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reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl%3A%2F%2Fapps.cp.%2FApps%2Fcb-polls%3FRIC%3DNZINTR%253DECI poll data

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Reuters poll graphic on the RBNZ monetary policy outlook: https://tmsnrt.rs/3Spl6qG

BENGALURU, Sept 30 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank will deliver its fifth half-point interest rate hike on Wednesday and do the same in November in an attempt to stem the tide of rising inflation, a Reuters poll of economists predicted.

Inflation hit a three-decade high in the first quarter and rose further to 7.3% in the second, despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) being the first among major central banks to start withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus.

However, the first-mover advantage has all but evaporated and the kiwi dollar is down more than 17% this year, which is likely to keep inflation elevated as a cheaper currency makes import prices higher.

That could force the RBNZ to follow its global peers with a hawkish course to contain price pressures whilst trying not to tip the economy into recession.

All 24 economists in the Sept. 26-29 Reuters poll forecast the RBNZ would hike its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.50% at its Oct. 5 meeting.

It has never raised rates by half a percentage point in five consecutive meetings since the OCR was introduced in March 1999.

"The RBNZ made it clear in August it strongly intends to raise the OCR by 50 bps at the October and November meetings. The data since then has provided no compelling reason to diverge from that plan," said Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ.

Nearly all economists have brought forward rate hike expectations from last month's poll and a majority, 17 of 22, now expected the OCR to reach 4.00% or above by end-2022, 50 basis points higher than August's poll.

Current poll medians showed rates would remain unchanged at 4.00% until end-2023, not far from the RBNZ's projected terminal rate of 4.10%.

But a strong minority of nearly 40% of economists expected rates to be higher than the predicted peak rate.

"If the RBNZ is to get on top of inflation it needs wages growth to slow. A 4.0% terminal cash rate is unlikely to do the job," said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.

"The risks to our 4.50% terminal OCR are skewed to the upside. As such we don't expect RBNZ rate cuts in 2023."

Inflation was predicted to remain well above the RBNZ's target range of 1-3% until at least end-2023. It was expected to average 6.5% this year and then slip to 3.5% in 2023, higher than the 6.0% and 2.8% predicted in July.

Economists also cautioned the risks to their inflation projection were skewed more towards faster price growth.

"The risks to inflation are becoming more skewed to the upside and the currency is now to blame. The weakness in the Kiwi dollar has become far more pronounced and the RBNZ may be forced to signal even more policy tightening is needed," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

"We believe the economic pain of such aggressive monetary tightening should be enough to tame inflation but the risk is clearly tilted to even more tightening, if the inflation beast refuses to retreat."

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)

(Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling and analysis by Arsh Mogre and Anant Chandak; Editing by Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable and Alex Richardson)