S&P GSCI NATURAL GAS INDEX
March 14 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures extended gains on Thursday, having hit their lowest level in over two weeks earlier in the session,
after a weekly report showed a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.4 cents, or 1.5%, to $1.682
per million British thermal units at 11:31 a.m. EDT (1531 GMT).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a larger-than-expected 9 billion cubic feet (bcf)
of gas out of storage during the week ended March 8. That was more than the 3-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll
and compares with a withdrawal of 65 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average decrease of 87 bcf
for this time of year.
That decrease left gas stockpiles about 37% above normal levels for this time of year.
The EIA report showed "a bigger withdrawal than expected, but it is still a small withdrawal compared to historical
averages... it is not really a bullish number," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
"The weather's been very mild for even for this time of year and there are some expectations for a little bit of a cold
front to come through, so that might help the market," he added.
Prices fell as low as $1.511 per mmBtu on Feb. 27, their lowest level since June 2020, as near-record output, mostly mild
weather and low heating demand this winter allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time
of year.
Those low prices will boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024, but cause gas production to drop for the first year
since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand for the fuel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's
(EIA) latest
outlook
.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 100.3 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in March, down from 104.1 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Output is down as several energy firms, including and Chesapeake Energy, delay well completions and cut
back on other drilling activities.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake will soon become the biggest producer after its merger with
Southwestern Energy.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 109.2 bcfd this week to 111.4 bcfd
next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Week ended Year ago Five-year
Week ended Mar 1 Mar 8 average
Mar 8 Actual Actual Mar 8
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-9 -40 -65 -87
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,325 2,334 1,989 1,696
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
37.1% 30.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub 2.41 2.66 3.60
1.65 1.67
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 13.72 13.04 14.39
8.00 7.91
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.59 14.39 14.31
8.48 8.47
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
235 236 291 303 307
U.S. GFS CDDs
13 12 17 11 9
U.S. GFS TDDs
248 248 308 314 316
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.7 95.1
100.3 100.3 100.6
U.S. Imports from Canada 8.6 8.4
7.3 7.6 7.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply 110.3 103.6
107.6 107.8 108.5
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 3.0
3.7 3.8 3.8
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.2 5.4
6.6 6.5 6.4
U.S. LNG Exports 13.2 9.2
13.4 13.1 12.6
U.S. Commercial 14.3 12.3
10.5 10.4 11.0
U.S. Residential 22.8 19.4
15.8 15.1 16.0
U.S. Power Plant 30.4 23.8
30.6 29.3 30.0
U.S. Industrial 24.1 26.8
23.5 23.6 24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 5.0
5.0 5.0 5.0
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.3 2.3
2.3 2.3 2.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 98.9 89.7
87.8 85.8 88.7
Total U.S. Demand 120.0 107.3
111.6 109.2 111.4
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Mar 15 Mar 8 Mar 1 Feb 23 Feb 16
Wind 15 16 13 11
15
Solar 4 4 4 4
5
Hydro 7 7 7 7
8
Other 1 1 1 1
1
Petroleum 0 0 0 0
0
Natural Gas 39 38 40 41
38
Coal 13 16 15 16
12
Nuclear 21 21 20 21
21
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub
1.25 1.57
Transco Z6 New York
1.09 1.27
PG&E Citygate
2.41 2.34
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
1.02 1.24
Chicago Citygate
1.18 1.29
Algonquin Citygate
1.20 1.35
SoCal Citygate
1.77 1.91
Waha Hub
1.09 0.20
AECO
1.52 1.20
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England
21.25 24.00
PJM West
18.75 25.50
Ercot North
32.75 16.50
Mid C
37.69 40.29
Palo Verde
8.50 3.75
SP-15
6.25 2.25
(Reporting by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru
Editing by Marguerita Choy)
US natgas prices climb on bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal
March 14, 2024 at 11:54 am EDT
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