Log in
E-mail
Password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
New member
Sign up for FREE
New customer
Discover our services
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 
OFFON

MarketScreener Homepage  >  Equities  >  Euronext Paris  >  Amundi    AMUN   FR0004125920

AMUNDI

(AMUN)
  Report
Real-time Quote. Real-time Euronext Paris - 01/20 11:35:21 am
66.75 EUR   -1.04%
01/11Dollar extends rebound as U.S. yields rise
RE
01/10HSBC to face shareholder heat on fossil fuels in AGM vote
RE
2020AMUNDI : Close to new upside potential
SummaryQuotesChartsNewsRatingsCalendarCompanyFinancialsConsensusRevisions 
SummaryMost relevantAll NewsPress ReleasesOfficial PublicationsSector newsMarketScreener StrategiesAnalyst Recommendations

U.S. bond volatility players eye 2021 inflation bump

11/30/2020 | 02:04pm EST
The U.S. flag is seen on a building on Wall St. in the financial district in New York

(Reuters) - After a decade of central bank bond buying, fund managers have begun to wonder if there is again money to be made in betting or hedging against volatility in the bond market caused by an economic recovery next year.

The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks expectations of volatility in Treasuries, is again languishing near all-time lows after a spike in March was quelled by U.S. Federal Reserve intervention.

But a handful of fund managers, and some major banks, warn of the risk of a spike in inflation next year that could spur losses for bond funds and more volatility before the Fed steps back in, or eventually even change the central bank's stance.

Nancy Davis, who manages the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF, said she has seen a jump in interest in recent weeks from investors worried about the impact of rebound in some of the consumer and asset prices quashed by this year's crisis.

She argues that while stock markets have accounted for COVID-19 vaccines spurring a swift recovery in 2021, debt market indicators of inflation have not budged, leaving bondholders exposed if headline price growth moves.

"Equities already seem to be pricing this in, but the rates market hasn't," Davis told the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF) last week.

"In the U.S., we are likely to get fiscal stimulus from the new administration combined with the loose monetary policy that could push inflation higher, it is probably an underpriced risk at this point," she added.

While any sustained spike in yields would likely be met by action from the Fed to talk them down, in the back of some investors' minds is the risk that officials could at some point be satisfied that economic growth justifies higher yields.

In the year through Nov. 18, Lipper data shows IVOL's assets under management rose more than nine times to $752.2 million.

OTHER SIGNS

As central bank bond purchases suppress rate volatility, investors have turned to markets like stocks and foreign exchange for signals on the macroeconomic outlook.

Wall Street's consensus is that inflation will remain fairly dormant. U.S. 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS), or inflation-linked bonds, show the anticipated "break-even" rate of inflation in five years at around 1.67%, below the Fed's average target of 2%.

Yields on both 5-year and 10-year TIPS have been firmly in negative territory since March and are currently at -1.31% and -0.92% respectively.

Five-year breakeven rates, however, have picked up from under 1% in June, and some houses have listed unexpected inflation moves as a risk.

Analysts at French fund manager Amundi said this month that overshooting inflation is unlikely, but recommended investors consider inflation-linked bonds to position for a remote yet possible snapback in inflation under an 'upside scenario'.

Morgan Stanley strategists recommend buying 5-year breakevens, forecasting break-even inflation rates across the U.S. curve to rise above 2% by the end of 2021.

Countering that is the wide-ranging conviction that, even if inflation does tip higher, Fed buying will keep fixed rate bond prices high and quell yields as it seeks a more durable expansion in inflation expectations and growth.

Another fund manager focusing on the need to vary bond strategies, David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors, told the GMF the Fed would keep pressure on yields. But he also pointed to a bumpier road ahead.

"The underlying theme here is that we believe there could be increased volatility in the future," he said.

(Reporting by Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Aaron Saldanha in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Kate Duguid and Megan Davies in New York; editing by Patrick Graham and Bernadette Baum)

By Aaron Saldanha and Lisa Pauline Mattackal


© Reuters 2020
All news about AMUNDI
01/11Dollar extends rebound as U.S. yields rise
RE
01/10HSBC to face shareholder heat on fossil fuels in AGM vote
RE
2020AMUNDI : launches Amundi DAX 50 ESG UCITS ETF
PU
2020French bank SocGen seals partnerships with asset managers
RE
2020Amundi gives bond warning to State Bank of India over coal mine
RE
2020France's Credit Agricole makes $875 million buyout offer for Italy's Creval
RE
2020China set to sell its first negative-yielding government bond
RE
2020Amundi and BNP vie for SocGen asset manager Lyxor - sources
RE
2020AMUNDI : Success for We Share Amundi, the capital increase reserved for employe..
GL
2020AMUNDI : Success for We Share Amundi, the capital increase reserved for employe..
AQ
More news
Financials
Sales 2020 2 536 M 3 070 M 3 070 M
Net income 2020 865 M 1 047 M 1 047 M
Net Debt 2020 983 M 1 190 M 1 190 M
P/E ratio 2020 15,8x
Yield 2020 4,19%
Capitalization 13 582 M 16 463 M 16 445 M
EV / Sales 2020 5,74x
EV / Sales 2021 5,24x
Nbr of Employees 4 725
Free-Float 29,4%
Chart AMUNDI
Duration : Period :
Amundi Technical Analysis Chart | MarketScreener
Full-screen chart
Technical analysis trends AMUNDI
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsNeutralBullishNeutral
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 20
Average target price 74,53 €
Last Close Price 67,45 €
Spread / Highest target 22,2%
Spread / Average Target 10,5%
Spread / Lowest Target -23,1%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
NameTitle
Yves Perrier Chief Executive Officer & Director
Xavier Musca Chairman
Guillaume Lesage Head-Operations, Services & Technology Division
Domenico Aiello Chief Financial Officer
William Kadouch-Chassaing Director
Sector and Competitors
1st jan.Capitalization (M$)
AMUNDI0.97%16 463
THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC.-0.62%44 699
LEGAL & GENERAL PLC0.64%21 654
FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC.8.60%13 730
THE CARLYLE GROUP INC.9.03%12 119
ESR CAYMAN LIMITED-6.47%10 421