GoldmanInvestorSachsPre entationEnergy,
Clean TechOctober& Utilities2023
Conference
January 2024
NYSE: AESI
Important Disclosures
Forward-Looking Statements
This Presentation contains "forward-looking statements" of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ("Atlas," the "Company," "AESI," "we," "us" or "our") within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Statements that are predictive or prospective in nature, that depend upon or refer to future events or conditions or that include the words "may," "assume," "forecast," "position," "strategy," "potential," "continue," "could," "will," "plan," "project," "budget," "predict," "pursue," "target," "seek," "objective," "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "intend," "estimate," and other expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and trends and that do not relate to historical matters identify forward-looking statements. Our forward-looking statements include statements about our business strategy, industry, future operations and profitability, expected capital expenditures and the impact of such expenditures on our performance, our recent corporate reorganization transaction (the "Up-C Simplification"), our financial position, production, revenues and losses, our capital programs, management changes, current and potential future long-term contracts and our future business and financial performance. Although forward-looking statements reflect our good faith beliefs at the time they are made, we caution you that these forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility stemming from geopolitical instability due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine military conflicts, adverse developments affecting the financial services industry, our ability to complete growth projects, including the Dune Express, on time and on budget, the expected benefits of the Up-C Simplification and the related impact on existing stakeholders, estimates regarding future market capitalization and the anticipated financial impact of the Up-C Simplification, actions of OPEC+ to set and maintain oil production levels, the level of production of crude oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons and the resultant market prices of crude oil, inflation, environmental risks, operating risks, regulatory changes, lack of demand, market share growth, the uncertainty inherent in projecting future rates of reserves, production, cash flow, access to capital, the timing of development expenditures and other factors discussed or referenced in our filings made from time to time with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including those discussed in our prospectus, dated September 11, 2023, filed with the SEC pursuant to Rule 424(b) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended on September 12, 2023 in connection with our Up-C Simplification, and any subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this Presentation. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties occur, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results and plans could differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements, expressed or implied, are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. This cautionary statement should also be considered in connection with any subsequent written or oral forward-looking statements that we or persons acting on our behalf may issue. Except as otherwise required by applicable law, we disclaim any duty and do not intend to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this Presentation.
Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Adjusted Free Cash Flow Margin, Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion and Maintenance Capital Expenditures are non-GAAP supplemental financial measures used by our management and by external users of our financial statements such as investors, research analysts and others, in the case of Adjusted EBITDA, to assess our operating performance on a consistent basis across periods by removing the effects of development activities, provide views on capital resources available to organically fund growth projects and, in the case of Adjusted Free Cash Flow, to assess the financial performance of our assets and their ability to sustain dividends over the long term without regard to financing methods, capital structure, levels of reinvestment or historical cost basis. These measures do not represent and should not be considered alternatives to, or more meaningful than, net income, income from operations, net cash provided by operating activities, or any other measure of financial performance presented in accordance with GAAP as measures of our financial performance. Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow have important limitations as analytical tools because they exclude some but not all items that affect net income, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure. Our computation of Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Adjusted Free Cash Flow Margin, Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion and Maintenance Capital Expenditures may differ from computations of similarly titled measures of other companies.
We define Adjusted EBITDA as net income before depreciation, depletion and accretion, interest expense, income tax expense, stock and unit-based compensation, loss on extinguishment of debt, unrealized commodity derivative gain (loss), and non-recurring transaction cost. We define Adjusted EBITDA Margin as Adjusted EBITDA divided by total sales. We define Adjusted Free Cash Flow as Adjusted EBITDA less Maintenance Capital Expenditures. We define Maintenance Capital Expenditures as capital expenditures less growth capital expenditures. We define Adjusted Free Cash Flow Margin as Adjusted Free Cash Flow divided by total sales. We define Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion as Adjusted Free Cash Flow divided by Adjusted EBITDA.
Reserves
This Presentation includes frac sand reserve and resource estimates based on engineering, economic and geological data assembled and analyzed by our mining engineers, which are reviewed periodically by outside firms. However, frac sand reserve estimates are by nature imprecise and depend to some extent on statistical inferences drawn from available drilling data, which may prove unreliable. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities and qualities of frac sand reserves and non-reserve frac sand deposits and costs to mine recoverable reserves, many of which are beyond our control and any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. These uncertainties include: geological and mining conditions that may not be fully identified by available data or that may differ from experience; assumptions regarding the effectiveness of our mining, quality control and training programs; assumptions concerning future prices of frac sand, operating costs, mining technology improvements, development costs and reclamation costs; and assumptions concerning future effects of regulation, including the issuance of required permits and taxes by governmental agencies.
Trademarks and Trade Names
The Company owns or has rights to various trademarks, service marks and trade names that it uses in connection with the operation of its business. This Presentation also contains trademarks, service marks and trade names of third parties, which are the property of their respective owners. The use or display of third parties' trademarks, service marks, trade names or products in this Presentation is not intended to, and does not imply, a relationship with the Company, or an endorsement or sponsorship by or of the Company. Solely for convenience, the trademarks, service marks and trade names referred to in this Presentation may appear without the ®, TM or SM symbols, but such references are not intended to indicate, in any way, that the Company will not assert, to the fullest extent under applicable law, its rights or the rights of the applicable licensor to these trademarks, service marks and trade names.
Industry and Market Data
This Presentation has been prepared by the Company and includes market data and certain other statistical information from third-party sources, including independent industry publications, government publications, and other published independent sources. Although we believe these third-party sources are reliable as of their respective dates, we have not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of this information. Some data is also based on our good faith estimates, which are derived from our review of internal sources as well as the third-party sources described above. The industry in which we operate is subject to a high degree of uncertainty and risk due to a variety of factors. These and other factors could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in these third-party publications. Additionally, descriptions herein of market conditions and opportunities are presented for informational purposes only; there can be no assurance that such conditions will actually occur. Please also see "Forward-Looking Statements" disclaimer above.
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 2 |
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) at a Glance
Market Capitalization (1)
$1.8B
Enterprise Value (1)
$1.7B
Quarterly Dividend (2)
$0.20 / share
Resource Life (3)
100+ years
Employees
~490
Headquarters
Austin, Texas
Stock Symbol
NYSE: AESI
4Q'23 Dune Express Update Video
ctrl + click to play
- Source: Bloomberg. Reflects 3Q'23 financial information and reflects a share price as of 27-December-2023. Enterprise value calculated as market capitalization, plus debt, less cash & equivalents. | (2) Q3 2023 dividend payment date of 16-November-2023 to holders of record as of 09-November-2023. Reflects a base dividend of $0.15 per share and variable dividend of $0.05 per share. | (3) Resource life calculated as (reserves + resources) / 15mmtpy of annual production capacity. | Video link https://vimeo.com/894205858.
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 3 |
Management's E&P Background and Track Record of Value Creation
Disruptive Oil & Gas Ventures with Track Record of Success
Pioneering Use of 3D Seismic, Disruption in Horizontal D&C
Techniques within the Oil-Rich Bakken Shale
IPO in 1997
Sold to Statoil in 2011 for $4.7 billion
Drilling & Completion Innovations in Delaware Basin;
Early Adopter of E-Frac & Proppant Loading >5,000 lbs per foot
Sold to Diamondback Energy, Inc. in 2017 for $2.6 billion
Technically Sophisticated Tier One Minerals Model
IPO in 2019
Sitio Merger = $2.2 billion value to MNRL 145% total return from IPO to sale(1)
Differentiated Permian Pure-Play Proppant Producer with
Game Changing Logistics Platform
Q3 2023 Adj. EBITDA of $84.1 million (2)
Q3 2023 Adj. EBITDA Margin of 53% (2)
Q3 2023 Net Income of $56.3 million
Q3 2023 Net Income Margin of 36% (2)
Management's E&P Background Drives Customer Success
What We Observed Through an E&P Operator's Lens
The Permian is North America's premier shale resource
Proppant is mission-critical to efficient shale development
- Logistics challenges are a barrier to optimization
The sector was primed for positive disruption due to inefficiencies:
- Out-of-basinproppant not cost effective
- Plants not designed for just-in-time demand model
- Local roadways overwhelmed by robust activity levels Need for high-quality, reliable and efficient in-basin sand
Our Differentiated Approach to Transform the Market + SESP
Focused on giant open dunes with unique geologic attributes
- Plentiful water, quality product, high mining yields
Plants designed with operator mindset; scaled for efficiency with multiple redundancies to minimize downtime
Culture of technological innovation drives Atlas's growth
We have "walked the walk" on sustainability, putting shareholders and corporate integrity first to drive Sustainable Environmental and Social Progress ("SESP")
Note: Past performance by members of our management team, our directors or their respective affiliates may not be indicative of future performance. | Source: Bloomberg, public disclosures. | (1) Total return calculated as cumulative dividends plus stock price appreciation (IPO date through 28-Dec-2022, includes the reinvestment of dividends and is pro forma for Sitio merger). | (2) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measures.
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 4 |
Atlas is a Leading Pure-Play Permian Proppant and Logistics Provider
Key Investment Highlights
Compelling Valuation and Growth Profile
Trading at a discount to peer group (1)
High growth potential from ongoing capital projects
Robust Cash Flow Generation + Strong Financial Position
Strong and resilient margins
Strong balance sheet with low financial leverage
Low capital intensity required to maintain core business
High Quality, Differentiated Asset Base
Giant open dunes are best-in-class resource
Plants with automation + redundancy maximize efficiency
Water access enables low-cost electric dredge mining Dune express is a step-change in sand logistics
Fit-for-purpose trucking assets with expanded payloads
Proven Team, Compelling Track Record, E&P Experience
Bud Brigham led team with a track record of performance
Long-time E&P operators now optimizing sand solutions
Innovators applying proven technology in novel ways Proven ability to return capital to shareholders
Pure Play Permian Asset Base (2)
Atlas & Sustainable Environmental and Social Progress
A long-term focus on shareholders and profits also produces favorable environmental and social outcomes:
Dune Express: 42-mile conveyor to transport sand into core Permian acreage will make roads safer, reduce emissions
Fit-for-purpose wellsite delivery assets with significantly expanded payloads and the potential for automation further aims to enhance safety and emissions improvements
Electric dredge mining = lower cost, lower emissions
Source: Enverus, Baker Hughes, Public Filings, Bloomberg Consensus data. | (1) As of 27-December-2023. Peer group includes: SLB, BKR, HAL, NOV, FTI, WHD, OII, CHX, SES, SOI, ARIS, SLCA, USAC, AROC, XPRO, HLX. |
(2) Represents planned Dune Express route based on secured rights-of-way and federal permits.
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 5 |
The Permian's Giant Open Dunes are a Tier One Resource
Geology of open dunes separates AESI on scale, costs, margins & quality
Improved yields relative to off-dune deposits enhances economics
Exceptional quality (high crush strength, low turbidity, etc.)
Large, deep deposits with consistent reserve mix
Costless Pecos Valley Aquifer provides unique dredging & washing advantage Over 100 years of resource life (1)
Up to ~100 feet of consistent stacked pay produces > economic yields
Illustrative Cross-Section
Atlas Giant Open Dune Advantage | Off-Dune Deposit | |
Deposit Yields: ~85-90% | Deposit Yields: ~65-70% | |
Premier Assets Bookending the Winkler Sand Trend
Atlas Kermit:
• 5,825 gross acres (all on Kermit Giant Open Dune)
• ~93% WI / ~87% to 93% NRI
• Atlas holds >50% of the Kermit Giant Open Dune's areal extent
• Atlas holds both fee and leases
Atlas Monahans:
• ~32,000 gross acres (~8,750 on the Monahans Giant Open Dune, or ~100% of this dune excluding the state park)
Legend
Stabilized Dune
Zones
Thin Buried soil
horizons
Saturated thickness
Up to ~100 ft. of Stacked Pay
~40ft to ~50ft ft. of Payable Depth
Vegetation
Silty Sand Sheet
Stabilized Dune
Caliche (~5-30ft thick)
Stabilized Dune
Clay
Stabilized Dune
Silt & Clay
Stabilized Dune
Caliche
Stabilized Dune
Silt & Clay
• 100% WI / 92% to 97% NRI depending on proppant prices
• Leased
State Park
Source: Atlas 2022 Reserve Report (produced by John T. Boyd Company), management estimates, illustrative of processes and characteristics of different styles of Permian aeolian deposits. | (1) Resource life calculated as
(reserves + resources) / 15mmtpy of annual production capacity. | Note: WI = Working Interest, defined as the average % interest in the gross acres that Atlas owns or leases out of the areal extent of the acreage footprint. NRI = Net Revenue Interest, defined as WI * (1- average royalty rate).
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 6 |
The Atlas Energy Solutions Advantage
Premium Giant Open Dune Geology
100+ years of resource life at 15.0 mmtpy of production
Lack of organics and impurities result in higher mining yields
Premium quality product with high crush strength
Advantaged Water Access
Ample costless water provides Atlas with the distinct advantage
of deploying the Permian's only electric dredge mining assets
Results in lower mining cost and is more environmentally sustainable than traditional mining methods utilizing yellow iron
Next Generation Plant Design
Redundancies maximize utilization rates
Plants designed to enable automation, remote operations leading to the realization of lower labor intensity
Logistics Differentiation
High-capacity trailers & multi-trailer configuration allow Atlas to exceed industry standard payloads by to 3x - 4x
Remote command center ensures superior in-field customer service with the industry's fastest response times
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 7 |
New Remote Command Center & Drop-Depot Facilities Meaningfully Expands Atlas' Delaware Basin Footprint
Overview
Our remote in-field command center is presently located 18-miles west of our Kermit facility and was commissioned in 3Q'23
Adding a third drop-depot facility and target in service by end of 1Q'24
- Expands our multi-trailer footprint to over 1,500 square miles in the Delaware Basin
- A fourth drop-depot is expected to come on-line later in 2024; expands multi-trailer footprint to over 1,700 square miles
Remote command center designed to be completely mobile, and will be optimally placed in the heart of the Delaware Basin near our end-of-line loadout facility upon completion of the Dune Express
- Places our logistics base of operations proximal to customer wellsite compared to competitors, ultimately ensuring superior in- field customer service with the industry leading response times
Expanding Operational Footprint
Atlas will have a multi-trailer operational footprint in the Delaware Basin of
~1,500 square-miles
In-Service end of Q3 2023
In-Service end of Q1 2023
Target In-Service
end of Q1 2024
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 8 |
AESI Trucking Fleet Update: Significantly Expanding Payloads
Summary Update / Latest Developments | AESI Payloads on Private Roads Far Exceed Industry Norm |
~20% of our third quarter deliveries utilized multi-trailers; seeing continued customer adoption
105
4.4x
102 of 120 trucks received to-date
120-truck fleet expected to haul 13mmtpy of proppant once Dune Express is online
Equipment deliveries progressing on-time and on-budget
Driver hiring plan is on-time and on-budget
A.I. based safety and efficiency training implemented
Atlas's efficient supply chain model enables significantly expanded payloads to run on private roads
Average payload delivered | 70 |
in Q3 2023: ~37 tons |
Average payload delivered | 2.9x |
in Q2 2023: ~31 tons |
35
24 1.5x
1.0x
2022 Average | Capacity of 1x | Capacity of 2x | Capacity of 3x | |
Payload Filled at | AESI Trailer | AESI Trailers | AESI Trailers | |
Atlas Plants | ||||
Payload Size (tons) | Multiple of Industry Standard | |||
December 26, 2022:
First Atlas Truck Arrives at Kermit
Atlas Trucking Fleet Milestones
January 3, 2023: | March 20, 2023: | ||||
First Delivery with | First Double | ||||
Atlas assets | Trailer Delivery | ||||
~35 ton / truck payload | ~70 ton / truck payload | ||||
April 5, 2023:
First Triple
Trailer Delivery:
~100 ton / truck payload
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 9 |
Shortened Distances and Expanded Payloads Drive Efficiencies
Positive disruption of the Permian trucking model reduces road traffic
Conventional Trucking | Atlas Drop-Depot Model | Atlas / Dune Express |
~23 tons
~23 tons | ~70+ tons | ~70+ tons |
130-miles round trip | 35-miles round trip | 75-miles round trip | 42-milesone-way | 20-miles round trip | ||||
Loadout | Well Site | Loadout | Drop-Depot | Well Site | Loadout @ Kermit | Loadout | Well Site |
Increased Payloads when Combined with Less Truck Traffic Increases Efficiencies (1)
Delivered Truck Loads (1): | 426 | 143 | 143 |
Estimated Haul Distance: | 130-Mile Haul | 110-Mile Haul | 20-Mile Haul |
55,319
5,532
~54% Reduction in Miles Driven
25,608
49,787 | 10,714 | |||||
~95% Reduction in Miles Driven | ||||||
14,894 | 2,857 | |||||
Conventional Trucking | Drop-Depot Model | Dune Express | ||||
Public Road Mileage | Private Road Mileage | |||||
- Assumes a Permian well requires 10,000 tons of sand for completion and represents a well ~60 miles from the Atlas Kermit facility. Conventional Trucking utilizes 23.5-ton payload trailers. Drop-Depot and Dune Express utilize high-capacity Atlas double-trailers with 70-ton payloads.
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) | January 2024 | 10 |
Attachments
- Original Link
- Original Document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. published this content on 03 January 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 January 2024 12:52:37 UTC.