Banque nationale de Belgique : Press release - NAI - Quarterly aggregates (2021-III)PDF

National Accounts Institute

2021-11-30

PRESS RELEASE

Links:	NBB.Stat	General information

The economic activity reaches the pre-crisis level for the first time

Economic growth

Seasonally and calendar adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms increased by 2.0 % in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the previous quarter. In comparison with a year ago, the third quarter of 2020, growth came to 4.9 %. For the first time since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the pre-crisis level of economic activity was reached and even slightly exceeded.

Compared with the previous quarter, value added was up by 2.5 % in services. But it was down by 0.4 % in industry and 0.8 % in construction1.

Domestic demand

Households raised their consumption expenditure by 6.3 %. This sharp rise is primarily due to the improvement in the health situation and the relaxation of the pandemic restrictions in various sectors, such as hotels and catering, culture, leisure and tourism. Expenditure on tourism rose sharply, as well as spending on non-durable goods and services too (+5.0 %). By contrast, the rise for consumer durables was more limited (+1.1 %). Households' investment in housing also increased (+1.5 %). The general government sector stepped up its consumption expenditure by 3.8 %. Public investment expenditure increased by 9.8 %, growth largely explained by spending of the Ministry of Defence. Business investment contracted by 2.4 %.

Foreign trade

As exports of goods and services fell more sharply (-1.1 %) than imports (-0.2 %), net exports of goods and services had a negative impact on the change in GDP growth (-0.8 percentage point).

Employment

In the third quarter of 2021, domestic employment expanded by 0.7 % on a quarterly basis, an increase of 34 600 persons. Compared with the corresponding period of 2020, the number of workers rose by

2.4 % (an increase of 116 000 persons). This trend is attributable to both a rise in the number of salaried workers as the number of self-employed people: both posted quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7 %.

1 The GDP figure also depends on taxes on products less subsidies which rose by 4.4 % on a quarterly basis.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	VAT BE 0203.201.340
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	RLP Brussels

Compared with the flash estimate of 28 October 2021, the newly published growth figures are a lot more accurate. The main administrative data (namely, VAT data, industrial production statistics, etc.) were equally available, as is customary with the 60-day estimate of GDP for a given quarter. The main uncertainties stemming from the pandemic in this estimate are currently in the area of non-market production and the components of the expenditure approach, for which the available information was still fairly limited and for which traditional estimation models were not always applicable. It is here that wider revisions are possible in the future and, therefore, also at the overall GDP level.

As far as seasonal adjustment of the data series is concerned, the recent Eurostat guidanceon the subject has been closely followed in order to estimate the impact of COVID-19 as accurately as possible.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	VAT BE 0203.201.340
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	RLP Brussels

GDP, QUARTERLY GROWTH IN VOLUME

GDP AND THE ECONOMIC CYCLE

(data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)			40
	Percentage change compared to	15
		30
	corresponding quarter of	previous quarter	10	20
	the previous year
			10
2019 I	2.1	0.3	5	0
II	2.1	0.4
0	−10
III	2.4	0.7
	−20
IV	2.1	0.7
−5	−30
2020 I	-1.4	-3.1
II	-13.3	-11.6	−10	−40
III	-3.6	11.9		−50
IV	-4.4	-0.1	−15	−60
2021 I	0.0	1.2		2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

	II		15.1		1.7						GDP growth in volume
	III		4.9		2.0						(percentage change compared to
											the corresponding quarter of the previous year)

Business survey

(smoothed data, right-hand scale)

Business survey

(gross data, right-hand scale)

MAIN COMPONENTS

(percentage change in volume compared to the preceding period, data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)

		2019			2020				2021
		IV	I	II	III	IV		I	II	III
	1. Value added
	Industry	0.6	-1.1	-12.5	11.6	5.0		2.3	1.1	-0.4
	Construction	1.5	-3.4	-14.0	17.1	2.2		1.4	0.3	-0.8
	Services	0.6	-3.0	-11.2	10.8	-0.5		0.8	1.6	2.5
	p.m. GDP	0.7	-3.1	-11.6	11.9	-0.1		1.2	1.7	2.0
	2. Expenditure
	Private consumption expenditure (1)	0.4	-5.6	-12.7	17.2	-6.9		1.3	3.5	6.3
	Final consumption expenditure of general									3.8
	government	1.1	-0.5	-3.0	4.2	-1.3		1.0	1.0
	Total gross fixed capital formation	0.1	-2.3	-17.8	18.7	3.4		2.7	1.3	-0.2
	Business	0.7	-2.6	-20.7	21.4	4.4		2.4	1.5	-2.4
	Housing
	1.2	-4.5	-14.2	18.4	0.3		3.9	0.8	1.5
	Public administration
	-5.4	3.8	-6.4	5.5	3.7		2.3	1.3	9.8
	Domestic demand (excluding inventories)
	0.5	-3.6	-11.6	14.1	-3.1		1.6	2.3	4.0
	Change in inventories (2)	0.0	0.4	-0.1	-1.4	1.9		-0.9	-0.2	-1.1
	Exports of goods and services	1.2	-1.4	-13.2	8.4	4.3		1.6	5.3	-1.1
	Imports of goods and services	1.0	-1.5	-13.2	9.2	2.9		0.9	5.9	-0.2
	Net exports of goods and services (2)	0.2	0.1	-0.1	-0.5	1.1		0.6	-0.3	-0.8
	3. Labour market
	Total number of workers	0.4	-0.3	-0.7	0.2	0.6		0.3	0.8	0.7

1. Including non-profit institutions serving households.
2. Contribution to the change in GDP.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	VAT BE 0203.201.340
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	RLP Brussels