Bwin.party (BPTY) was formed from the merger of bwin Interactive Entertainment AG and PartyGaming Plc in March 2011 to create the world’s largest listed online gaming. Incorporated and licensed in Gibraltar, the Group has over 2,700 employees across Europe, India, Israel and the US. It commands leading market positions in each of four product: online sports betting, poker, casino and bingo with some of the world’s biggest online gaming brands including bwin, PartyPoker, PartyCasino and Foxy Bingo.

A month ago, we forecasted a downtrend with a target price at GBp 102. This target was reached and we reiterate our opinion. In a bearish trend, BPTY continues to decline.

From a fundamental viewpoint, the group is in a bad financial situation. Analysts have recently downgraded their forecasts for earnings per share. This indicator is often a precursor of a declining profitability and a worsening climate of investor confidence. Even if the company has a lot of cash, it is overvalued : BPTY’s PER for 2012 is 38.9x and 16.3x for 2013 and growth rates are low.

From a technical viewpoint, prices are in a downward trend. Moving averages are trending down and put pressure on the stock, which confirms this downward momentum. This trend may continue toward the GBp 95 support. Moreover, the security is testing a pivot point at GBp 102.6 in weekly data and the significant breakdown of this level would be a new bearish signal.

Taking into account fundamental and technical elements, investors can initiate a short position in BPTY with a first target price at GBp 95. If the security crosses this level, the second target price will be the long term support at GBp 83.4. A return towards GBp 115.5, the short-term resistance area, will invalidate the bearish strategy, which justifies a stop loss.