Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

CGBD

US8722801029

Corporate Financial Services

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Mar. 04	Carlyle Secured Lending Appoints Justin Plouffe as Chief Executive	MT
Mar. 04	Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc Announces Management Changes	CI

Carlyle Secured Lending : Q4 2023 Earnings Transcript

March 08, 2024 at 11:33 am EST

Corrected Transcript

27-Feb-2024

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW -E)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call

	Total Pages: 15
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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS

Daniel Hahn	Thomas M. Hennigan
Managing Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc	Chief Financial Officer & Chief Risk Officer, Carlyle Secured Lending,
Aren LeeKong	Inc

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

OTHER PARTICIPANTS

Bryce Rowe	Arren Cyganovich
Analyst, B. Riley Securities, Inc.	Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Finian O'Shea	Melissa Wedel
Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC	Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC

MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION

Operator: Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]

As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Daniel Hahn, Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Daniel Hahn

Managing Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Good morning and welcome to Carlyle Secured Lending's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. With me on the call this morning is Aren LeeKong, our Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Hennigan, our Chief Financial officer.

Last night we filed our Form 10-K and issued a press release with the presentation of our results, which are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Following our remarks today, we will hold a question- and-answer session for analysts and institutional investors. This call is being webcast and a replay will be available on our website.

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance and any undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K.

These risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle Secured Lending assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Aren.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining. As has become custom, I will focus my remarks on three topics for today's call.

First, I'll provide an overview of the fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. Next, I'll touch on the current market environment and finally I'll conclude with a few comments on the quarter's investment activity and portfolio positioning.

Starting off with earnings, we continue to see our financial performance benefit from the higher base rate environment. In the fourth quarter, we generated net investment income of $0.56 per share, which is an increase of 8% from the prior quarter and represents an annual yield of 13% based on 12/31 NAV. This continues the trend upward from last quarter and the LTM period.

As a result of our continued execution of our strategy, the quality of our portfolio and our confidence in the future beginning this quarter, we are increasing the base dividend by $0.03 from $0.37 to $0.40 per share. Our board of directors declared a total first quarter dividend of $0.48 per share, consisting of our new base dividend of $0.40 plus an $0.08 supplemental, a total increase of 9% compared to the prior quarter and an increase of 8% on the base dividend.

Our net asset value as of December 31 was $16.99 per share. That's up $0.13 or approximately 1% from the September 30 period, primarily as a result of our Q4 earnings outpacing our dividend.

Turning now to the market environment. 2023 was defined by market volatility, slow private equity capital formation and muted M&A activity for most of the year.

For context, private equity deal activity and M&A activity were down significantly in 2023 compared to 2022 and 2021, though there was a pickup in M&A activity in the fourth quarter.

With this backdrop throughout the year, our investment team leveraged the breadth and depth of the OneCarlyle platform to drive value in the evolving market environment by generating significant volume across our existing portfolio of borrowers and Carlyle's broad sourcing network.

Leveraging our incumbencies allowed us to source transactions where we had diligence and information advantages and existing portfolio companies accounted for approximately half of our deal closings during the year.

Our flexible origination capabilities enabled us to source transactions from the lower end of the middle market at $25 million of EBITDA and opportunistically all the way up to $450 million of EBITDA in the last year. That includes sponsored and non-sponsored companies across North America and Europe.

Outside of our core middle market strategy, we leveraged the OneCarlyle network to source complimentary differentiated specialty lending transactions within the asset based and recurring revenue markets. These trends were evident throughout the year and continue with fourth quarter origination activity.

We continue to be pleased with the overall credit performance of our existing portfolio with revenue and EBITDA up quarter-over-quarter and since inception.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

Compared to the prior year, portfolio company revenue and EBITDA both expanded by an average of approximately 13% and compared to the prior quarter, 1% and 3%, respectively.

Non-accruals were stable in the fourth quarter. And as Tom will discuss in detail later, we expect these levels to improve in the coming quarter.

Tactical origination activity, strong credit fundamentals and the current rate environment drove record income for CGBD. Despite the rising base rate environment over the last two years, we have been intentionally conservative with our dividend through the cycle.

In our view, our new dividend policy, which Tom will expand upon later, provides a sustainable base dividend along with the transparent framework for supplemental dividends that will investors to better anchor their expectations.

Lastly, I'd like to spend a few minutes on current positioning. Our portfolio remains highly diversified and is comprised of 173 investments in 128 companies across over 25 industries.

The median EBITDA across our portfolio at the end of the quarter was $76 million. The average exposure in any single portfolio company is less than 1% and 95% of our investments are in senior secured loans.

I'll now turn the call over to our CFO, Tom Hennigan.

Thomas M. Hennigan

Chief Financial Officer & Chief Risk Officer, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Thanks, Aren. Today, I'll begin with a review of our fourth quarter earnings. Then I'll discuss portfolio performance and I'll conclude with detail on our balance sheet positioning.

As Aren previewed, we had another strong quarter on the earnings front. Total investment income for the fourth quarter was $63 million, up about $2 million from the prior quarter.

This increase was driven by the continued positive impact of base rates and an increase in both other income and OID acceleration, which were aided by prepayment activity.

Total expenses of $34 million were flat versus prior quarter. Of note, total interest expense was up modestly as base rates stabilized during the quarter.

The result was net investment income for the fourth quarter of $28 million or $0.56 per share, up nearly 8% from the prior quarter. And this level represents an all-time high for core NII in any quarter.

Our board of directors declared the dividends for the first quarter of 2024 at a total level of $0.48 per share. That's comprised of the new $0.40 base dividend, plus an $0.08 supplemental, which is payable to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 29.

This total dividend level reflects an increase of 9% over the previous $0.44 per share and reflects the earnings power and stability of our portfolio despite a complex macroeconomic environment.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

Our base dividend coverage of 140% for the quarter remains above the BDC peer set average, and we've grown the base dividend by 25% since 2022. At the same time, the total dividend level also represents an attractive yield of over 12% based on the recent share price.

In terms of the forward outlook for earnings for the rest of 2024, we see stability at the $0.50-plus level based on the latest interest rate curves and our current conservative positioning on leverage.

Despite rising rates, we've maintained a conservative disciplined approach that we believe will enable us to continue consistent dividend payouts in a variety of rate environments, including when rates normalize, to remain highly confident in our ability to comfortably meet and exceed our new $0.40 base dividend, and continue paying out supplemental dividends each quarter.

And going forward, we're going to shift to a floating supplemental dividend construct and target paying out at least 50% of excess earnings through the supplemental dividend, which will allow us to be flexible as the portfolio evolves and base rates fluctuate.

On valuations, our total aggregate realized and unrealized net gain was about $0.5 million for the quarter, supported by a slight net positive movement in valuations. This increase in valuations combined with Q4 earnings exceeding the dividend resulted in our NAV increasing from $16.86 to $16.99 per share.

Turning to the portfolio. We continue to see overall stability in credit quality across the book. Similar to last quarter, there were no new non-accruals and no additions to our watch list, which are deals with risk ratings 4 or 5.

Total non-accruals were effectively flat quarter-over-quarter. And we're very pleased to report that Dermatology Associates was successfully recapitalized in early February with the lenders taking equity control. So we expect an improvement in non-accruals when we report March results. We continue to proactively manage the portfolio and are working with sponsors to ensure borrowers have adequate liquidity.

You'll see that PIK interest ticked up over the course of 2023. In almost all cases when we provided PIK relief for existing borrowers, that was accompanied by significant equity support from the sponsor.

I'll finish by touching on our financing facilities and leverage. We continue to be well positioned on the right side of our balance sheet. Leverage is down quarter-over-quarter and we're intentionally running leverage conservatively at the lower end of our target range to maintain the flexibility to invest in attractive opportunities.

Statutory leverage was about 1.2 times and net financial leverage ended the quarter modestly lower, right about 1 turn, the lowest level since early 2022. This positioning allows us to remain opportunistic as the macroeconomic environment evolves and deal activity looks to pick up in 2024.

With that, I'll turn it back to Aren.

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Thanks, Tom. I would like to finish by highlighting the consistency of our investment approach and reiterate our overall investment strategy.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

We are primarily focused on making senior secured floating rate investments to US companies backed by high quality sponsors primarily in the mid-market.

Market demand for private credit remains high, and we continue to focus on sourcing transactions with significant equity cushions, attractive leverage levels, strong documentation and attractive spreads relative to not only the current market, but also historical originations through our disciplined underwriting, prudent portfolio construction, and conservative approach to risk management.

With attractive new originations, a stable portfolio and reduced non-accruals, we benefited from continued execution of our strategy in 2023 and remain committed to delivering a non-volatile cash flow stream to our investors through consistent income and solid credit performance.

I'd like to now hand the call over to the operator to take your questions. And thank you so much.

QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION

Operator: Certainly, one moment for our first questions. And our first question comes from the line of Bryce Rowe from B Riley. Your question, please.

Bryce Rowe

Analyst, B. Riley Securities, Inc.

Thanks a lot. Good morning.

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Hey, Bryce how are you doing?

Bryce Rowe

Analyst, B. Riley Securities, Inc.

I'm good. I'm good. Thanks, Aren. I wanted to maybe piggyback on some of the prepared comments there around a potential pickup in activity. We've heard that from other BDCs. And if you could kind of just help us think about what that might look like, especially relative to the leverage profile of your balance sheet at this point. I mean, you've noted that you're at one of the lowest leverage points in quite a while. So just kind of want to understand how that could evolve over the course of 2024.

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Yeah. So as usual, you ask a question probably has multi facets. So when we think of leverage, I'll just start there, and Tom and Dan [ph] should hop in a bit like (00:14:03) but that is a sort of multivariable topic.

So one, we're able to in today's market originate loans that add [ph] S plus, 6%-plus (00:14:15). I think last year the average loan in CGBD was probably around [ph] S plus 6.50% (00:14:20). The team here will tell me if I'm off by a few basis points.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

You're able to actually pay out that sustainable and non-volatile cash flow stream, which is actually the ultimate product of any BDC without being over levered.

And Bryce, you and I and the team talked about this behind closed doors many times. The goal here isn't to run hot just for the sake of being invested, the goal here is to pay off [ph] debt, that (00:14:47) non-volatile cash flow stream.

So for us, the leverage is really just a function of the rest of the strategy. So, in terms of a pickup in - and I'm just going through the fourth quarter. So there was a pickup in transactions in the fourth quarter and the first quarter has actually been stable to the fourth quarter.

The reality, though is our first question isn't, hey, how do we do 10 more deals? Our first question is, is the incremental transaction that we're doing and Bryce you and I have talked about this behind closed doors. Is it going to improve the current portfolio? Period.

So, when we think about whether we have to take up leverage, we think about how an uptick in volume impacts the fund, the first question is how many more deals can we do? The first question is, how do we actually create the cleanest, most, non-volatile cash flow streams that we can?

So that - is leverage going to stay down at 1 turn forever? No. We don't mean it to. But in this market, based on our current base returns, we actually have the benefit of being able to do that and same token that I'm sorry for, if this doesn't perfectly get to the question hopefully it's getting around it. Even if deal flow picks up, effectively I'd rather the biggest funnel to be able to choose the best deals.

So I'd rather always see more deals, but just because originations have seen more transactions has picked up, again my product and our team's productivity to you and the Street and this is kind of the strategy we try to execute is how do you create a clean portfolio [ph] that kicks off (00:16:27) the cash flows that you all can predict. Is that helping?

Bryce Rowe

Analyst, B. Riley Securities, Inc.

Yeah, for sure. I appreciate it. Definitely gets to the meat of the question. And maybe a follow-up for Tom, since you talked about it in the prepared remarks, the Dermatology Associates investment crystallized here in February as you noted. Can you talk about what the mechanics of that might look like in the first quarter, given that you were actually carrying it at a fair value mark above cost?

Thomas M. Hennigan

Chief Financial Officer & Chief Risk Officer, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Right. So, the new capital structure, like the similar structure, is going to have to two trance of the data first out and the last out, and then you'll see there'll be a new equity tranche on our SOI.

One important note is in the aggregate, our total fair value will be - our crystal ball guess is roughly unchanged. So total fair value is not going to change very much. It's just it'll be different instruments and there'll be more value moving from what is now our last out on nonaccrual to an equity tranche and then there'll be more debt on accrual status in those new tranches.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

So net-net positive impact on a quarterly, but full quarter basis of about $0.01 per share. No impact on fair value but - and non-accruals going down materially with that transaction in the aggregate being removed from non- accrual status?

Bryce Rowe

Analyst, B. Riley Securities, Inc.

Yeah. Okay. Got it. And then maybe last one for me. You all had swapped out the fixed rate for a floating rate on the baby bonds. Maybe an obvious answer from you all, but if any thought around why do that as opposed as opposed to just keeping keep keeping a fixed rate there.

Thomas M. Hennigan

Chief Financial Officer & Chief Risk Officer, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Bryce with the 8% when we're looking at our maturities at the end of 2024, we wanted to be measured and not put all our eggs in one basket and wait for the market to rebound. So we consider this kind of step one in addressing those upcoming maturities.

8.2% for the market was a good rate, but candidly, not a rate we wanted to stick with for any long-term amount of time. So thought the right thing to do would be to swap that. The floating certainly seeing the likelihood that base rates are going to come down. So over time paying much less than the 8.2%. And that's at least where the rate curves are going to go. That's what we anticipate happening with that instrument.

And in terms of, the next step is we're going to look to do potentially an index eligible deal, whether it be later in 2024, early 2025, increased our overall unsecured debt exposure. That's something that we'll be we're working on and looking we'll say, in the course of the next year.

Bryce Rowe

Analyst, B. Riley Securities, Inc.

Got it. Okay. Thanks for that.

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Bryce, thank you.

Bryce Rowe

Analyst, B. Riley Securities, Inc.

Yup.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Finian O'Shea from Wells Fargo Securities. Your question please.

Finian O'Shea

Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Hey, everyone. Good morning. So, Aren, appreciate the portfolio cover as it relates to the core middle market strategy and opportunistically partaking in the larger market and or ARR deals.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

So in these instances, does that mean the direct lending platform that that serves the BDC under you is opportunistically doing other styles? Or is it that the BDC complex is claiming this deal flow from other Carlyle credit verticals? And then second part there, are you still dedicated to the core middle market or are you drifting upmarket by design? Thanks.

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Yeah. It's the first time the two math guys have been on an earnings call.

Finian O'Shea

Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

So it should be a target school now.

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Yeah. So let me start from the first question, which is a great one. So our knitting is core middle market. So if you think about the - for our entire platforms that's a great question. If you think about the median EBITDA of a company that we lend to, it's about $76 million.

With that said, we have a pretty big and this is all within direct lending and the private credit business, we have a large origination footprint. So for us, when I think and the team thinks about direct lending, my ultimate goal I'm going to go back to the previous question is we're putting together a big portfolio with the average position being less than 1%. So my ultimate product is the cash flow stream that kicks out.

So in the first half of last year when there were a lot fewer transactions to be had, it was the first time in many years where, quite frankly, the terms of the upper part of the market, so, well north of $100 million EBITDA, we were able to get spreads that were on top of the mid-market, so call it [ph] 675, 700 (00:22:00), we're able to get covenants and we're able to get terms that were the same.

So from a from a risk standpoint in the first half of the year, opportunistically, we're able to do direct lending and we had to make a choice for our investors what is the safe - what is safer? If I can get similar terms, similar protections and similar spread to the mid-market and actually have the protection of a much larger business, which historically hasn't had those covenants and hasn't had those protections, we opportunistically went up market.

By the second half of the year, and you and I talked about this behind closed doors as well as the upper part of the market got a little bit more crowded, CLO bid came back significant retail flows went into other direct lending strategies and some of our peers, we skewed back down to the core mid-market and that core mid-market, again, I'd define is somewhere between 25 - in the second half of the year, probably $25 million to $75 million.

The point on ABL strategies, we do have a team focused on asset backed lending and when we think about asset backed lending, it is to core middle market companies. But as opposed to being a structure to cash flow loans, we are literally thinking about our downside protection being true assets, receivables, cash, et cetera, real estate.

And then we have obviously a very big software practice who also reports with up to me and that team opportunistically has done some ARR deals. We are quite frankly, been probably less exposed to ARR than some

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc (0CT3YW-E)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2023 Earnings Call	27-Feb-2024

of our peers. But again, my goal and this doesn't sound - this isn't going to sound sexy, my goal is how do you get overpaid for taking less risk?

So again, we're focused on direct lending once in a while. If I can go up market, if that market's dislocated, we do it and we did it first half of last year. Today, we're probably more focused on the mid-market, though opportunistically we do go upmarket if something is attractive. Hopefully that answers the question.

Finian O'Shea

Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Yes, very much. Thank you. And to get back to Dermatology Associates, sorry, if I missed any of this part of the dialogue. But it sounds like you just took control or received control. But this, of course, had been a long challenged credit where you had restructured the debt somewhat previously.

So can you give some more color on the state of the investment now? Do you plan to put more money into it or maybe immediately bring in a new sponsor partner? And then has the EBITDA trajectory stabilized or is it still in decline? Thanks.

Thomas M. Hennigan

Chief Financial Officer & Chief Risk Officer, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

Let me tackle the last part first, because that's one of my favorite questions or answers. That company has exhibited 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA growth, steady performance, continued upward trend, modest increase every quarter, but 12 quarters in a row coming out of the pandemic of EBITDA increases.

In terms of future, it's stable growth, we're not looking to shoot for the fences and get - and put in material new dollars to grow it. We're going in now as a new equity group, assess the right time to exit the investment.

We're going to invest prudently, don't have any grand slams ` the company's performance is stable and improving, and we'll look at the right time to exit the investment.

Aren LeeKong

Chief Executive Officer & Director, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc

And [ph] Finn (00:25:46), it's a good question I think where we are in the cycle, we here at Carlyle Direct Lending spent a lot of time a year plus ago, I think it was behind the scenes, looking at our processes, figuring out exactly how to be prudent and more careful in terms of, again, being proactive in situations that were teetering.

So I would say that we're kind of - we're not in the first inning of that for our portfolio. We're close to the end of the game and we're - we have full control of it. I think a lot of our peers are just on the front end of that.

So for us part of the boring stuff is you're not going to - Tom's is not going to be in front of the Street like we are today, saying, hey, we've turned the corner without those 12 consecutive quarters of positive numbers.

So for us, the key is to making sure that we have a clean portfolio when we come to you and we're being conservative. So we feel pretty good about where things are.

Finian O'Shea

Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Awesome. Thank you both.

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Company Profile

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company. The Companyâs investment objective is to generate current income and, to a lesser extent, capital appreciation primarily through assembling a portfolio of secured debt investments in United States middle market companies. It seeks to achieve its investment objective primarily through direct origination of secured debt instruments, including first lien senior secured loans, which may include stand-alone first lien loans, first lien/last out loans and unitranche loans, and second lien senior secured loans (collectively, Middle Market Senior Loans), with a minority of its assets invested in higher yielding investments, which may include unsecured debt, subordinated debt and investments in equities. The Company is managed by its investment adviser, Carlyle Global Credit Investment Management L.L.C.

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Corporate Financial Services

Calendar

2024-05-06 - Q1 2024 Earnings Release

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OUTPERFORM

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17.09 USD

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16.1 USD

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-5.79%

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REINET INVESTMENTS S.C.A.	-6.25%	4.08B

Other Corporate Financial Services

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

Equities

CGBD

US8722801029

Corporate Financial Services

Carlyle Secured Lending : Q4 2023 Earnings Transcript

EPS Revisions