CLASQUIN : 2023_07_28 Kepler

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-07-28 09:38:13

#TPchange

		Release date: 28 July 2023
Clasquin Hold		[phone]
		Baptiste de Leudeville
		Equity Research Analyst
France | Support services	Beta Profile:	MCap: EUR179.5m

Target Price:	EUR84.00 (76.00)	Change in TP:	10.5%
Current Price:	EUR78.60	Change in Sales:	6.2%	23E/8.6% 24E
Up/downside:	6.9%	Change in Adj EBIT:	9.0%	23E/12.7% 24E
Market data:	27 July 2023	Change in Adj. EPS:	11.3% 23E/16.2% 24E

More resilient volumes than expected in Q2

Why this report?

The volumes in Q2 were significantly stronger than expected, especially in air freight. In a challenging freight market (decreasing volume), Clasquin stands out for its capacity to add new clients and grow organically. We are factoring in a softer landing in the normalisation of volumes (and yields in Air freight) with a positive impact on our GP estimates in 2023 and 2024. TP raised to EUR84.

Key findings

• Clasquin continues to outperform large peers (K+N, DSV).
• Clasquin is excelling at gaining new clients and growing organically. 8% of the gross profit in H1 2023 came from new clients.
• Timar's contribution in Q2 was in line with expectations.
• We cut our GP estimates by 6% in 2023 and 9% in 2024 with respective positive impacts on EBIT of 9% and 13% respectively.
• This has a EUR8 impact on our DCF-derived valuation.
  Deconstructing the forecasts
• We are looking at a 2% decrease in GP in 2023 as business conditions normalise (- 8% previously).

Bloomberg: ALCLA FP		Reuters: ALCLA.PA
Free float			45.0%
Avg. daily volume (EURm)		0.1
YTD abs performance			31.9%
52-week high/low (EUR)		82.20/45.60
FY to 31/12 (EUR)	12/23E	12/24E	12/25E
Sales (m)	856.5	866.6	898.5
EBITDA adj (m)	29.3	29.0	29.4
EBIT adj (m)	21.6	21.3	21.7
Net profit adj (m)	12.8	12.6	12.8
Net financial debt (m)	11.1	6.1	-7.0
FCF (m)	-9.1	10.9	18.9
EPS adj. and ful. dil.	5.54	5.44	5.57
Consensus EPS	5.42	5.97	6.36
Net dividend	2.24	2.20	2.25
FY to 31/12	12/23E	12/24E	12/25E
P/E adj and ful. dil.	14.2	14.5	14.1
EV/EBITDA	7.7	7.6	7.1
EV/EBIT	10.5	10.4	9.6
FCF yield	-5.1%	6.1%	10.5%
Dividend yield	2.9%	2.8%	2.9%
ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA	1.1	0.9	0.4
Gearing	18.6%	8.8%	-8.9%
ROIC	19.8%	15.3%	15.5%
EV/IC	2.3	2.1	2.1

Investment case

• Clasquin is a top-quality company that primarily bases its success on differentiated and highly attractive positioning in the freight forwarding industry. Clasquin has been implementing a well-functioning growth model with success, as evidenced by a robust 14% gross profit CAGR since 2015.
• Successful strategy execution: 1) well-led international expansion, 2) development of niche expertise and verticals (wine & spirits, art shipping, etc.) 3) smart M&A, 4) addition of value-added services for customers.
• In 2021-22, Clasquin took advantage of the powerful recovery in global demand and the massive disruption of supply chains. We expect some normalisation in 2023-24.
  Catalysts
• Surge in freight rates due to high demand and tight supply chain conditions.
• Broadening of offering (logistics, supply chain, digital offer).
• Business ramp-up in fast-growing regions for trade.

Valuation methodology

• DCF (9.0% WACC, 3% terminal growth, 16% LT EBIT/GP).
• Peers (applying structural discount to account for smaller size and lower liquidity).
  Risks to our rating
• Improving supply chain conditions create less favourable pricing environment.
• Freight capacity exceeding demand.
• Decreasing consumption and world trade.

Clasquin

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-07-28 09:38:13

Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR84.00

Q2 beat

Air freight: strong volume driven by new clients

Volumes came up 15.3% in Q2, and were much stronger than expected (KECH: -7%). The new client wins primarily explain that beat. Clasquin strongly outperformed the air freight market. For instance, DSV released a YOY decline of -21% and K+N published a YOY decrease of -11% YOY. The yield also surprised us positively by remaining stable with the first quarter. based on the above, Q2 gross profit in Air freight amounted EUR9.6m, significantly above forecasts (KECH: EUR7.6m).

Sea freight: resilient volumes, drop in yields

Volumes were also more resilient than expected (-1% YOY reported compared to -4% expected). Clasquin is in line with K+N (also -1%) and did better than DSV (-7%). The yields also surprised us positively by remaining stable compared to the first quarter. Based on the above, Q2 gross profit in Air freight amounted EUR9.6m, significantly above forecasts (KECH: EUR7.6m).

Chart 1: Volume air freight (TEUs ,000)		Chart 2: Volume sea freight (tons)
TEUs (,000)		Tons

80			62				64	66		72	69	71	63	71	66	63		70	25												22
70						60					59															18			18		18
	52	56		55									20			17	17				17	17		18			17	16
60			49														16			15				15
48															14	13		15
50																			15				12
40
30																			10
20																			5
10
0	Q1-19	Q2-19	Q3-19	Q4-19	Q1-20	Q2-20	Q3-20	Q4-20	Q1-21	Q2-21	Q3-21	Q4-21	Q1-22	Q2-22	Q3-22	Q4-22	Q1-23	Q2-23	0	Q1-19	Q2-19	Q3-19	Q4-19	Q1-20	Q2-20	Q3-20	Q4-20	Q1-21	Q2-21	Q3-21	Q4-21	Q1-22	Q2-22	Q3-22	Q4-22	Q1-23	Q2-23
														Source: Kepler Cheuvreux															Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

Chart 3: GP/TEU (sea freight)Chart 4: GP/t (Air freight

350															299	294	319										GP/t (Air freight)
300					272	288									291282
																			237	800														673
250					205205																			601							581
164		163																						600		559	538			573			538541
200 155	141158	150149136																										398395396425410			427443441			456								472

150	400

100							200
50
0							0
Q1-19Q2-19Q3-19Q4-19Q1-20Q2-20Q3-20Q4-20Q1-21Q2-21Q3-21Q4-21Q1-22Q2-22Q3-22Q4-22Q1-23Q2-23		Q1-19Q2-19Q3-19Q4-19Q1-20Q2-20Q3-20Q4-20Q1-21Q2-21Q3-21Q4-21Q1-22Q2-22Q3-22Q4-22Q1-23Q2-23
					GP/TEU (Sea freight)							GP/t (Air freight)
					Source: Kepler Cheuvreux						Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

We raise our estimates and TP (EUR84 vs. EUR76 previously)

We raise our GP estimates by 6% in 2023 and 9% in 2024 with a positive impact on EBIT of 9% and 13% respectively. In the long term, we have a central scenario, based on 3% long-term annual growth, a 16% EBIT margin in cruising speed, and normative FCF of EUR15-20m. We factor these assumptions into our DCF (9% WACC). The method yields an equity value of EUR84 (sensitivity analysis gives a value range of EUR76-92 based on varying assumptions for terminal growth and normalised profitability).

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-07-28 09:38:13

Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR84.00

Company description

Clasquin is an air and sea freight forwarder with a focus on Asia/Europe flows.

Management

Hugues Morin, CEO

Philippe Lons, CFO

Laurence Ilhe, General Secretary

Key shareholders

Free float	45.00%
Yves Revol	41.90%
Employees	12.60%
Others	0.50%

Key data charts

Price performance		Sales split by region		Sales split by division

FCF		Sales and EBITDA margin		FCF and Capex to sales

SWOT analysis

Strengths

• International integrated network (US, Europe, Asia).
• Differentiated profile (family-owned business, medium-sizecompany).
• Diversified and balanced customer base (first customer <3%of GP).
• Strong presence in China.

Weaknesses

• Limited presence in the US.
• Lower volume shipped, GP/volume, and conversion rate than competitors.

Opportunities

• Disruption of global supply chain.
• Development of niche expertise /verticals (e.g. wine, fine arts).
• Broadening of offering (overseas logistics, consulting, etc.).

Threats

• Slowdown in global consumption and world trade.
• Collapse in freight rates.
• Relocation of production in Europe.

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-07-28 09:38:13

Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR84.00

Valuation table								Market data as of: 27 July 2023
FY to 31/12 (EUR)	12/16	12/17	12/18	12/19	12/20	12/21	12/22	12/23E	12/24E	12/25E
Per share data (EUR)
EPS adjusted	0.69	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.22	7.60	9.55	5.60	5.50	5.63
% Change	-52.4%	56.5%	12.3%	38.5%	32.2%	241.9%	25.7%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
EPS adjusted and fully diluted	0.69	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.21	7.53	9.45	5.54	5.44	5.57
% Change	-52.4%	56.5%	12.3%	38.1%	31.8%	240.8%	25.5%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
EPS reported	0.69	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.22	7.60	9.55	5.60	5.50	5.63
% Change	-52.4%	56.5%	12.3%	38.5%	32.2%	241.9%	25.7%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
EPS Consensus								5.42	5.97	6.36
Cash flow per share	0.58	1.04	1.92	7.01	0.91	6.79	29.29	-2.69	6.07	9.57
Book value per share	8.78	8.57	9.31	9.53	11.68	17.07	22.97	22.79	26.85	31.08
DPS	0.80	0.80	0.65	0.00	1.30	3.40	6.50	2.24	2.20	2.25
Number of shares, YE (m)	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
Nbr of shares, fully diluted, YE (m)	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
Share price
Latest price / year end	28.4	36.0	30.0	35.0	36.7	76.0	59.6	78.6	78.6	78.6
52 week high	35.0	38.2	42.5	38.4	41.2	76.0	75.8	82.2
52 week low	23.5	27.3	30.0	29.7	18.5	36.5	45.6	56.0
Average price (Year)	29.6	33.2	36.5	34.6	30.7	53.0	60.9	78.6	78.6	78.6
Enterprise value (EURm)
Market capitalisation	68.2	76.4	84.1	79.7	70.7	121.2	139.2	179.5	179.5	179.5
Net financial debt	11.6	12.7	16.0	29.3	19.8	15.5	-28.9	11.1	6.1	-7.0
Pension provisions	0.0	0.9	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1
IFRS 16 debt	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.7	9.0	11.1	20.1	20.1	20.1	20.1
Market value of minorities	3.0	3.2	3.0	4.9	4.0	6.3	7.4	7.4	7.4	7.4
MV of equity affiliates (net of tax)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Others	-1.4	1.0	0.9	3.0	1.2	7.5	7.6	7.6	7.6	7.6
Enterprise value	81.4	94.1	104.8	127.5	106.0	162.9	146.6	226.9	221.9	208.8
Valuation
P/E adjusted	42.9	30.7	30.1	20.6	13.8	7.0	6.4	14.0	14.3	14.0
P/E adjusted and fully diluted	42.9	30.7	30.1	20.6	13.9	7.0	6.5	14.2	14.5	14.1
P/E consensus								14.5	13.2	12.4
P/BV	3.4	3.9	3.9	3.6	2.6	3.1	2.7	3.4	2.9	2.5
P/CF	50.8	31.9	19.0	4.9	33.6	7.8	2.1	na	12.9	8.2
Dividend yield (%)	2.7%	2.4%	1.8%	0.0%	4.2%	6.4%	10.7%	2.9%	2.8%	2.9%
FCF yield (%)	-3.2%	-1.6%	1.0%	17.1%	0.8%	11.2%	44.0%	-5.1%	6.1%	10.5%
ROE (%)	7.6%	12.5%	13.6%	17.9%	21.0%	52.7%	47.6%	24.5%	22.1%	19.4%
ROIC (%)	9.3%	10.6%	9.8%	9.1%	10.1%	29.0%	35.2%	19.8%	15.3%	15.5%
EV/Sales	0.35	0.32	0.34	0.38	0.27	0.22	0.17	0.26	0.26	0.23
EV/EBITDA adj.	11.5	12.8	11.3	9.2	6.4	4.3	3.6	7.7	7.6	7.1
EV/EBIT adj.	20.3	17.3	18.1	15.4	11.0	6.0	4.3	10.5	10.4	9.6
EV/NOPAT	35.2	28.8	29.4	26.4	16.3	7.9	5.9	14.4	14.3	13.2
EV/IC	2.9	2.8	2.7	1.9	1.7	2.0	2.4	2.3	2.1	2.1
ROIC/WACC	1.0	1.2	1.1	1.0	1.1	3.2	3.9	2.2	1.7	1.7
EV/IC over ROIC/WACC	2.8	2.4	2.5	1.9	1.6	0.6	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.2

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-07-28 09:38:13

Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR84.00

Income statement

FY to 31/12 (EUR)	12/16	12/17	12/18	12/19	12/20	12/21	12/22	12/23E	12/24E	12/25E
Sales	235.0	290.6	308.3	331.3	392.0	752.2	877.1	856.5	866.6	898.5
Gross profit	57.5	62.9	68.9	76.7	76.2	121.9	140.0	136.7	138.3	143.4
EBITDA reported	7.1	7.4	9.3	13.9	16.7	38.2	40.3	29.3	29.0	29.4
EBITDA adjusted	7.1	7.4	9.3	13.9	16.7	38.2	40.3	29.3	29.0	29.4
Depreciation and amortisation	-2.0	-1.9	-2.8	-5.6	-7.0	-10.8	-7.7	-7.7	-7.7	-7.7
Goodwill impairment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other financial result and associates	-1.1	0.0	-0.6	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0
EBIT reported	4.0	5.4	5.8	8.3	9.6	27.3	34.0	21.6	21.3	21.7
EBIT adjusted	4.0	5.4	5.8	8.3	9.6	27.3	34.0	21.6	21.3	21.7
Net financial items	0.6	0.7	0.7	1.0	-0.4	-0.1	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6
Associates	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Others	-1.1	-1.4	-1.1	-1.7	-1.2	-1.9	-3.0	-3.0	-3.0	-3.0
Earnings before tax	3.6	4.8	5.5	7.6	8.1	25.1	32.6	20.2	19.9	20.3
Tax	-1.5	-1.9	-2.1	-3.2	-2.6	-6.1	-8.9	-5.5	-5.4	-5.5
Net profit from continuing op.	2.0	2.9	3.4	4.5	5.4	18.9	23.7	14.7	14.5	14.8
Net profit from disc. activities	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net profit before minorities	2.0	2.9	3.4	4.5	5.4	18.9	23.7	14.7	14.5	14.8
Minorities	-0.5	-0.4	-0.6	-0.6	-0.3	-1.5	-1.9	-1.9	-1.9	-1.9
Net profit reported	1.6	2.5	2.8	3.9	5.1	17.4	21.8	12.8	12.6	12.8
Adjustments	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net profit adjusted	1.6	2.5	2.8	3.9	5.1	17.4	21.8	12.8	12.6	12.8
Sales % Change	0.3%	23.6%	6.1%	7.4%	18.3%	91.9%	16.6%	-2.4%	1.2%	3.7%
EBITDA reported % Change	-13.8%	3.7%	25.7%	49.7%	20.3%	129.0%	5.5%	-27.1%	-1.1%	1.4%
EBITDA adjusted % Change	-13.8%	3.7%	25.7%	49.7%	20.3%	129.0%	5.5%	-27.1%	-1.1%	1.4%
EBIT reported % Change	-36.2%	35.5%	6.3%	42.9%	16.7%	182.9%	24.9%	-36.4%	-1.5%	1.9%
EBIT adjusted % Change	-36.2%	35.5%	6.3%	42.9%	16.7%	182.9%	24.9%	-36.4%	-1.5%	1.9%
Earnings before tax % Change	-42.4%	35.7%	14.2%	38.4%	5.9%	210.3%	30.2%	-38.0%	-1.6%	2.0%
Net profit from cont. op. % Change	-51.6%	41.4%	17.1%	31.6%	21.7%	248.4%	25.4%	-38.0%	-1.6%	2.0%
Net profit reported % Change	-52.5%	56.5%	12.2%	38.6%	32.2%	239.7%	25.4%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
Net profit adjusted % Change	-52.5%	56.5%	12.2%	38.6%	32.2%	239.7%	25.4%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
Gross profit margin (%)	24.5%	21.6%	22.3%	23.2%	19.4%	16.2%	16.0%	16.0%	16.0%	16.0%
EBITDA margin (%)	3.0%	2.5%	3.0%	4.2%	4.3%	5.1%	4.6%	3.4%	3.3%	3.3%
EBIT margin (%)	1.7%	1.9%	1.9%	2.5%	2.5%	3.6%	3.9%	2.5%	2.5%	2.4%
Net profit margin (%)	0.7%	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%	1.3%	2.3%	2.5%	1.5%	1.4%	1.4%
Tax rate (%)	42.4%	39.9%	38.4%	41.5%	32.8%	24.5%	27.3%	27.3%	27.3%	27.3%
Payout ratio (%)	115.8%	74.0%	53.6%	0.0%	58.9%	45.2%	68.8%	40.4%	40.4%	40.4%
EPS reported (EUR)	0.69	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.22	7.60	9.55	5.60	5.50	5.63
EPS adjusted (EUR)	0.69	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.22	7.60	9.55	5.60	5.50	5.63
EPS adj and fully diluted (EUR)	0.69	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.21	7.53	9.45	5.54	5.44	5.57
DPS (EUR)	0.80	0.80	0.65	0.00	1.30	3.40	6.50	2.24	2.20	2.25
EPS reported % Change	-52.4%	56.5%	12.3%	38.5%	32.2%	241.9%	25.7%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
EPS adjusted % Change	-52.4%	56.5%	12.3%	38.5%	32.2%	241.9%	25.7%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
EPS adj and fully diluted % Change	-52.4%	56.5%	12.3%	38.1%	31.8%	240.8%	25.5%	-41.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
DPS % Change	-36.0%	0.0%	-18.8%	-chg	+chg	161.5%	91.2%	-65.5%	-1.9%	2.3%
Consensus Sales (EURm)								824.9	873.6	909.8
Consensus EBITDA (EURm)								27.8	30.9	33.4
Consensus EBIT (EURm)								19.8	21.2	20.7
Consensus EPS (EUR)								5.42	5.97	6.36

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