EDP Renováveis S A : EDPR Transcript FY23 Presentation

Transcript - FY23 Results Conference Call

EDPR

Tuesday, 28th February 2024 14:00 Hours UK time

Chaired by Miguel Stilwell d' Andrade

Company Participants

• Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, Chief Executive Officer
• Rui Teixeira, Chief Financial Officer
• Miguel Viana, Head of Investor Relations & ESG

Other Participants

• Alberto Gandolfi, Analyst
• Arthur Sitbon, Analyst
• Fernando Garcia, Analyst
• Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona,Analyst
• Javier Garrido, Analyst
• Jorge Guimaraes, Analyst
• Manuel Palomo, Analyst

Miguel Viana: Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for attending EDPR 2023 results conference call. We have here with us our CEO, Miguel Stilwell de Andrade; and our CFO, Rui Teixeira, will run you through the key highlights on the update of -- on the execution of our strategic plan and the financial performance of the year. We'll then move to Q&A in which we'll be taking your questions, both by phone and the written questions that you can insert from now onwards in your conference webpage. This call is expected to last close to 60 minutes.

I'll give now the floor to our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade: Thank you, Miguel. Good afternoon to everyone. And I think it's good that we can talk and update you on what's been happening in 2023 and the company's update and outlook for the year.

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And I start off by saying that 2023 was a challenging year for the renewable sector in general, but also EDPR in particular. And I don't think there's any sugarcoating it and I won't try to, I'll give you a balanced and realistic view of where I think the sector is and then where EDPR is.

As you know, we've been regularly briefing you on the year and the fourth quarter didn't go particularly well either. There were several issues that negatively impacted us and that we've been working through and are continuing to work through. And I'll go through that in detail in the presentation.

There are also some positives that I will highlight. So I would start off just by going -- just before going to the sort of to the bulk of the presentation to Slide 4, just saying 2023, as I said, definitely challenging. Overall, for '24, we do expect underlying business to grow in 2024 as much as above 20%, but assuming the capital gains in line with the business plan that there would be a moderate growth in EBITDA overall.

So moving forward to Slide 4. First, I think, if you look at the capacity additions, we had a strong fourth quarter in 2023. We added 1.7 GWs of renewables, which is quite an impressive volume for a single quarter. And so, we ended up the year with a total of 2.5 GWs of annual capacity addition. So, this is what we'd previously anticipated at the nine months results release.

Going forward for '24, we have very good visibility on the execution of our 4- GW target. We already have 85% of this capacity currently under construction. And the last couple of months, we've seen also the normalization of the solar panel supply chain in the U.S. So we had a pretty adverse environment over most of 2023 and it seems to have normalized now.

Regarding balance sheets. In 2023, we reinforced our capital structure with the EUR1 billion equity raise, and we've also successfully implemented a new scrip dividend policy, which we -- would be the second year. We just came out with the news release for that this week.

On asset rotation, I think, it was a particularly strong year, great execution by the teams and reflecting, I think, the value of the assets. And I remember this time last year when we were getting a lot of questions on the demand for asset rotation, if you could still keep it up? And yes, I mean, the answer was, clearly, in 2023, we had three great transactions contributing to the total of EUR1.7 billion of proceeds, EUR460 million of gains, and an average gain of 60% on invested capital.

So again, a year on -- I think we can look back and say it was a great year for asset rotation. And it's clearly above the 20% to 25% target return for asset rotations that we'd assumed in the strategic plan. We continue to see strong interest from investors. And in the beginning of 2024, we've already announced the closing of one transaction. We've signed another one. We expect them to close in first quarter of '24, totaling a total of around EUR1.1 billion in terms of enterprise value.

The '23 was also marked by quite a few material headwinds. And we've shared them over the last couple of quarters, and now we're actually seeing the numbers impact. We had a

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well below average wind resource with a negative impact of around EUR200 million in the 2023 EBITDA, mostly penalized by the El Nino effect on the U.S. wind resource. I think we flagged that already, I think, on the first quarter numbers of last year that, that was beginning to happen.

We had a cost associated with the delay on the transmission line permitting in the wind project in Colombia. We had the bottlenecks on the solar panel supply chain in the U.S. and we had the countercyclical callback taxes in Europe. So all together, these headwinds represent about a EUR400 million negative impact on our 2023 EBITDA and they seriously distort our underlying P&L.

Finally, in late December, we announced an agreement for a transaction that comes, I think it will allow us to simplify the corporate structure. It's definitely earnings accretive from day

1. So, we bought back 49% of a 1-GW portfolio of wind farms that we operate in Europe for around EUR570 million. The implicit enterprise value per MW multiple was around 1.2x and we expect the transaction to be closed in the second quarter of this year.

So now, I'll go deeper into these topics, and I'd start off just by taking a step back and looking at the big picture. First, we had some positive news coming out of the COP in December, essentially talking about tripling the renewables capacity between 2022 and 2030 to reach the 1.5 degree target. And so that commitment was, let's say, signed by more than 130 national governments. We have the European Union coming together and also agreeing to triple that. So I think that broad tailwind continues to be there and we continue to see it pushing the sector forward.

Solar PV and wind is expected to account for 95% of global renewable expansion, and that's where we are placed. So we're well-placed to take advantage of that. In general -- the generation costs continue to be below both fossil and non-fossil fuel alternatives.

There's also been upward revisions of the '23 to '27 targets for renewables in countries like Brazil, Germany and U.S. for large economies where we're present. In the offshore, we also expect the upward price revision auction coming up in round six. The price cap increased by 66%. And in the U.S., we're also seeing a significant increase in the pricing, including inflation updates over the construction stage. So we are seeing conditions improve materially for auctions, both onshore and offshore.

We saw in 2023 also the approval by the FERC, so the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, for a rule to speed up the interconnection processes. As you know, that's one of the issues which is holding up a lot of projects for the sector. And that'sthe first major change to interconnection requirements in two decades. So work is being done by the different regulators to try and get streamlined the permitting and the licensing issues.

And in Europe, I think, the European Commission has also come out with a goal recommending a 90% greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 of around 90% - so 90% reduction for 2040 compared to 1990. So things seem to be going in the right direction. The broad macro wins are there. Now, it's really about execution.

And so, if we go on to the next slide. I think if we look back, we are continuing to scale up significantly versus what our growth rate was in the past. As I say, over the decade, 2010 to 2020, we were growing around 700 MWs a year. We're now -- we just did 2.5 GWs. That's

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still a significant increase versus what our historical growth is. And as I said, we are very confident on the 4 GWs for 2024.

I mentioned to you, 85% is on the construction, 15% is expected to start over the next few months. It's got a big weight of Solar DG projects that normally have an average construction time of around six months. I think it's important to say also that most of the solar panels have already been delivered to the projects in the U.S., and so that gives us quite a high degree of confidence there.

Now move forward to the next slides on asset rotation. So here, as I mentioned, very strong gains, around 60% gains on invested capital. Three transactions, Spain, Poland, Brazil. I won't go through in a lot of detail, because I think we've already given information over the course of last year, so this is not news for most of you.

And I would just highlight that in the beginning of '24, we've already closed those two additional transactions, so around 500 MWs, EUR1.1 billion enterprise value. As I say, the other transactions for 2024 have already been launched, and we expect to get the gains and the proceeds to be at least in line with the strategic planned target.

If we move over to Slide 8. Just give you a highlight on the buyback of the 49%. I think it was a good opportunity that we had to take back 100% control, gives us quite a bit of additional flexibility, simplifies the ownership structure. It's cash flow and earnings accretive day 1, and it gives us more flexibility for hybridization, repowering, and even on the energy management side. So we're expecting this for the second quarter, but as you can see, pretty healthy numbers, double-digit cash yields and around EUR40 million expected contribution to net income.

If we move to supply chain. So supply chain, definitely much stronger position, I think, than we were maybe nine months ago. We had to reconfigure the supply chain in the U.S. As you know, we had a large dependency on launching panels as a result of significant delays in the import of those panels. We went back and we reconfigured it to -- so now we have nine different suppliers for the 2024 deliveries between the U.S. and Europe. They're all aligned with ESG audit requirements and traceability on the manufacturing origin.

So I think that's really something that's important is to make sure that we don't get caught up in any issues around UFLPA, so the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, or tariffs in the U.S., so some of these modules are already produced in the U.S. We've diversified the polysilicon, including origins from the U.S., Germany, and Malaysia. So I think overall, we're in a better place or a more resilient place now in relation to the supply chain. And as I say, if you see here on Slide 9 at the bottom, we've got the 70% of the solar panels already delivered, which is what I mentioned in relation to the previous slide.

So that, I think, positions us well. I think if you look at costs on the right-hand side, it's also important to see that the costs have been coming down for solar panel prices significantly. We've recently closed framework agreements on about 1-GW of solar panel volumes for late '24, early '25 deliveries mostly in Europe. I think it's record low prices, so I think that also places us well for the growth there.

If we move to Slide 10, talking about risk and hedging and long-term contracted. So, as you know, we normally have a policy of being quite contracted and hedged going forward. That

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sometimes has a downside if prices spike and we don't capture all that upside, but it also has an advantage, which is when prices fall, we also don't get as much impacted.

So, we've kept a high weight of long-term contracted and hedged electricity sales. Normally, we target long-term contracts of at least 15 years maturity, and we try to lock in at least 60% of the cash flows for the investment, let's say, the NPV with this contracted profile. Specifically, in relation to '24, so 90% of the expected generation is already contracted or hedged, and in '25, 85%. Only 50% is related to European electricity markets, which is mainly Spain. The rest of the merchant exposure is mostly U.S. and Brazil, where electricity prices have -- the volatility has been less significant.

And I think it's also important to note that this residual exposure to spot electricity prices is associated with the low-risk volume management of renewables generation intermittency, so that -- obviously, there can be -- can blow more or less, but in the case, it blows less, you want to make sure you're not over-hedged. And so that is typically where we want to be.

Regarding prices, they were above EUR80 per MW hour for 2024, above EUR70 per MW hour in 2025, so significantly above the current forward prices. So that is part of the downside, but it's part of, let's say, in relation to a smaller volume. The average maturity portfolio of the long-term contracts is around 13 years, so I think that provides quite a lot of stability to the revenues.

We move forward to Slide 11. So this is an important point that I think we've raised in a couple of calls and sort of conferences, which is -- I mean, we are investing over the economic cycles, and in particular when we look at the revenues that we are securing since 2022 for renewable projects to be delivered going forward for '24, '25, and beyond, we are investing in what we think are better conditions. Higher PPA prices, assuming already a higher cost of capital. And so, obviously, having also higher absolute returns. So, I think this will end up being a pretty good project.

So, 61% of the projects, let's say, of the secured capacity decisions were taken since 2022. So, as I say, taking advantage of these assumptions. These projects were approved at an average of over 1.4x WACC. They will be entering operations from late '24 onwards. And so, I think we might benefit from a slight improvement of market conditions if there's an easing of supply chain pressure or lower interest rates versus the 2023 peak levels.

Overall, we continue to see attractive returns based on our investment criteria, not just within the portfolio of secured projects, but also projects under development that we haven't yet secured for commissioning in '25 and beyond.

If we go to Slide 12. This is a point which I think is important, obviously, in a market where energy prices are reducing, at least on the merchant side, and where there have been delays, it's really important to be focused on efficiency and making sure that we are mitigating the impacts of the delays in the project. So on one hand, we've been making sure that we are focusing the growth. So around more than 90% of secured capacity for '24 to '26, we're expecting to come from 10 core markets, and just -- and 60% from three core markets, which is basically the U.S., Spain and Brazil. So leveraging there on the critical mass that we have in those markets.

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In terms of organization, we are leveraging on the EDP, EDPR synergy. So particularly in terms of back office and some global functions to make sure that we're not duplicating teams or not duplicating functions, so I think that's allowing us to streamline, let's say, the operations and the overheads and really make sure we are the leanest, most efficient company possible.

In terms of cost efficiency, we are implementing a series of cost efficiency savings, including delaying of headcounts that -- given a slower growth. And so, we are estimating savings of more than EUR30 million already in 2024 and growing. And on O&M, we're also seeing increased availability and also a leaner cost structure there. That's more on the efficiency and on the organizational front.

On the technologies, hybrids. We continue to see quite a lot of potential for hybrids. So we've now reached 107 MWs of operational wind and solar hybrid projects in Poland, Portugal, and Spain. We're the first ones to actually have hybrid projects in Portugal and in Spain. And we continue to work to materialize our 1-GW of hybridization pipelines. So those are, let's say, quick wins that will have quite a lot of value, just because of the sharing of the infrastructure in terms of the interconnections and access roads and so forth.

In terms of storage, we've already installed 60 MWs in the U.S., we have around 200 MWs under construction also in the U.S., and we're working also on the pipeline in the U.K. And then, in terms of Solar DG, the generation installed capacity, both in APAC and in the U.S., has increased over 50% year-on-year. So, we do have leverages, or we do have synergies in this business line together with EDP to establish a global platform.

And in terms of contracts, I mean, these -- in many cases, these are relatively large contracts. So, in '23, we closed the largest U.S. corporate sponsorship of a distributed PV with Google. I think that was quite a highly publicized contract of around 500 MWs, and that's something that we're working on to make real over the next couple of years.

Finally, in this section, just another word on OW. So we currently have 2 GWs of wind offshore projects under construction in Europe and around 1.7 GWs of projects in advanced development stage in both Poland and in the U.S.

Under starting the under construction, we have a few projects in France, I mean, they're progressing as planned. CODs are expected in 2025, '26. More Vesta project in the UK has the foundation installation already underway. I mean there's some amazing photographs online if you want to see them. The offshore substation platform is being installed. Regarding Poland and then B&C Wind, it's been approved, so we have the interconnection capacity increase of around 100 MWs, which means that we have a project which could reach almost 500 MWs in total.

And finally, on South Coast Wind, used to be called Mayflower Project. That's the project in the U.S. of Massachusetts. It's an advanced stage of permitting and interconnection. The revenue is not secured. As you know, we canceled the PPA last year, and that's part of the numbers last year. And we are analyzing the potential bid into the first multi-state PPA auction in the U.S., so it's Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. That bid is expected, or let's say, that PPA auction is expected around the end of March.

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So like both onshore but also for offshore, we do follow the strict investment criteria, namely in terms of target risks and returns. And we're also obviously aimed to minimize the timing between PPA contracting and FID. So it's obviously very important. I think we've seen that very clearly in the sector over the last year, the importance of trying to line up both revenues and costs to mitigate that potential disconnect in case there's a market disruption.

So I'll stop there for now. I'll pass it over to Rui to go through the 2023 numbers, and then I'll come back for closing remarks. Thank you.

Rui Teixeira: Thank you, Miguel, and good afternoon to you all. I would like to take you through the 2023 results now.

And maybe if we move just to Slide 15, as we already anticipated in the previous presentations, 2023 operational performance has been heavily impacted by the El Nino weather event in North America. It impacted the region this year since April, more or less, leading to an annual renewable index deviation of minus 7% in the region. And this compares to a plus 4% in 2022, so a big drop year-on-year.

Obviously, these low wind volumes have a negative impact, a substantial one, close to EUR0.2 billion off the EBITDA.

But there are two important messages I would like to convey with the chart on the right-hand side of the slide. The first one is that El Nino is cyclical. It's a cyclical phenomenon. We are aware of it, and we already incorporate these sorts of events in our long-term forecasts in -

• of our net operating hours. So, it is captured in our P50 NPV estimations when we go for a
  financial investment decision for our project.

The second one is that our historical data shows that the slope of renewable resource deviation is zero. So, there's no evidence that our portfolio is exposed to a declining wind speed, and that obviously we do have the short-term financial impact by the volatility -- the normal volatility of wind, and particularly impacted by this type of phenomenon, weather phenomenon as the El Nino, but it doesn't mean that we have a downward trend of portfolio profitability. For 2024, we do expect a gradual recovery towards more normalized levels of wind resource.

If we now move to Slide 16, along with other -- with lower wind resources, EDPR performance in 2023 was also impacted by other headwinds that we have talked about several times, and those are mainly related with the delays of capacity in the U.S. and the Colombia, and some windfall taxes, energy taxes in Europe. So, regarding the first one, U.S. solar project delays caused by the supply chain issues that Miguel already discussed, impacted our EBITDA by about EUR50 million -- EUR51 million this year. For 2024, we do not expect additional costs from COD delays, as around 70% of the equipment has already been delivered for the year's installations, and the construction schedule foresees a gradual ramp-up of the U.S. solar capacity and generation volumes over 2024.

Clawbacks in Europe have had an impact of EUR106 million at typical level in 2023, effectively lower than what we initially expected in the beginning of the year. You may recall that we were estimating a potential EUR300 million of impact and this was on the back of lower prices throughout 2023.

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For 2024, Polish clawback has ended, so it will not be active in 2024. Romania will continue to have an impact. It's a non-cash impact as we -- after we unwind the hedges. So, there will be an impact, but again, it will not be a cash one. The clawback, pure impact, what we call the effective application of a clawback will not be material at all given where we are in terms of price conditions for 2024, or price forward curves reported in 2024.

Spain, as you know, reintroduced the 7% tax on generation revenues, and this will imply around EUR15 million impact in 2024. But all in all, the big number, the EUR106 million that we have at EBITDA level is going to reduce materially as we move into 2024.

Lastly, we have incurred costs with delays in Colombia. This amounts to about EUR53 million in 2023 P&L. This is relative to the short position that we have, given that we have the delivery commitment -- the energy delivery commitment, but we don't have the operating reform. We are in advanced stage of negotiation with the majority of the uptakers, aiming to reduce that short position. In parallel, we have been hedging an important portion of the generation that you are bound to deliver in 2024, and this would reduce the potential impact in 2024.

As you've seen in our numbers, we've decided to book a non-cash impairment of EUR179 million, driven by the project delays that -- and I mean of course, we consider this as a non- recurring impact and I'm sure we can provide you some more details if you ask so. Also, as Miguel already said, we expect to get transmission line environmental permit in the second half of 2024 and continue with construction to have these projects fully operational, I would say, by late 2025.

On Slide 17, recurring EBITDA was about EUR1.8 billion. That's a 14% drop year-on- year. This has a positive impact from the asset rotation gains, EUR460 million, which are very much above the target that we set for our business plan, and also the EBITDA growth or the EBITDA -- sorry, evolution was driven by an increase in terms of the 12% year-on-year installed capacity. But, of course, we have that negative impact from lower renewable resources, also lower average selling price, about minus 6% year-on-year, with Europe coming down from the abnormal peak prices in 2022. And this was partly compensated by the 8% increase in realized prices in the U.S., mainly coming from the new additions at higher prices. Also, some temporary headwinds in Europe and the Americas that we already -- that I already explained.

Also, to highlight the reduction of share profits from associates, this is driven by the reduction of the wholesale electricity prices in the UK, versus, again, a very extraordinary level in 2022, and the PPA cancellation penalty that we booked back in Q2. So all in all, the

• this justifies the drop in EBITDA to EUR1.8 billion.

On Slide 18, the net expansion investments of EUR2.9 billion. I think it's an important number to have. It shows really that we carry on with the growth, even though we have these headwinds. By the end of the year, net debt was at EUR5.8 billion. That's an increase of around EUR0.9 billion versus December 2022, mainly driven by the growth effort with this overall EUR4.2 billion of expansion CapEx on a gross basis, partially offset by the asset rotation and also the tax equity proceeds.

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Maybe here, I think, it's important to highlight that 2024 started with a strong balance sheet position, obviously with the $1 billion additional asset rotation already executed and signed for the year. That I believe is reducing the January debt to about the -- to levels of the 2022 year-end. We will have more proceeds from this asset rotation transaction through the year, along with a strong contribution from tax equity proceeds as the U.S. projects get to COD. And I expect here more than EUR1 billion contribution.

If we now move to Slide 19, financial results amounted to EUR313 million in 2023, decreasing 30% versus 2022. There are some impacts here. Currency, as we have been rebalancing, as you know, the net hedge investment of the U.S. over exposure. Also, some reversion of the negative impact on -- of forex and derivatives back in 2022, as well as higher capitalized financial expenses in line with the current project timings.

Average cost of debt increased to 4.8%, driven by a higher gross debt of around EUR1 billion year-on-year. And EDPR debt has 82% of the stock at fixed rate, and it's important to mention that our financial liquidity, and that includes cash and committed credit lines, continues to cover refinancing needs beyond 2026, and that more than 70% of our debt matures post-2026.

So if we now move to net profit. Net profit totaled EUR513 million versus EUR671 million back in 2022, impacted by the top line headwinds, partially compensated by the strong execution on the asset rotation side as well as the improved financials.

Non-recurring accounted events at net profit were mainly the PPA cancellation in Massachusetts from Q2, and this is at EBITDA level, the impairment in Colombia this quarter, and the Romanian provision at the depreciation and amortization, and this is related to the tax fallback in Romania.

Lastly, as announced yesterday to the market, the Board of Directors will propose in 2024 General Shareholders' Meeting to continue with the scrip dividend program that we introduced last year for the results corresponding to the year 2023, providing I would say, once again, with a flexible remuneration system for our shareholders that can opt between the cash or shares.

And with this, Miguel, I would hand back to you for closing remarks. Thank you.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade: Thank you, Rui. So, in relation to 2024 guidance. First, I'd say that we reiterate the 4- GW installations for 2024. As I said, 85% is already under construction, 100% secured with long-term revenues and the EDB part is also beginning to progress.

The second is to say that we start off with a strong balance sheet position, and we have a capital increase. We've got EUR2.4 billion of asset rotation proceeds executed and signed as of today. We've had another EUR0.5 billion of tax equity proceeds also cashed in. And we will continue to execute significant volumes of asset rotation proceeds and tax equity during 2024. So, I think that's a positive message and something that we continue to see in the market.

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Despite the 2024 strong expected installations, we do have a lower cumulative capacity added versus the business plan. So, that leads us to estimate a lower volume of renewable generation in the year to around 40 terawatt-hour to 42 terawatt-hour range. Even so, that's a year-on-year growth of around 15% or more than 15%. And despite the high weight of the long-term contracted and hedged generation in our portfolio, there has been a material decline, and I'm sure you've all seen that in the market, over the last couple of months of electricity prices in Europe.

As I mentioned earlier in the presentation, so Brazil and the U.S., there wasn't such a high increase -- there isn't such -- there isn't also a decrease. That leads us to estimate the average selling price for the global renewables' generation portfolio as a whole in the EUR53 per MW hour to EUR55 per MW hour. So we don't normally provide guidance at this point in terms of EBITDA or net income, but let's say this is some sort of help to try and get a view on how we're seeing 2024 as of today.

So as Rui mentioned, we do see some headwinds continue to maintain in 2024, although, obviously, it's a lower size in '23. We've been working through a lot of these issues, but we will continue to have some PPA costs in Colombia. We have non

• but don't forget that we also have some of the hedges in Colombia, so this is not -- it's not such a straightforward calculation there.

We have non-cash costs with hedges due to clawbacks in Romania and also some residual El Nino effects in early 2024, we're assuming an El Nino of, let's say, just one year. And so that would come off sort of over the next two quarters.

So, in relation to guidance for 2024. Our recurring EBITDA is showing a moderate year-on- year growth with a higher underlying contribution excluding capital gains. So, we had a lower underlying in '23 and higher capital gains in '23. And in '24, we expect that the capital gains would be, let's say, in line with what we had in the business plan. And obviously, that means that the higher -- there will be a higher underlying contribution from the business to give us a moderate year-on-year growth for '24.

So I'm not trying to sell you a big story, I'm just saying that I think we -- '23 is definitely a bad year in terms of the underlying. Obviously, we had then a good contribution from the asset rotation. In '24, we're seeing the underlying improve versus '23.

Going forward, we will continue to grow. We will continue to invest based on the investment criteria. I think we've always been very clear about that. I think we've been disciplined about that. We take relatively conservative projections in terms of energy prices for the future. And we will be focusing on projects that give us those returns. So prioritizing returns over volumes. That's something that I also wanted to leave that message, that we are here to create value and we are here to grow, but making sure we're getting the returns that we want.

And I'd stop there and we can turn it over to Q&A and go on in depth wherever you want. Thank you.

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