Giglio S p A : 30/11/2020 - Intesa Sanpaolo Research

Equity

Daily Note

Calls from Italy

On Our Radar: Today's Newsflow

Positive			Negative
Autogrill; Maire Tecnimont			-
New Research
Autogrill (HOLD)	Company Note: HOLD; New TP EUR 5.2/sh
Giglio Group (BUY)	Company Note: BUY; TP EUR 4.4/sh
Pirelli (BUY)	Company Note: BUY (from ADD); New TP EUR 5.4/sh
Prysmian (ADD)	Company Note: ADD; New TP EUR 30.1/sh
Company News
ASTM (HOLD)	A21-A5 Concessions Finally Awarded
Atlantia (HOLD)	CDP Offer Postponed on Valuation
Autogrill (HOLD)	EUR 300M SACE-Backed Loan Signed
Avio (Under Review)	VV17 Analysts' Update Call Feedback
Banca IFIS (BUY)	Closing of Farbanca Acquisition
Iren (BUY)	Lettera al Risparmiatore
Maire Tecnimont (HOLD)	EUR 500M New Contract Related to Amur Project
MZBG (Tender Shares)	Reached 94.6% of the Capital
Telecom Italia (BUY)	Press on Single Network
Unicredit (ADD)	Board of Directors on Governance
Sector News
Insurance Sector	October New Life Business

30 November 2020: 8:38 CET

Date and time of production

Italy/Equity Market

Stock Markets: Performance

Chg (%)	1D	3M	6M	12M
FTSE All Share	0.6	12.0	23.8	-5.4
FTSE MIB	0.7	12.6	24.8	-4.8
FTSE IT Star	1.0	10.2	23.3	6.2

2	Euro Stoxx 50	0.2	3.1	7.0	-8.1
2	Stoxx Small 200	0.4	7.0	16.2	1.2
NASDAQ	0.9	5.0	29.7	40.2
2	S&P 500	0.2	4.4	19.8	15.4
3

3 FTSE MIB Best & Worst: 1D% chg

4	Hera	2.8	Pirelli	-2.1
Prysmian	2.7	Saipem	-1.8
4	Amplifon	2.4	Leonardo	-1.7
4	Euro Stoxx Best&Worst Sectors -1D %
5
Technology	1.4	Real Estate	-0.5
5
Utilities	0.9	Insurance	-0.5
6
Oil & Gas	0.8	Pers/House G	-0.2
6
7	FTSE MIB-STAR Performance (-12M)
7	110
8	105
100
8	95
90
85
	80
9	75
70
65
	60
9	N D J F M A M J J A S O N
FTSE MIB INDEX		FTSE ITALIA STAR

Source: FactSet;

Upcoming Intesa Sanpaolo Events

What?	Where?	When?
ISMO Paris	Virtual	10-11 December

Report priced at market close on day prior to issue; Ratings and Target Prices as assigned in the latest company reports (unless otherwise indicated)

Intesa Sanpaolo Research Dept

Equity Research Team

Corporate Broking Research Team

Sales & Trading [phone]

See page 10 for full disclosure and analyst certification	30 November 2020: 08:40 CET
	Date and time of first circulation

Equity Daily	30 November 2020

New Research

Autogrill (HOLD)

Company Note: HOLD; New TP EUR 5.2/sh

	Rating =	TP (€/sh) ▼	2020E EPS (€) ▼	2021E EPS (€) ▼	2020C EPS (€)	2021C EPS (€)
Current	HOLD	5.2	-1.919	-0.830	-1.800	-0.564
Previous	HOLD	5.4	-0.764	-0.186	-	-

Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and FactSet consensus

Since the day prior to Pfizer's press release announcing the 90%+ efficacy of its anti- COVID vaccine, AGL's stock has delivered a rebound of more than 70% as visibility has improved. While we worsened our 2020E traffic prospects, we adopted a more optimistic view on next year's air traffic recovery, notably in North America, which should allow AGL to breakeven from 2H21 at the cash flow level. However, uncertainties on the traffic rebound persist which, combined with a potential capital increase looming in 2021, suggest a cautious stance.

Autogrill - Key Data

30/11/2020		Travel&Leisure
Target Price (EUR)			5.2
Rating			HOLD
Mkt price (EUR)			5.10
Mkt cap (EUR M)			1297
Main Metrics (€ M)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Revenues	2,189.0	3,066.1	3,928.7
EBITDA	196.7	427.0	631.1
EPS (EUR)	-1.92-0.83-0.15
Net debt/-cash	3,280.2	3,326.5	3,279.7
Ratios (x)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Adj. P/E	Neg.	Neg.	Neg.
EV/EBITDA	24.0	11.5	9.3
EV/EBIT	Neg.	Neg.	NM
Debt/EBITDA	16.7	7.8	5.2
Div yield (%)	0	0	0
Performance (%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute	48.4	15.6	-48.1
Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh	24.6	3.2	-45.1

Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Giglio Group (BUY)

Company Note: BUY; TP EUR 4.4/sh

	Rating =	TP (€/sh) =	2020E EPS (€) ▼	2021E EPS (€) ▼	2020C EPS (€)	2021C EPS (€)
Current	BUY	4.4	0.026	0.132	NM	NM
Previous	BUY	4.4	0.030	0.141	-	-

Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and FactSet consensus

The company reported improving results vs. 9M19 (GMV +28% yoy, revenues +19% yoy), but with a yoy contraction in 3Q20 due to some changes in the group's customers' portfolio. With sales patterns altered due to the health emergency, this year Giglio has been able to capture some players' decisions to move into e-commerce, increasingly adopting an omni-channel strategy. We expect the company's ability to engage new clients and provide innovative e-commerce digital services to continue in 4Q20, overall confirming the positive trend of 9M20.

Luca Bacoccoli - Research Analyst [phone] [e-mail]

Giglio Group - Key Data

30/11/2020		Information
Target Price (EUR)			4.4
Rating			BUY
Mkt price (EUR)			2.23
Mkt cap (EUR M)			41
Main Metrics (€ M)	2020E	2021E	NA
Revenues	49.00	66.76	NA
EBITDA	3.38	5.11	NA
EPS (EUR)	0.03	0.13	NA
Net debt/-cash	17.35	12.73	NA
Ratios (x)	2020E	2021E	NA
Adj. P/E	86.8	16.8	NA
EV/EBITDA	17.2	10.5	NA
EV/EBIT	31.7	13.3	NA
Debt/EBITDA	5.1	2.5	NA
Div yield (%)	0	0	NA
Performance (%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute	0.0	-11.2	-23.3
Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh	-16.1	-20.7	-18.9

Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Intesa Sanpaolo is Specialist to Giglio Group

Arianna Terazzi - Research Analyst [phone] [e-mail]

Alberto Francese - Research Analyst [phone] [e-mail]

2	Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department

Equity Daily	30 November 2020

Pirelli (BUY)

Company Note: BUY (from ADD); New TP EUR 5.4/sh

	Rating ▲	TP (€/sh) ▲	2020E EPS (€) =	2021E EPS (€) =	2020C EPS (€)	2021C EPS (€)
Current	BUY	5.4	0.213	0.323	0.393	0.450
Previous	ADD	4.5	0.213	0.323	-	-

Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and FactSet consensus

Following the recent announcement of the discovery of the Covid-19 vaccine, we are now more confident on both HIS' projections for 2021, which point to a global car production up by 13% in 2021, and a better group trend in AM next year. Pirelli's exposure towards the US, which showed relatively sound resilience so far, and above- all to China, which since April has started to grow yoy and is expected to further improve by 5.4% in 2021, makes 2021 more visible at the P&L and FCF levels. Valuation- wise, we now incorporate a more normalised scenario also in our risk-free rate (0.75%) and equity risk premium (6.5%), thus our rating moves from Add to BUY.

Pirelli - Key Data

30/11/2020	Auto & Components
Target Price (EUR)			5.4
Rating			BUY
Mkt price (EUR)			4.35
Mkt cap (EUR M)			4345
Main Metrics (€ M)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Revenues	4,204.0	4,593.8	4,952.9
EBITDA	766.6	977.2	1,171.2
EPS (EUR)	0.21	0.32	0.42
Net debt/-cash	3,347.1	2,989.7	2,641.8
Ratios (x)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Adj. P/E	20.4	13.4	10.3
EV/EBITDA	10.4	7.8	6.2
EV/EBIT	29.5	16.0	10.9
Debt/EBITDA	4.4	3.1	2.3
Div yield (%)	0.4	1.7	2.9
Performance (%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute	15.4	17.1	-17.9
Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh	-3.1	4.6	-13.2

Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Prysmian (ADD)

Company Note: ADD; New TP EUR 30.1/sh

	Rating =	TP (€/sh) ▲	2020E EPS (€) =	2021E EPS (€) =	2020C EPS (€)	2021C EPS (€)
Current	ADD	30.1	1.017	1.331	1.005	1.383
Previous	ADD	27.2	1.017	1.331	-	-

Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and FactSet consensus

Despite the solid stock rally, we believe that the market has not yet fully discounted either Prysmian's future growth path within the Energy Transmission process nor the potential longer-term upside coming from the digitalisation process and the recovery funds' stimulus for energy efficiency, which could have a strong spill-over effect also on T&I and Power Distribution.

Monica Bosio - Research Analyst [phone] [e-mail]

Prysmian - Key Data

30/11/2020		Capital Goods
Target Price (EUR)			30.1
Rating			ADD
Mkt price (EUR)			26.90
Mkt cap (EUR M)			7213
Main Metrics (€ Bn)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Revenues	10.14	10.49	10.71
EBITDA	0.752	0.927	0.964
EPS (EUR)	1.02	1.33	1.50
Net debt/-cash	2.09	1.90	1.64
Ratios (x)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Adj. P/E	26.5	20.2	17.9
EV/EBITDA	12.9	10.3	9.3
EV/EBIT	22.6	15.8	14.2
Debt/EBITDA	2.8	2.1	1.7
Div yield (%)	1.7	1.9	2.0
Performance (%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute	14.2	15.1	29.3
Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh	-4.2	2.8	36.8

Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Monica Bosio - Research Analyst [phone] [e-mail]

Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department

3

Equity Daily	30 November 2020

Company News

ASTM (HOLD)

A21-A5 Concessions Finally Awarded

Market Mover

Positive

Neutral

Negative

What's up? ASTM announced that the Ministry of Transportation has finally awarded the group the A21 and A5 tenders, which had provisionally been won by the group one month ago. The press release does not report the terms and the conditions at which the two tenders were won but we expect a return below the threshold of 7% set by the ART.

What we think: The news is positive and confirms the ability of the company to renew the expired concessions in Italy. However, we remind that the actual awarding of the concessions is subject to a favourable ruling by the Administrative Court of Lazio regarding the appeal filed to exclude ASTM's subsidiaries from the tender.

ASTM - Key Data

30/11/2020		Transportation
Target Price (EUR)			28.3
Rating			HOLD
Mkt price (EUR)			21.28
Mkt cap (EUR M)			2990
Main Metrics (€ M)	2019E	2020E	2021E
Revenues	1,970.3	2,201.2	2,273.3
EBITDA	770.5	860.1	846.8
EPS (EUR)	1.74	1.20	1.20
Net debt/-cash	695.8	717.6	338.2
Ratios (x)	2019E	2020E	2021E
Adj. P/E	12.2	17.7	17.7
EV/EBITDA	3.5	3.0	2.4
EV/EBIT	6.2	5.4	4.3
Debt/EBITDA	0.90	0.83	0.40
Div yield (%)	2.6	2.8	3.0
Performance (%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute	31.6	22.3	-25.1
Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh	10.5	9.2	-20.8

Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Luca Bacoccoli - Research Analyst [phone] [e-mail]

Atlantia (HOLD)

CDP Offer Postponed on Valuation

Market Mover

Positive

Neutral

Negative

What's up? According to the press (Il Sole, Il Corriere, etc), the Economic Financial Plan (EFP), including ASPI's new tariff proposal and envisaging a tariff increase up to 1.64%, was sent to the CIPE for the technical analysis in cooperation with the NARS. According to the same source, CDP will not submit a new proposal for ASPI within the deadline set by ATL for today as it needs more time for an in-depth due diligence on the network. The reason relates to the level of maintenance expenses, which according to CDP's advisors should be EUR 4Bn higher than the EUR 7Bn included in the EFP, with negative implications on ASPI's valuation. At the same time, in the coming days, the MIT should publish a circular ruling how toll-road concessionaires will recoup the traffic shortfall caused by the pandemic.

What we think: While we see the agreement on the PEF between the government and ASPI as a positive, we fear that the agreement between ATL and CDP on ASPI's valuation is unlikely in the short term, suggesting that the de-merger of the asset will take time.

Atlantia - Key Data

30/11/2020		Motorways
Target Price (EUR)			14.5
Rating			HOLD
Mkt price (EUR)			15.27
Mkt cap (EUR M)			12610
Main Metrics (€ Bn)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Revenues	7.93	10.08	10.75
EBITDA	4.31	6.01	6.58
EPS (EUR)	-0.62	0.91	1.43
Net debt/-cash	40.16	35.63	35.23
Ratios (x)	2020E	2021E	2022E
Adj. P/E	Neg.	16.8	10.7
EV/EBITDA	14.1	9.1	8.2
EV/EBIT	97.0	22.0	16.5
Debt/EBITDA	9.3	5.9	5.4
Div yield (%)	0	5.8	6.4
Performance (%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute	10.3	10.3	-27.3
Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh	-7.4	-1.6	-23.1

Source: FactSet, Company data, Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Luca Bacoccoli - Research Analyst [phone] [e-mail]

4	Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department

Market Mover: The indicators Positive/Neutral/Negative are the analysts' view on the market's possible reaction to the news in question. Intesa Sanpaolo's fundamentals-based12-month rating can be found in the key data table in the comment.