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RETIRE SMART

How much is enough for retirement?

3

ALERTS

YES Bank NRE, FCNR deposits

YES Bank has revised the interest rates on its Non­Resident External Account (NRE) Fixed Deposits by 50 to 75 basis points. It has also hiked its peak interest rate on Foreign Currency Non­Resident (FCNR) deposits by 20 basis points, allowing the NRI customers to avail healthy returns on

their FD. The NRE FD rate for the tenure of 12 months to less than 18 months has been revised to 7.01 per cent p.a. Similarly, the rate for the tenure greater than 18 months has been revised to 7.25 per cent p.a. These revised rates are applicable for deposits less than ₹5 crore. Furthermore, the bank is also offering a peak rate of 4.25 per cent p.a. on USD FCNR deposits for the tenure of 24 months to less than 36 months.

Contactless credit card

BOB Financial Solutions and Snapdeal in partnership with National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and JCB International Co. have announced the launch of the Snapdeal BoB JCB RuPay Credit Card. The card is designed keeping in mind the purchase behaviour of shopping enthusiasts

beats inflation by a comfortable margin	IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO
Start early, invest in a mix of assets that
	GETTY

folio to generate the retirement cor­ pus of 227X (6.8 crore) by the age of 65.

Assuming components of annual income as maintenance, savings and 40 per cent allocation to housing, in­

and will offer a host of attractive benefits and rewards. The card will also be usable at international merchants and ATMs through the extensive JCB global network. Users of the co­branded credit card will receive up to 5 per cent unlimited cashback (accrued as 20 reward points on every ₹100 spent) on the Snapdeal app and website.

SAI PRABHAKAR YADAVALLI

..........................................

BL Research Bureau

One needs to build a large corpus through one's working life so that an equally­long retired life can be spent without any financial hardship. The commitment to such plans, stretch­ ing over decades, can be hard to main­ tain without a firm grasp of the vari­ ous factors involved. Here's what you need to know about accumulating for retirement by factoring in your indi­ vidual risk appetite.

Life expectancy

The maintenance amount required in 20­40 years can be calculated by ap­ plying inflation to that amount. The typical maintenance amount of ₹3 lakh (X) per year (₹25,000 per month for a 30­year­old) will translate to ₹16 lakh by the age of 65, if inflation is as­ sumed to be 5 per cent per year. At an inflation of 6 per cent, it will be 7.7X (₹23.1 lakh) and 3.9X (₹11.8 lakh) at 4 per cent inflation.

This is just the annual maintenance and still not the retirement corpus. To generate 5.5X (₹16 lakh) every year from the age of 65 to 100 years, which

should pay out at an inflation rate of 5 per cent, from a fund that generates returns of 4 per cent per year (­100 bps to inflation, conservatively), the retire­ ment corpus should be 227X (₹6.8 crore). By having invested 227 times current annual maintenance after 35 years in a low­yield bond, the 30­year­ old can survive his/her retirement's 35 years, given inflation stays below 5 per cent.

One can assume a shorter life ex­ pectancy of 90 years, which lowers the required fund to 156X (₹4.7 crore), but retirement planning has to err on the side of longevity as the main risk is outliving the fund.

The current annual maintenance amount (₹3 lakh) at the heart of all the assumptions does not include hous­ ing and insurance costs, which should be arranged by the individual. The 227x would be similarly applied to cur­ rent­year rentals and a lot more to spare for meeting medical emergen­ cies, if not done so. The current dis­ pensation, inclined towards not own­ ing a house, egged on by various financial industry experts, might prove prohibitively expensive at re­ tirement. Similarly, one should have

tied down a comprehensive health in­ surance and completed waiting peri­ ods with accumulated bonuses by re­ tirement.

Building the corpus

Just as compounding inflates the cor­ pus to 227x times on retirement day, one should employ the same com­ pounding to generate such funds dur­ ing one's working life. Compounding needs time to work its magic, hence the saying in investing is 'start early.' The investment avenue itself can be divided into equity and debt, with base assumption of returns at +500 bps/+100 bps premium over inflation from equity and debt respectively.

Over long stretches, equities have provided low double­digit returns and debt investment should provide a premium over inflation. But the crit­ ical aspect is the split of investment between the two.

Assuming an aggressive 90/10 equity/debt split at the age of 30 and slowly moving towards an exact re­ versal of allocation by age of 65, and with the above­mentioned returns, the 30­year­old should invest 0.5X (₹1.5 lakh) every year into his/herport­

surance and others, the portfolio al­ location of 0.5X would translate to 20 per cent savings rate. The above also assumes income growth at 20bps above inflation or 5.2 per cent. The high growth in equity, high propor­ tion in equity and increasing income, hence savings, are generating such compounding effects. If one invests entirely in equity or entirely in debt all through the build­up phase, the in­ vestment at age of 30 would be .4X (₹1.15 lakh) or 0.86X (₹2.6 lakh) per an­ num. But one is extremely risky and the other sub­optimal for any risk pro­ file. One should ideally be placed between the two extremes, and ac­ cording to personal risk aversion.

If the same 30­year­old decides to start retirement planning by age 40, with a similar equity­debt split, the re­ quired investment amount (to gener­ ate 227X by 65) would increase to 1.4X (₹4.27 lakh). By missing a decade of in­ vestment returns, the portfolio would demand a higher outlay of 35 per cent savings (assuming same annual main­ tenance at X or ₹3 lakh).

At the age of 50 the portfolio re­ quired moves to 4.8X (₹14.3 lakh) or 50 per cent savings rate.

PLAY IT SAFE

Retirement planning must err on the side of longevity as the main risk is outliving the fund

THEIR VIEW

Reducing the odds of losing capital

Here are some ways retail investors can avoid paying too much for quality

SONAL MINHAS

..........................................

As institutional investors, we have typ­ ically seen that there exists an inform­ ation asymmetry between institu­ tional and retail investors. Retail investors have limited access to qual­ ity research and many other con­ straints to deal with.

Retail investors therefore are some­ times left with no option but to: 1. Either buy a stock at expensive valu­ ations 2. Invest in momentum behind a stock 3. get caught off­guard when a management ill­treats minority shareholders. All these actions greatly increase the odds of a permanent loss of capital. We believe that the golden rule of investing is to never lose cap­ ital; all other rules come later. One way in which retail investors can make up for the information asymmetry as compared to institutional investors is by adopting a clear framework to in­ vesting and adhering to the rules. In

CM

YK

our analysis, filtering lowing order and reduce the odds of

Quality of a our discussions with tail investors, we that what is often public knowledge quality/ethics of a agement.

Life would be much simpler if we could tag a management as red/yellow/green based on their gov­ ernance practices.

Investors could, however, use the fol­ lowing rule of thumb (list is not comprehensive) safeguard themselves from corrupt/low­ ity managements:

A. Look for related party transactions annual report and managements that have either >20 per cent of their sales or cost related to a group entity.

B. Stay away from companies that do not declare dividends/buybacks even though there is cash sitting on the books.

C. If total promoter remuneration/ perks are greater than 2­3 per cent of the top­line, it is a red flag.

D. If a company's cash flow from operations is less than 50 per cent of the PAT for the last 3­5­year period, such a business is not attractive as it cannot recover its sales, and capital gets stuck in working capital.

E. Stay away from turnarounds and/or managements that are acquis­ itive. These have a very low probability of success even with good manage­ ments.

Quality of a business: Try to find companies that have a return on equity (ROE) > 15 per cent for a 5­10­ year period. Statistically speaking, companies that have a ROE >15 per cent in the last 5­10 years have com­ pounded capital at a higher rate than the companies that have a sub­par ROE.

We can see from the data men­ tioned in the tables that investing in high­quality businesses greatly re­ duced the odds of a permanent loss of capital to less than 2 per cent.

GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO

The data was computed, by first shortlisting companies whose market cap was >₹200 crore five years

and 10 years back, respectively. The companies that had a 5­ year and 10­year return on equity >15 per cent were identi­ fied separately and their me­ dian returns were computed.

Of these companies, the ones that yielded less than zero per cent returns were counted to compute odds of loss of capital.

Pay conservatively for value

Retail investors investing in a mutual fund or a PMS should always check for its trailing Price to Earnings multiple (TTM PE) and check whether it is at a discount or a premium to the index.

A significant mistake a lot of investors and fund managers make is to invest in high­qual­ ity businesses at any price. The same increases the odds of loss of capital or increases the hold­ ing period for recovering cap­ ital. Retail investors often lack the patience to hold stocks for long and end up losing capital.

The best thumb rule for any­

pay more than a TTM PE B2B businesses and a TTM 25x for a consumer­facing

.

he accompanying data urther backs this argu­ ent that in the short erm (up to 3 years of olding period), entry valuation is a significant

determinant even amongst well­managed ompanies.

As the holding period ncreases to 5­10 years, ntry valuation becomes a ess critical determinant to eturns and capital

rotection.

To sum up, if we get the management and the usiness right, the odds of ermanent loss of capital than 2 per cent. Therefore,

investors should focus on in­ clean managements run­ quality businesses that are

available at a reasonable price.

The author is the Founder of Prescient Capital

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