IMMUTEP LIMITED
Biotechnology
5 June 2021 11:06 BST
FLASH NOTE
Immutep Limited (IMM-AU)
Ei combos move towards centre stage at ASCO
KEY TAKEAWAY
Data presented at the ASCO further supports the use of eilagimod alpha ("ei") in PD-1 PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitor ("ICI") combinaons. These include data in 1st line NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) and 2nd line HNSCC (head and neck cancer). The new Phase 2 TACTI-002 interim results show that 7 paents have now seen complete responses to the ei-pembrolizumab ("pembro") combo (2 in 1st line NSCLC and 5 in 2nd line HNSCC). Treatment was well tolerated in the total 127 paents. With 48.4% of evaluable paents responding, the 1st line NSCLC ei-pembro data compares well to an-PD-L1-chemo; but more sustained and without the toxicity. Striking data in normally PD-1 PD-L1 unresponsive 2nd line HNSCC revealed double the ORR expected from ICI alone, including 5 complete responses. With the efficacy and safety of LAG-3 targeted mAbs highlighted in BMS's Relavity047 trial, the Immutep pipeline looks increasingly posioned at the centre of cancer immune-therapy. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendaon and increase our target price to AUD$ 1.24 (from AUD $ 0.90).
Strong basis for HNSCC Phase 2b - The ORR in 2nd line HNSCC was 30% in intenon- to-treat and 36% in evaluable paents; twice that in KEYNOTE-12 using pembro alone (ORR 36% vs. 18%). All responses were durable with no responders progressing within 6 months; five were complete responders. This is a firm basis to move to the TACTi-003 Phase 2b.
Efficacy of chemo-PD-L1 combo in NSCLC without the toxicity - The PFS in 1st line NSCLC for ei-pembropaents was 8.2 compared to 11.2 months in high PD-L1expressors and
4.1 in low. Two paents had a complete response with no responders progressing within 6 months. These responses compare favourably with the currently most potent NSCLC therapy PD-L1-chemo; but without the toxicity.
Early promise in other non-responsive solid cancers - Data from the Phase 1 TACTI-004,released at ASCO, suggests that ei can also have benefit with other solid tumours such as cervical or gastroesophageal that are normally not responsive to an-PD-L1.This suggests that ei could bring benefits to paents where treatment opons remain limited.
Ei potenal in mulple combinaons - We believe growing evidence of safety and sustained efficacy will put LAG-3 targeted therapies and parcularly ei increasingly at the centre of cancer therapy. Shown effecve in combinaon with an-PD-L1, ei also looks to have benefit in combinaon with chemotherapy. Data from the AIPAC breast cancer study published the end of 2020 indicated ei-chemo combinaon has benefits in large paent subgroups. These benefits could be extended by simple modificaons to the treatment protocol. Ei may also have benefits when combined with novel therapies, The Phase 1 2a TACTI-005 aims to test in combinaon with Merck KGaA's bintrafusp alfa (M7824) in the treatment of solid tumours.
Further upside from increasingly de-risked pipeline - Our risk adjusted sum-of-the-parts valuaon of ei and other pipeline assets, indicates that, despite significant recent increases, there is sll substanal upside. We believe Immutep's in-houseand out- licensed pipeline have been substanally de-risked.Ei as a result of TACTI-002and LAG525 out-licensedto Novars as a result of BMS's posive an-LAG-3Relavity047 trial. Increasing success probability suggest significant upside from current levels.
OUTPERFORM
Target Price AUD1.240
(from AUD0.900)
Current Price AUD0.665
EQUITY RESEARCH
DR. CHRIS REDHEAD Research Analyst T +44 (0) 203 859 7725
chris.redhead@goetzpartners.com
This is a markeng communicaon. For professional investors and instuonal use only. The informaon herein is considered to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5).GPSL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 225563). GPSL does and seeks to do business with companies issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beaware that GPSL may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objecvity of this research report. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. GPSL has a formal client relaonship with Immutep Limited.
Please see analyst cerficaons, important disclosure informaon, and informaon regarding the status of analysts on pages 3-5 of this research report.
Page 2
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Immutep (known as Prima BioMed unl November 2017) is an Australian clinical-stage biotechnology company that develops immunotherapies for cancer and autoimmune diseases. Immutep is the global leader in the understanding of and in developing therapeucs that modulate Lymphocyte Acvaon Gene-3("LAG-3").LAG-3 was discovered in 1990 at the Instut Gustave Roussy by Dr Frédéric Triebel, Immutep's Chief Scienfic Officer and Chief Medical Officer. The company has three assets in clinical and one asset in preclinical development. The lead product candidate is eilagimod alpha ("ei"), a first-in- class angen presenng cell ("APC") acvator being invesgated in combinaon with chemotherapy or immune therapy for advanced breast cancer and melanoma. Immutep is dual-listed on the Australian Stock Exchange ("IMM") and on the NASDAQ Global Market ("IMMP") in the US (American Depository Receipts), and has operaons in Europe, Australia, and the US. The company has licensing deals with Novars, GSK and EOC (China only), and clinical trial collaboraon and supply agreements with Merck & Co. and Merck KGaA Pfizer, the laer for lead asset ei.
SCENARIOS
Base Case - GP Investment Case | Bluesky Scenario |
Immutep generates further clinical data on | N/A |
ei and secures an outlicensing deal over the | |
next 12 - 18 months. | |
Peer Group Analysis |
Downside risk
Company is unable to generate further posive data on ei and fails to achieve licensing deal.
SWOT | INDUSTRY EXPECTATIONS |
Strengths: Increasing data supports use of ei in oncology combos. Leader in the understanding of LAG-3; broadest LAG-3 focused pipeline; validaon from large pharma partners (Novars, GSK, Merck & Co.); funded for >12 months.
Weaknesses: One single asset (eilagimod alpha) accounts for the lion share of value; ei has not demonstrated convincing efficacy in monotherapy sengs; ei is protected mainly by use and formulaon patents, as the composion of maer patent has already expired.
Opportunies: LAG-3 could become the third pillar in immune checkpoint therapy and ei is the most advanced LAG-3 focused asset; ei could be the first immuno-oncology drug to be approved for metastac breast cancer; oncology drugs addressing high unmet needs oen enjoy shorter development and approval melines than therapeucs in other disease areas; significant M&A acvity in the immuno- oncology space.
Threats: EMA and FDA raise the hurdles for immunotherapy drugs.
Immutep is developing immunotherapies for cancer, with a focus on the immune checkpoint LAG-3. The immune checkpoint inhibitor ("ICI") class has experienced rapid adopon since the launch of BMS's Yervoy (ipilimumab) in 2011, owing to their ability to elicit durable responses in 20 - 50% of paents for up to 10 years. The global ICI market was worth $16.8bn in 2018 and is expected to nearly triple by 2022E, driven largely by expanding use of exisng therapies both in approved and new indicaons. The race is on to develop novel compounds with complementary mechanisms of acon for combinaon therapy able to augment response rate without increasing toxicity, which, if successful, are expected to enjoy rapid uptake.
This is a markeng communicaon. For professional investors and instuonal use only. The informaon herein is considered to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5).GPSL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 225563). GPSL does and seeks to do business with companies issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beaware that GPSL may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objecvity of this research report. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. GPSL has a formal client relaonship with Immutep Limited.
Please see analyst cerficaons, important disclosure informaon, and informaon regarding the status of analysts on pages 3-5 of this research report.
Page 3
Important Disclosures: Non-Independent Research
Analyst Cerficaon
I, Dr. Chris Redhead, hereby cerfy that the views regarding the companies and their securies expressed in this research report are accurate and are truly held. I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensaon in exchange for expressing specific recommendaons or views in this research report.
Meaning of goetzpartners Research Rangs
goetzpartners securies Limited ("GPSL") publishes investment recommendaons, which reflect the analyst's assessment of a stock's potenal relave return. Our research offers 4 recommendaons or 'rangs':
OUTPERFORM - Describes stocks that we expect to provide a relave return (price appreciaon plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12- month period.
NEUTRAL - Describes stocks that we expect to provide a relave return (price appreciaon plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.
UNDERPERFORM - Describes stocks that we expect to provide a relave negave return (price appreciaon plus yield) of 10% or more within a 12-month period.
NON-RATED - Describes stocks on which we provide general discussion and analysis of both up and downside risks but on which we do not give an investment recommendaon.
Companies Menoned in this report
- (BRISTOL MEYERS SQUIBB)
- (NOVARTIS)
- (MERCK KGAA)
- (BIOTECH)
- (BIOTECHNOLOGY)
- Immutep Limited (IMM-AU)
Valuaon Methodology
GPSL's methodology for assigning recommendaons may include the following: market capitalisaon, maturity, growth value, volality and expected total return over the next 12 months. The target prices are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF, premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.
Frequency
This research will be reviewed at a frequency of 3 months. Any major changes to the planned frequency of coverage will be highlighted in future research reports.
Conflicts of interest
GPSL is required to disclose any conflicts of interest which may impair the firm's objecvity with respect to any research recommendaons contained herein. Please click on the link to view the latest version of our Conflicts of Interest policy.
We are also required to disclose any shareholdings of the firm or our affiliates in any relevant issuers which exceed 5% of the total issued share capital or any other significant financial interests held:
GPSL shareholdings in relevant issuers >5% - None.
GPSL wishes to disclose that it is party to a formal client agreement with Immutep Limited relang to the provision of advice and equity research services.
To avoid potenal conflicts of interest arising, restricons on personal account dealing are placed on analysts and other staff. The firm's personal account dealing policy expressly prohibits staff and or relevant connected persons from dealing in the securies of a relevant issuer. Analysts must not trade in a manner contrary to their published recommendaon or deal ahead of the publicaon of any research report.
If our contractual relaonship with a client ceases, then please be advised that GPSL will no longer publish equity research on the specific client and any recipients of our equity research publicaons should not rely on our forecasts valuaon that have previously been published in the last full company research publicaon. Please note that GPSL will not publish a cessaon of coverage noce to the market. Also, in accordance with the provision of MiFID2 - if any of our clients are not contractually paying GPSL to write and publish equity research, then we will not publish any future equity research publicaons to the market on the issuer unl all of our unpaid fees have been fully paid.
To comply with the regulatory requirement to disclose. We disclose the monthly proporon of recommendaons that are OUTPERFORM, NEUTRAL, UNDERPERFORM and NON-RATED. We also disclose a summary of the history of our analysts' investment recommendaons (in accordance with EU MAR rules effecve 3rd July 2016). goetzpartners publishes this informaon on the following link: Research Summary.
This is a markeng communicaon. For professional investors and instuonal use only. The informaon herein is considered to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5).GPSL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 225563). GPSL does and seeks to do business with companies issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beaware that GPSL may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objecvity of this research report. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. GPSL has a formal client relaonship with Immutep Limited.
Please see analyst cerficaons, important disclosure informaon, and informaon regarding the status of analysts on pages 3-5 of this research report.
Page 4
Country-Specific Disclosures
United Kingdom: goetzpartners securies Limited ("GPSL") is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA");
registered in England and Wales No. 04684144; Registered Office Address: The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG,
England, UK; telephone +44 (0)20 3859 7725. GPSL's FCA Firm Reference Number is: 225563. In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this research report has been prepared, issued and or approved for distribuon by GPSL and is intended for use only by persons who have, or have been assessed as having, suitable professional experience and experse, or by persons to whom it can be otherwise lawfully distributed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. This markeng communicaon is classed as 'non-independent research' and, as such, has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. GPSL has adopted a Conflicts of Interest management policy in connecon with the preparaon and publicaon of research, the details of which are available upon request in wring to the Compliance Officer or on the web link above in the Conflicts of Interest secon above. GPSL may allow its analysts to undertake private consultancy work. GPSL's conflicts management policy sets out the arrangements that the firm employs to manage any potenal conflicts of interest that may arise as a result of such consultancy work.
Other EU Investors: This research report has been prepared and distributed by GPSL. This research report is a markeng communicaon for the purposes of Direcve 200439EC (MiFID). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is not subject to any prohibion on dealing ahead of the disseminaon of investment research. GPSL is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the FCA in connecon with its distribuon and for the conduct of its investment business in the European Economic Area. This research report is intended for use only by persons who qualify as professional investors or eligible counterpares (instuonal investors) in the applicable jurisdicon, and not by any private individuals or other persons who qualify as retail clients. Persons who are unsure of which investor category applies to them should seek professional advice before placing reliance upon or acng upon any of the recommendaons contained herein.
U.S. PERSONS: This research report has been prepared by GPSL, which is authorised to engage in securies acvies in England and Wales and to conduct designated investment business in the European Economic Area. GPSL is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States of America and therefore is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparaon of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report is provided for distribuon in the United States solely to "major U.S. instuonal investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securies Exchange Act of 1934.
Other countries: Laws and regulaons of other countries may also restrict the distribuon of this research report. Persons in possession of research publicaons should inform themselves about possible legal restricons and observe them accordingly.
Immutep Limited Rating History as of 04/06/2021
powered by: BlueMatrix
I:(BUY):AUD0.08 | (BUY):AUD0.08 | (BUY):AUD0.80 | (BUY):AUD0.32 | (BUY):AUD0.61 | (BUY):AUD0.90 | |||||
11/07/2018 | 29/10/2019 | 07/11/2019 | 26/03/2020 | 14/05/2020 | 14/12/2020 |
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Jul 18 | Oct 18 | Jan 19 | Apr 19 | Jul 19 | Oct 19 | Jan 20 | Apr 20 | Jul 20 | Oct 20 | Jan 21 | Apr 21 |
Closing Price | Target Price | ||||||||||
Risks
This is a markeng communicaon as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA"). The informaon herein is considered an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5). Informaon relang to any company or security is for informaon purposes only and should not be interpreted as a solicitaon to buy or sell any security or to make any investment. The informaon in this research report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but it has not been independently verified. No representaon is made as to its accuracy or completeness, no reliance should be placed on it and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it, except to the extent required by the applicable law. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without noce. Opinions, projecons, forecasts or esmates may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of goetzpartners securies Limited ("GPSL"). They reflect only the current views of the author at the date of the research report and are subject to change without noce. GPSL's research reports are not intended for Retail Clients as defined by the FCA. This research report is intended for professional clients only. Research reports are for informaon purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitaon for the subscripon or purchase or sale of any securies, or as an invitaon, inducement or intermediaon for the sale, subscripon or purchase of any securies, or for engaging in any other transacon. The analysis, opinions, projecons, forecasts and esmates expressed in research reports were in no way affected or influenced by the issuer. The authors of research reports benefit financially from the overall success of GPSL. The investments referred to in research reports may not be suitable for all recipients. Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon their own appropriate invesgaons. Any loss or other consequence arising from the use of the material contained in a research report shall be the sole and exclusive responsibility of the investor and GPSL accepts no liability for any such loss or consequence. In the event of any doubt regarding any investment, recipients should contact their own investment, legal and or tax advisers to seek advice
This is a markeng communicaon. For professional investors and instuonal use only. The informaon herein is considered to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5).GPSL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 225563). GPSL does and seeks to do business with companies issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beaware that GPSL may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objecvity of this research report. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. GPSL has a formal client relaonship with Immutep Limited.
Please see analyst cerficaons, important disclosure informaon, and informaon regarding the status of analysts on pages 3-5 of this research report.
Page 5
regarding the appropriateness of invesng. Some of the investments menoned in research reports may not be readily liquid investments which may be difficult to sell or realise. Past performance and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. Some investments discussed in research publicaons may have a high level of volality. High volality investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value which may cause losses. Some of the informaon or data in this research report may rely on figures denominated in a currency other than that of GBP (the currency should be stated), the return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuaons. Internaonal investment includes risks related to polical and economic uncertaines of foreign countries, as well as currency risk. To the extent permied by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequenal loss, damages, costs or prejudices whatsoever arising from the use of research reports or their contents.
GPSL record electronic and phone communicaons in accordance with FCA and MiFID2 regulaons, they are monitored for regulatory and training purposes.
Compensaon
GPSL has received compensaon from Immutep Limited for the provision of research and advisory services within the previous twelve months.
IMM-AU
AUD1.240 | Company Update
5 June 2021
goetzpartners securies Limited
The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, England, UK.
Tel: +44 (0)203 859 7725
www.goetzpartnerssecuries.com
This is a markeng communicaon. For professional investors and instuonal use only. The informaon herein is considered to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5).GPSL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 225563). GPSL does and seeks to do business with companies issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beaware that GPSL may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objecvity of this research report. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. GPSL has a formal client relaonship with Immutep Limited.
Please see analyst cerficaons, important disclosure informaon, and informaon regarding the status of analysts on pages 3-5 of this research report.
Attachments
- Original document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
Immutep Ltd. published this content on 05 June 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 06 June 2021 02:50:04 UTC.