SberIndex: consumption patterns and volumes return to pre-pandemic levels

Consumer spending grew at a rate of +12.5% y-o-y between July 26 and August 1. Despite a slight decline in spending volume (-1.5 pp w-o-w),SberIndex analysts believe that consumer demand has stabilized at high levels and that its current dynamics match the GDP growth rate at 4.2-4.3% y-o-y as of the end of 2021.

The volume of spending decreased by 1.5% compared to the previous week (July 19-25), with changes observed across all categories except for the tourism segment. Growth in the hotels, air/rail tickets, and fuel categories ranged from 1% to 5%.

The growth rate for household expenses in July was +10.4% y-o-y, a slight acceleration compared to June (+10.1% y-o-y).

The increase in spending in July in real terms was +0.4% m-o-m (SA, in real terms). The negative impact of the base effect due to the surge in demand in July 2020 was compensated by a change in consumption structure. The fall in spending in June so far appears to be a one-off. Consumer demand has stabilized at high levels, and its current dynamics match the GDP growth rate at 4.2-4.2% y-o-y as of the end of 2021.

An increase has been noted in spending on household appliances and electronics (+11.2% y-o-y), vehicles and spare parts (+11.7% y-o-y), and building products (+10.7% y-o-y).

Growth has also resumed in the Department Stores category, which encompasses key online retailers (+22.0% y-o-y at the end of July, +27.7% y-o-y at the end of Jul 26-Aug 1).

SberIndex analysts note that consumer activity has generally normalized compared to the 2020 base. The commotion associated with changes in consumption patterns during lockdown has virtually disappeared. SberIndex will therefore be refocusing on performance in relation to last year's levels (% y-o-y), as well as seasonally adjusted monthly data (% m-o-m, SA, real terms).

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SberIndex.ru is an analytical website by Sberbank that illustrates how life in Russia has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, there are several key indices on the website based on anonymized data: a consumer activity index, changes to the activity index, and a tourism index. The evolution of gross payroll and changes to small business activity are presented in the Business section. The website also features research by SberIndex Lab (previously SberData), the Center for Macroeconomic Research, and more.