COMPETENT PERSONS REPORT
Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria
For
Savannah Energy PLC
Strand Hanson Limited
Cavendish Capital Markets Ltd
Panmure Gordon (UK) Limited
Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
DISCLAIMER AND CONDITIONS OF USAGE
Professional Qualifications
CGG Services (UK) Limited (CGG) is a geological and petroleum reservoir consultancy that provides a specialist service in field development and the assessment and valuation of upstream petroleum assets.
CGG has provided consultancy services to the oil and gas industry for over 50 years. The work for this report was carried out by CGG specialists having between five and 20 years of experience in the estimation, assessment and evaluation of hydrocarbon reserves.
Except for the provision of professional services provided on a fee basis and products on a licence basis, CGG has no commercial arrangement or interest with Savannah Energy PLC (Savannah) or the assets, which are the subject of the report or any other person or company involved in the interests.
Data and Valuation Basis
In estimating petroleum in place and recoverable, CGG has used the standard techniques of petroleum engineering. There is uncertainty inherent in the measurement and interpretation of basic geological and petroleum data. There is no guarantee that the ultimate volumes of petroleum in place or recovered from the field will fall within the ranges quoted in this report.
CGG has independently assessed the proposed development schemes and validated estimates of capital and operating costs, modifying these where it was judged appropriate. The capital and operating costs have been combined with production forecasts based on the Reserves or Resources at the P90 (Proved), P50 (Proved + Probable) and P10 (Proved + Probable + Possible) levels of confidence and the other economic assumptions outlined in this report in order to develop an economic assessment for these petroleum interests. CGG's valuations do not take into account any outstanding debt or accounting liabilities, nor future indirect corporate costs such as general and administrative costs.
CGG has valued the petroleum assets using the industry standard discounted cash flow technique. In estimating the future cash flows of the assets CGG has used extrapolated economic parameters based upon recent and current market trends. Estimates of these economic parameters, notably the future price of crude oil and natural gas, are uncertain and a range of values has been considered. There is no guarantee that the outturn economic parameters will be within the ranges considered.
In undertaking this valuation CGG have used data supplied by Savannah in the form of geoscience reports, seismic data, engineering reports and economics data. The supplied data has been supplemented by public domain regional information where necessary.
CGG has used the working interest percentages that Savannah Energy PLC has in the Properties, as communicated by Savannah Energy PLC. CGG has not verified nor do they make any warranty to Savannah Energy PLC's interest in the Properties.
Within this report, CGG makes no representation or warranty as to: (i) the amounts, quality or deliverability of reserves of oil, natural gas or other petroleum; (ii) any geological, geophysical, engineering, economic or other interpretations, forecasts or valuations; (iii) any forecast of expenditures, budgets or financial projections; (iv) any geological formation, drilling prospect or
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
hydrocarbon reserves; (v) the state, condition or fitness for purpose of any of the physical assets, including but not limited to well, operations and facilities related to any oil and gas interests or (vi) any financial debt, liabilities or contingencies pertaining to the organisation, Savannah Energy PLC.
CGG affirms that from 1st January 2024 (the effective date of the evaluation) to the date of issue of this report, 1) there are no material changes known to CGG that would require modifications to this report, and 2) CGG is not aware of any matter in relation to this report that it believes should and may not yet have been brought to the attention of Savannah Energy PLC.
In order to conform to the AIM Note for Mining, Oil & Gas Companies (June 2009) published by the London Stock Exchange, CGG has compiled this CPR to conform with Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) (2018) and the PRMS Guidelines (2011) sponsored by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), The American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), The World Petroleum Congress (WPC) and the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE). Further details of PRMS are included in Appendix B of the CPR.
Conditions of Usage
This report was compiled using existing data during the period 1st September 2023 to 1st January 2024. However, if substantive new data or facts become available or known, then this report should be updated to incorporate all the relevant data.
CGG has made every reasonable effort to ensure that this report has been prepared in accordance with generally accepted industry practices and based upon the data and information supplied by Savannah Energy PLC for whom, and for whose exclusive and confidential use (save for where such use is for the Purpose defined below), this report is made. Any use made of the report shall be solely based on Savannah Energy PLC's own judgement and CGG shall not be liable or responsible for any consequential loss or damages arising out of the use of the report.
The copyright of this CPR document remains the property of CGG. It has been provided to Savannah Energy PLC, Strand Hanson Limited, Cavendish Capital Markets Ltd and Panmure Gordon (UK) Limited for the purpose of including it (and making any references to it or its contents) in Savannah Energy PLC's published public announcements relating to its Nigerian assets and disclosing it on the Savannah Energy PLC's website in accordance with the AIM Rules and specifically to the AIM Note for Mining, Oil & Gas Companies (these together being the "Purpose"). CGG agrees to disclose the enclosed CPR to Savannah Energy PLC, its affiliates, Strand Hanson Limited, Cavendish Capital Markets Ltd and Panmure Gordon (UK) Limited for the Purpose. Save for use in connection with the Purpose, the recipient should also note that this document is being provided on the express terms that, other than for the Purpose, it is not to be copied in part or as a whole, used or disclosed in any manner or by any means unless as authorised in writing by CGG. Notwithstanding these general conditions, CGG additionally agrees to the publication of the CPR document, in full, on the Savannah Energy PLC's website in accordance with the AIM rules.
The accuracy of this report, data, interpretations, opinions and conclusions contained within, represents the best judgement of CGG, subject to the limitations of the supplied data and time constraints of the project. In order to fully understand the nature of the information and conclusions contained within the report it is strongly recommended that it should be read in its entirety.
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
CGG Services (UK) Limited Reference No: NB540
Rev | Date | Originator | Checked & | Issue Purpose |
Approved | ||||
01 | 18th March 2024 | AKS/PC/PMD/ | AJW | Final Report |
TU | ||||
Date
Originator
Checked & Approved
Signed:18th March 2024
AKS/PC/PMD/TU
Prepared for: | Prepared By: | |
Savannah Energy PLC | Strand Hanson Limited | |
40 Bank Street | 26 Mount Row | Andrew Webb |
London | London | |
CGG Services (UK) Limited | ||
E14 5NR | W1K 3SQ | |
Crompton Way, Manor Royal Estate | ||
Cavendish Capital Markets Ltd | Panmure Gordon (UK) Limited | Crawley, West Sussex RH10 9QN |
United Kingdom | ||
One Bartholomew Close | One New Change | |
London | London | |
EC1A 7BL | EC4M 9AF | |
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
TABLE OF CONTENTS | |||
1.3 | Reserves and Resources | 11 | |
1.4 | Economic evaluation | 13 | |
2 | INTRODUCTION | 14 | |
2.1 | Overview | 14 | |
2.2 | Sources of information | 15 | |
2.3 | Principal contributors | 16 | |
2.4 | Evaluation methodology | 17 | |
3 | GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS | 18 | |
3.1 | Regional geology | 18 | |
3.2 | Uquo Field | 19 | |
3.2.1 | Uquo Field summary | 19 | |
3.2.2 | Uquo Field subsurface overview | 21 | |
3.2.3 | Uquo Field petrophysics | 26 | |
3.2.4 | Uquo Field In-Place volumes | 27 | |
3.3 | Stubb Creek Field | 30 | |
3.3.1 | Stubb Creek Field summary | 30 | |
3.3.2 | Stubb Creek Field subsurface overview | 31 | |
3.3.3 | Stubb Creek Field petrophysics | 36 | |
3.3.4 | Stubb Creek Field In-Place volumes | 37 | |
4 | RESERVOIR ENGINEERING | 39 | |
4.1 | Uquo Marginal Field | 39 | |
4.1.1 | Overview | 39 | |
4.1.2 | Recoverable volumes and forecast | 40 | |
4.2 | Stubb Creek Marginal Field | 42 | |
4.2.1 | Overview | 42 | |
4.2.2 | Recovery factor | 42 | |
4.2.3 | Recoverable volumes and forecast | 42 | |
5 | FACILITES AND COSTS | 45 | |
5.1 | Uquo Field | 45 | |
5.1.1 | Existing facilities | 45 | |
5.1.2 | Development plans | 45 | |
5.1.3 | Operating costs | 45 | |
5.1.4 | Decommissioning costs | 45 | |
5.2 | Stubb Creek Field | 46 | |
5.2.1 | Existing facilities | 46 | |
5.2.2 | Development plans | 46 | |
5.2.3 | Operating costs | 46 | |
5.2.4 | Decommissioning | 46 |
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
5.3 | Accugas | 47 | |
5.3.1 | Development costs | 47 | |
5.3.2 | Operating costs | 48 | |
5.3.3 | Decommissioning costs | 48 | |
6 | ECONOMIC EVALUATION | 49 | |
6.1 | Methodology | 49 | |
6.2 | Paying and Revenue interests | 49 | |
6.3 | Fiscal terms | 49 | |
6.4 | Oil prices | 50 | |
6.5 | Gas prices | 50 | |
6.6 | Other assumptions | 52 | |
6.7 | Economic results | 52 | |
6.7.1 | Upstream Assets | 52 | |
6.7.2 | Midstream Assets (Accugas) | 53 | |
6.7.3 | Upstream and Midstream Financial Forecasts | 54 | |
7 APPENDIX A: PRODUCTION PROFILES | 55 | ||
8 | APPENDIX B: DEFINITIONS | 56 | |
8.1 | Definitions | 56 | |
8.1.1 | Total Petroleum Initially-In-Place | 57 | |
8.1.2 | Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place | 57 | |
8.1.3 | Undiscovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place | 57 | |
8.2 | Production | 58 | |
8.3 | Reserves | 58 | |
8.3.1 | Developed Producing Reserves | 58 | |
8.3.2 | Developed Non-Producing Reserves | 58 | |
8.3.3 | Undeveloped Reserves | 58 | |
8.3.4 | Proved Reserves | 58 | |
8.3.5 | Probable Reserves | 59 | |
8.3.6 | Possible Reserves | 59 | |
8.4 | Contingent Resources | 59 | |
8.4.1 | Contingent Resources: Development Pending | 59 | |
8.4.2 | Contingent Resources: Development Un-Clarified/On Hold | 60 | |
8.4.3 | Contingent Resources: Development Unclarified | 60 | |
8.4.4 | Contingent Resources: Development Not Viable | 60 | |
8.5 | Prospective Resources | 60 | |
8.5.1 | Prospect | 61 | |
8.5.2 | Lead | 61 | |
8.5.3 | Play | 61 | |
8.5.4 | Unrecoverable Resources | 61 | |
9 | APPENDIX C: NOMENCLATURE | 62 |
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
FIGURES | |
Figure 2-1 Location of fields and infrastructure (Source: Savannah, 2023) | 15 |
Figure 3-1 Depobelts of the Niger Delta (Source: CGG) | 18 |
Figure 3-2 Lithostratigraphic column showing the key Tertiary sedimentary sequences in the Niger Delta (Source: Tuttle et al., | |
U.S. Geological Survey, 1999) | 19 |
Figure 3-3 Uquo field structure map (Source: Savannah, 2021) | 20 |
Figure 3-4 Schematic diagram showing the reservoir intervals of the Uquo field (Source: Savannah, 2021) | 20 |
Figure 3-5SSW-NNE seismic line through Uquo-3 and Uquo-2 areas (Source: Savannah, 2021) | 22 |
Figure 3-6 Relative Acoustic Impedance at the D1.0 level with depth contours in mSS (Source: Savannah, 2021) | 23 |
Figure 3-7W-E Seismic crossline for Uquo-2 and Uquo NE area showing tops of target units. See inset map for location | |
(Source: Savannah, 2021) | 24 |
Figure 3-8SW-NE seismic inline over Uquo NE area (Source: Savannah, 2021) | 25 |
Figure 3-9 Map of prospects in the Uquo Marginal Field licence area (Source: Savannah, 2024) | 26 |
Figure 3-10Uquo-2 petrophysical interpretation (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 27 |
Figure 3-11 Map showing the outline of the Stubb Creek oil field at Upper D3 level (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 30 |
Figure 3-12 Savannah outlines of the C sand gas reservoirs (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 31 |
Figure 3-13SW-NE line through Stubb Creek (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 33 |
Figure 3-14 Minimum amplitude map (+/-8ms) of the UC3 reservoir (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 34 |
Figure 3-15 C9 Minimum Relative Acoustic Impedance map (top+8ms) - (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 35 |
Figure 3-16SC-1 C3 gas reservoir petrophysical interpretation (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 36 |
Figure 3-17 Upper D3 oil reservoir petrophysical interpretation (Source: Savannah, 2019) | 37 |
Figure 4-1 Uquo historical gas production as at 31st December 2023 | 39 |
Figure 4-2 Uquo Field production forecast profiles (Reserves cases) | 41 |
Figure 4-3 Stubb Creek field historical oil production as at 1st January 2024 | 42 |
Figure 4-4 Stubb Creek production forecast profiles | 43 |
Figure 4-5 Uquo and Stubb Creek fields production forecast profiles (Reserves and Contingent Resources cases) | 44 |
Figure 5-1 Uquo, Stubb Creek, Accugas and associated infrastructure (Source: Savannah, 2022) | 47 |
Figure 8-1 Resources Classification Framework | 56 |
Figure 8-2 Resources Classification Framework: Sub-classes based on project maturity | 57 |
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
TABLES | |
Table 1-3 Reserves as at 1st January 2024 | 11 |
Table 1-4 Contingent Resources | 12 |
Table 1-5 Prospective Resources | 12 |
Table 1-6 NPV10 (US$MM) of Reserves Net to Savannah as at 1st January 2024 | 13 |
Table 1-7 Proved and Probable NPV10 (US$MM) sensitivities as at 1st January 2024 | 13 |
Table 1-8 Accugas NPV10s (US$MM) as at 1st January 2024 | 13 |
Table 2-1 Current licence details | 14 |
Table 3-1 Uquo Marginal Field GIIP | 28 |
Table 3-2 Uquo Marginal Field: GIIP excluded from development plan | 29 |
Table 3-3 Uquo Unrisked Prospective Resources GIIP | 29 |
Table 3-4 Stubb Creek Marginal Field GIIP | 38 |
Table 3-5 Stubb Creek Marginal Field STOIIP | 38 |
Table 4-1 Summary of Uquo Field gas reservoirs and producing/planned wells | 40 |
Table 4-2 Summary of Uquo Field gas recovery factors | 40 |
Table 4-3 Summary of Uquo Gross Technical Reserves as at 1st January 2024 | 40 |
Table 4-4 Summary of Uquo Gross Contingent Resources | 41 |
Table 4-5 Summary of Uquo Gross Unrisked Gross Prospective Resources | 41 |
Table 4-6 Summary of Stubb Creek Field oil recovery factors | 42 |
Table 4-7 Summary of Stubb Creek Field Gross Technical Reserves as at 1st January 2024 | 43 |
Table 4-8 Summary of Stubb Creek Field Gross Contingent Resources | 44 |
Table 4-9 Summary of Stubb Creek Field Gross Unrisked Prospective Resources | 44 |
Table 5-1 Uquo - Reserves and Contingent Resources well schedules | 45 |
Table 5-2 Stubb Creek - Contingent gas resources well schedules | 46 |
Table 6-1 Summary of fiscal terms | 50 |
Table 6-2 Upstream nominal gas price assumed in the economic model | 51 |
Table 6-3 Details of Downstream GSA's | 51 |
Table 6-4 Downstream average nominal gas price assumed in the economic model | 51 |
Table 6-5 Economic parameters | 52 |
Table 6-6 NPV10 (US$MM) of Reserves Net to Savannah as at 1st January 2024 | 52 |
Table 6-7 Proved and Probable NPV10 (US$MM) sensitivities as at 1st January 2024 | 53 |
Table 6-8 Accugas NPV10s (US$MM) as at 1st January 2024 | 53 |
Table 6-9 Annual financial forecasts net to Savannah for the Upstream Assets and the Midstream Assets | 54 |
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
At the request of Savannah Energy PLC (Savannah), Strand Hanson Limited, Cavendish Capital Markets Ltd and Panmure Gordon (UK) Limited, CGG Services (UK) Limited (CGG) have prepared a Competent Persons Report (CPR) on the petroleum interests held by Savannah Energy PLC (Savannah) in Nigeria, namely, the Uquo and Stubb Creek Marginal Fields and the Accugas Midstream Business (Accugas).
The effective date for the evaluation is 1st January 2024.
1.1 Licence interests
Savannah holds an 80% interest in the exploration, development and production of gas within the Uquo Field through its 80% indirectly owned subsidiary Savannah Energy Uquo Gas Limited (SEUGL). The remaining 20% indirect interest in SEUGL is held by African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM), a leading African-focused private equity firm. SEUGL holds responsibility for all operations of the gas project at the Uquo Field, including control of gas-related capital investment projects and day to day gas operations.
Savannah also holds a direct 51% operated interest in the Stubb Creek Field through its 100% ownership of Universal Energy Resources Limited (Universal).
In addition, Savannah holds an 80% interest in Accugas, which owns and operates the 200 MMscf/d Uquo gas Central Processing Facility (CPF) and c. 260 km pipeline network, as well as holding Gas Sales Agreements (GSA) with downstream customers. The remaining 20% interest in Accugas is held by AIIM.
Asset | Operator | Savannah's | Status | Licence expiry date | Licence | ||||||||||||
Interest (%) | Area | ||||||||||||||||
Uquo Gas | SEUGL* | 80% | Production | 2035 | 171 km2 | ||||||||||||
Stubb Creek | Universal | 51% | Production | 2026 | 42 km2 |
* SEUGL is the Operator of the Uquo Gas Project
Table 1-1 Current licence details
For the Uquo Marginal Field, the licence was renewed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for a period of 20 years on 18th June 2015. For the Stubb Creek Marginal Field, the licence was renewed by the NUPRC for a period of 10 years from 1st May 2016.
CGG have assumed, based on its experience, and pursuant to the relevant Marginal Field Guidelines, that the NUPRC is likely to extend the licences beyond the above tabulated expiry dates, if there are still Reserves to be produced. These extensions would be awarded in several phases until the fields reached the end of their economic lives. The Reserves stated in this CPR therefore assume production to the end of the economic lives of the fields.
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Uquo and Stubb Creek fields, Nigeria CPR
1.2 Asset details
1.2.1 Uquo Field
The Uquo Field produces gas from 5 wells and has been on production since Q1 2014. Production is sold under a GSA to Accugas, a company in which Savannah has an 80% interest. Accugas currently processes, distributes and markets the gas to one power plant and a cement factory under long-term take or pay contracts, as well as other industrial customers in the Port-Harcourt area. A summary of the contracts is in Table1-2.To maintain the contracted production rates, Savannah plans to bring onstream 3 additional wells over the next 6 years while Accugas will install compression facilities at the Uquo CPF. A water disposal well is also planned.
1.2.2 Stubb Creek Field
The Stubb Creek Field is producing oil from 3 wells and has been on production since Q1 2015. Production is transported via pipeline to the ExxonMobil operated Qua Iboe Terminal. Universal plans to debottleneck the production facility to increase capacity from about 3,000 bopd to 5,000 bopd. A water disposal well is also planned. The Contingent Gas Resources will be developed and sold to Accugas, once the Uquo Field Reserves and Contingent Resources are not sufficient to meet the Daily Contracted Quantity (DCQ).
1.2.3 Accugas
The Accugas facilities consist of a 200 MMscf/d gas Central Processing Facility (CPF) located near to the Uquo Field, and approximately 260 km of pipelines connecting the CPF to the current Downstream gas purchasers. Total Daily Contracted Quantity (DCQ) under two long-term GSA's is 155.2 MMscf/d, and these GSAs have Take or Pay (ToP) provisions within them (set at 80% of DCQ). Additional volumes are also contracted under Interruptible GSAs with Central Horizon Gas Company (CHGC), a subsidiary of Axxela, Notore Chemical Industries (Notore), Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) and Shell Nigeria Gas Limited (SNG).
Length of contract | Start date | Contract | DCQ | Take or | ||||||||||||
end | Pay (ToP) | |||||||||||||||
Calabar Power Plant | 20 years | Sep-17 | Sep-37 | 131.0 MMscf/d | 80% of | |||||||||||
DCQ | ||||||||||||||||
Lafarge Africa Plc (was | 25 years | Jan-12 | Jan-37 | 24.19 MMscf/d | 80% of | |||||||||||
Unicem Cement Plant) | DCQ | |||||||||||||||
CHGC (an Axxela | 1-year initial term | Jun-22 | Jun-24 | Nominations up | N/A | |||||||||||
subsidiary) | extended by 12 months | to 10 MMscf/d | ||||||||||||||
Notore | 1-year initial term | Aug-22 | Aug-24 | Nominations up | N/A | |||||||||||
extended by 12 months | to 10 MMscf/d | |||||||||||||||
The Shell Petroleum | 6-month initial period | Nominations up | ||||||||||||||
Development Company | Jun-22 | Apr-24 | N/A | |||||||||||||
extended | to 3 MMscf/d | |||||||||||||||
of Nigeria (SPDC) | ||||||||||||||||
Shell Nigeria Gas | 6-month initial period | Jun-23 | June-24 | Nominations up | N/A | |||||||||||
Limited (SNG) | extended by 6 months | to 3 MMscf/d | ||||||||||||||
Table 1-2 Details of Accugas GSA's
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Savannah Energy plc published this content on 19 March 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 March 2024 06:52:04 UTC.