Housing Delivery Test: 2020 Measurement

52 local authorities out of 317 have failed to deliver over 75 per cent of their housing requirement in the three years to March 2020. These areas will face presumption in favour of sustainable development as per sanctions set out in the 2020 Housing Delivery Test.

The figure is a substantial increase on the eight local authorities that faced the most stringent sanction under the 2019 test. The increase is, in part, due to the introduction of the highest housing delivery threshold for presumption in favour to apply since the test was introduced in 2018.

Over two thirds of local authorities have passed the test under the 2020 measurement, delivering over 95 per cent of their housing requirement. In the three years to March 2020, these 215 local authorities delivered a total of 602,549 homes against a total housing requirement of 416,554.

An additional 10 per cent of local authorities delivered between 85 per cent and 95 per cent of housing need in the three-year period, and will be required to produce an action plan exploring ways to reduce the risk of further under delivery within the next year.

We have calculated the results for local authorities that came into being on 1 April 2019 using the combined housing requirement and delivery figures of
their constituent former local authorities.

March 2020 saw the first national lockdown as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic, and the subsequent disruption to housing delivery within this period has been reflected in this year's test. As a result of restricted delivery, the number of homes required in the year to March 2020 has been reduced by one month. This has had a material impact on the results of the test for 19 local authorities.

In total, seven local authorities saw their delivery edge over 85 per cent, avoiding a 20 per cent buffer applied to their future housing requirement. An additional 12 local authorities benefitted from housing delivery increasing to over 95 per cent of requirement, thereby avoiding the lightest sanction of the test. No local authority eluded presumption in favour of sustainable development as a result of a reduced housing requirement.

The changes raise questions over the structure of the 2021 test, with lockdown measures playing a much more substantial role in delivery disruption in the year to March 2021.

In general, all regions performed positively on the test, with London one of only two regions to see delivery fall below requirement over the three-year period.

While providing enough homes to almost match or exceed requirement respectively, East of England and South East were the next poorest performing regions across England, with the former missing total housing requirement by just 295 homes in the three years to March 2020.

Regions towards the north of England fared better, with the North West delivering 53 per cent over requirement and the North East delivering 166 per cent of requirement.

At a local authority level, the areas performing poorest on the test are generally those surrounding key urban centres in places where land supply is heavily constrained. Of the 52 local authorities that failed to deliver 75 per cent of requirement in the three years to March 2020, three quarters have some element of Green Belt coverage. These authorities cover 550,000 hectares of land and 59 per cent is Green Belt. They will need to consider whether a Green Belt review is required in the future to address their failure to deliver enough homes.

However, in many situations, Green Belt is not the only land constraint in play, and many areas failing to adequately meet their housing requirement are also constrained by National Parks, AONBs and SSSIs.

The Government's new standard method calculation is increasing housing need in large urban centres across England and for many of these authorities urban expansion, possibly into neighbouring authorities and/or the Green Belt, will be a key solution. This will hold particular significance for Bristol, with the area both failing the 2020 Housing Delivery Test and seeing a housing requirement uplift under the new standard method.

Housing Delivery Test Results (2020 Measurement)

Further information

Contact Hamish Simmie

Contact Savills Research