SPINEGUARD Morning Note - 5th October 2022
SPINEGUARD | France - Medtech | |||||||
Q3 revenues: the rebound is confirmed | BUY | |||||||
▪ A return to good momentum | Fair value (EUR) | 1.56 | ||||||
▪ | US distribution on the rise | Price (EUR) | 0.416 | |||||
▪ | Potential still intact | Upside/down side | +274.6% | |||||
Good trend
SpineGuard reported last night Q3 sales of EUR 1.48m, up +44% (+29% at constant exchange rates). The growth was observed in the US (+24% excluding USD effect). In the rest of the world, sales are also up strongly (+42%). Over the period, 1,361 DSG units were sold, up 17% compared to Q3 2021 (+18% in the US and +15% in the rest of the world). The difference between revenue growth (+44%) and growth in units sold (+17%) is explained by upfronts payments from partners for exclusive distribution in certain areas or milestone payments in new product developments. These sales are catching up with our scenario at the end of Q2. Our expectations are now in line with a similar growth scenario in Q4.
US now in the green
The good surprise of this publication is that the horizon in the United States looks brighter. The agreement with Wishbone Medical is delivering in full, with the partner's sales force and the range effect helping to open doors previously closed to agents. Wishbone has the critical mass to negotiate with hospital group purchase departments, who cannot give agents time for the DSG range alone. This situation is obviously more comfortable for SpineGuard. The growth prospects are real. A similar dynamic should be established with the new partner Omnia, which completes the network of Wishbone (specialist in paediatric orthopaedics). Omnia's contribution should nevertheless come a little later after the development and approval of specific devices.
Valuation and rating
The pace has been regained after moments of uncertainty linked to the pandemic and its impact on operating theatre schedules, followed by the fatigue/unavailability of nursing staff. These figures give colour to the dossier, the fundamentals of which are intact. The ingredients are there for a return to sustainable growth, and innovations should eventually bring new opportunities (other indications including dental, robotics, guidance, "intelligent" devices, etc.). Financial capacity remains limited but the company may still have financing lines enabling it to reach value creation steps. We therefore confirm our positive opinion on this dossier, whose current valuation does not include the potential of the assets
Next communication:Q4 revenues - January 2023 (te be determined)
Lionel Labourdette, PhD, MBA
lionel@biostrategic-research.com+33 617 965 019
Stock data (2022-10-04)
ISIN | FR0011464452 |
Ticker | ALSGD.PA |
Price (EUR) | 0.416 |
Market capitalisation (EURm) | 13.2 |
Free float (%) est. | 96.1 |
Floating capitalisation (EURm) | 12.7 |
Number of shares (,000) | 31,741 |
Average daily volume (3 m) | 125,333 |
12m performance
2,0 | ||||||
1,5 | ||||||
1,0 | ||||||
0,5 | ||||||
0,0 | 05/06/22 | |||||
05/10/21 | 05/12/21 | 05/02/22 | 05/04/22 | 05/08/22 | 05/10/22 | |
ALSGD | ALSGD rel to CAC Small & Mid 190 |
Change (%) | 1 m | 3 m | 12m |
Absolute | -32.6 | -42.4 | -68.1 |
Rel. to CAC SM190 | -27.3 | -40.1 | -50.0 |
Rel. to Next Biotech | -26.2 | -37.0 | -64.1 |
Financials (31/12)
EURm | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 4.4 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 8.9 |
EBITDA | -1.5 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
EBIT | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Net income | -2.7 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
EPS (EUR) | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
Net debt | 4.4 | -1.0 | -1.6 | -2.8 |
Key ratios
2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | |
EV/Sales | 7.5x | 2.2x | 1.6x | 1.2x |
EV/EBITDA | na | na | na | 10.8x |
EV/EBIT | na | na | na | 16.6x |
PER | na | na | na | 27.4x |
ROIC | na | na | na | 17% |
ROE | na | Na | na | 7% |
EV/IC | 7.8x | 2.9x | 2.9x | 2.8x |
Gearing | na | -19% | -28% | -42% |
The issuer and Biostrategic Partners have agreed that Biostrategic Partners will produce and disseminate investment research as a service
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Profit and Loss
As of 31/12 (EURm) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.62 | 7.16 | 8.91 |
Change n-1 | 9.5% | -7.3% | -9.9% | -29.0% | -9.2% | 27.6% | 27.4% | 24.4% |
Other revenues | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Total revenues | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.62 | 7.16 | 8.91 |
Gross margin | 6.95 | 6.55 | 5.77 | 4.04 | 3.61 | 4.56 | 5.90 | 7.38 |
EBITDA | -2.66 | -0.86 | -0.14 | -1.49 | -1.04 | -0.38 | 0.35 | 0.97 |
Change n-1 | 20% | 68% | 84% | -993% | 30% | 63% | 191% | -178% |
Depreciation & amortisation | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
Goodwill | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
EBIT | -2.96 | -1.11 | -0.43 | -1.84 | -1.35 | -0.71 | 0.01 | 0.63 |
Change n-1 | 18% | 63% | 61% | -326% | 27% | 47% | 102% | -4338% |
Net financial income | -1.16 | -1.21 | -0.64 | -0.84 | -0.30 | -0.40 | -0.28 | -0.15 |
Minorities | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Net profit before tax | -4.13 | -2.32 | -1.07 | -2.68 | -1.65 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Tax | - | -0.02 | 0.39 | -0.04 | -0.08 | - | - | - |
Net in come | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -2.72 | -1.72 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Change n-1 | 1% | 43% | 71% | -296% | 37% | 35% | 77% | 285% |
EPS | -0.72 | -0.34 | -0.05 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
EPS fully diluted | -0.65 | -0.31 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
Gross margin (% of sales) | 85.1% | 86.5% | 84.5% | 83.2% | 81.9% | 81.2% | 82.5% | 82.9% |
EBITDA (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 4.9% | 10.9% |
EBIT (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0.2% | 7.1% |
Net margin (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 5.4% |
Cash Flow statement
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Net income | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -2.72 | -1.72 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Depreciation and amortisation | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
Goodwill | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Change in WCR | 0.26 | -0.08 | 0.27 | 0.64 | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.46 | 0.40 |
Others | 1.05 | 1.49 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.13 |
Cash-flow from operations | -2.51 | -0.67 | 0.60 | -0.68 | -1.23 | -0.30 | 0.80 | 1.36 |
Capex | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
Free cash flow | -2.56 | -0.72 | 0.52 | -0.73 | -1.27 | -0.38 | 0.72 | 1.28 |
Acquisitions | - | - | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
Divestments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Dividends | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital increase | 2.21 | 1.68 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 6.48 | 1.00 | - | - |
Financing (bank and others) | 0.01 | 4.64 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.04 | - | - | - |
Others | -0.26 | -5.73 | -1.54 | -0.99 | -0.91 | -1.19 | -1.13 | -1.06 |
Change in cash over the period | -0.61 | -0.13 | 0.80 | -0.12 | 4.01 | -0.72 | -0.56 | 0.07 |
Opening cash position | 1.80 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 2.01 | 2.03 | 6.33 | 5.76 | 5.36 |
Closing cash position | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 6.04 | 5.61 | 5.21 | 5.43 |
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Balance sheet
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Fixed assets | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
Intangible assets | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.38 |
Goodwill | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
Financial assets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Inventories | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.88 |
Account receivables | 1.38 | 1.32 | 0.95 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
Other receivables | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
Cash and cash equivalents | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.40 | 1.22 | 5.21 | 4.64 | 4.23 | 4.45 |
Prepaid expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other non-current assets | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
Total assets | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.50 | 8.06 | 11.90 | 11.23 | 11.12 | 11.73 |
Equity | -0.21 | -0.50 | 0.59 | -0.01 | 5.06 | 5.30 | 5.65 | 6.64 |
Others | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Provisions | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Financial debt | 6.23 | 6.07 | 6.08 | 5.64 | 4.47 | 3.65 | 2.66 | 1.67 |
Account payables | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 1.34 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 1.13 |
Other debts | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.54 | 1.92 |
Deferred income and other liabilities | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
Total liabilities | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.50 | 8.06 | 11.90 | 11.23 | 11.12 | 11.73 |
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IMPORTANT INFORMATION
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This publication has been prepared under the only responsibility of BioStrategic Partners.
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Every precaution has been taken by Biostrategic Partners to ensure that the information contained in this publication come from sources considered reliable. Unless otherwise specifically indicated in this publication. all opinions. estimations and forecasts given. are those of Biostrategic Partners at that date and may be revised without prior notice.
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Neither Biostrategic Partners nor SwissLife Banque Privée shall be liable for any damage that may result from the incorrect or incomplete nature of this publication. Neither Biostrategic Partners or SwissLife Banque Privée is not liable for any investment decisions. regardless of their nature. made by the users of this publication on its basis.
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Investors should note that any income from financial instruments can fluctuate and that prices can fall as well as rise. Past and simulated performance does not guarantee future performance.
Detection of potential conflicts of interest
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with Biostrategic Partners | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | |||
The analyst has a familial relationship with a founding partner of IPF Partners who holds SpineGuard' bonds with warrants attached
- Biostrategic Partners has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- Biostrategic Partners holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
- The company who is the subject of this analysis holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in Biostrategic Partners.
- Biostrategic Partners and/or one of its affiliates is/are liquidity provider(s) or market maker(s) for (one of) the company's financial instrument/s.
- Biostrategic Partners has agreed with the company to provide a service of production and distribution of analysis regarding the company.
- Biostrategic Partners has modified its conclusions after notifying the company before its distribution of this analysis.
- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of Biostrategic Partners is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with SwissLifeBanquePrivée | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | |||
- SwissLife Banque Privée has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
- The company who is the subject of this analysis holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in SwissLife Banque Privée.
- SwissLife Banque Privée and/or one of its affiliates is/are liquidity provider(s) or market maker(s) for (one of) the company's financial instrument/s.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has agreed with the company to provide a service of production and distribution of analysis regarding the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has modified its conclusions after notifying the company before its distribution of this analysis.
- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of SwissLife Banque Privée is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
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Swiss Life Banque Privée
Société Anonyme au capital de 37.092.080 €
Code établissement bancaire n°11 238
RCS Paris 382 490 001
7. place Vendôme - F 75041 Paris Cedex 01 - France Tél. : +33 1 53 29 14 14
BioStrategic Partners SAS
Société par Actions Simplifiée au capital de 30. 000 €
RCS Paris 530 430 487
140 bis. rue de Rennes - F 75006 Paris - France
Tél. : +33 6 17 96 50 19
BioStrategic Research est une marque déposée de BioStrategic Partners SAS
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SpineGuard SA published this content on 05 October 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 05 October 2022 08:01:06 UTC.
