THE GEO GROUP, INC. |
Market Closed -
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 14.87 USD | +0.54% |
|
+2.06% | +37.30% |
| Apr. 18 | GEO Group Closes $1.28 Billion Private Offering of Notes to Refinance Debt | MT |
| Apr. 18 | The GEO Group Solicits Proxies from Shareholders | CI |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 1,980 | 1,056 | 929.3 | 1,320 | 1,322 | 1,898 | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 1,980 | 1,056 | 929.3 | 1,320 | 1,322 | 1,898 | 1,898 |
| P/E ratio | 11.9 x | 9.43 x | 13.4 x | 9.36 x | 14.1 x | 14.7 x | 10.8 x |
| Yield | - | - | 3.23% | - | - | - | - |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 0.8 x | 0.45 x | 0.41 x | 0.56 x | 0.55 x | 0.77 x | 0.75 x |
| EV / Revenue | 0.8 x | 0.45 x | 0.41 x | 0.56 x | 0.55 x | 0.77 x | 0.75 x |
| EV / EBITDA | - | 2.4 x | 1.99 x | 2.45 x | 2.61 x | 3.75 x | 3.46 x |
| EV / FCF | - | 3.17 x | 4.36 x | 6.4 x | 6.24 x | 8.82 x | 7.06 x |
| FCF Yield | - | 31.5% | 22.9% | 15.6% | 16% | 11.3% | 14.2% |
| Price to Book | - | 1.18 x | 0.96 x | 1.15 x | 1.06 x | 1.36 x | 1.2 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 119,223 | 119,153 | 119,913 | 120,548 | 122,061 | 127,618 | - |
| Reference price 2 | 16.61 | 8.860 | 7.750 | 10.95 | 10.83 | 14.87 | 14.87 |
| Announcement Date | 2/26/20 | 2/16/21 | 2/17/22 | 2/14/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 2,478 | 2,350 | 2,257 | 2,377 | 2,413 | 2,450 | 2,518 |
| EBITDA 1 | - | 439.8 | 467 | 539.2 | 507.2 | 506.5 | 548.3 |
| EBIT 1 | - | 243.7 | 288.1 | 383.1 | 361.3 | 362.9 | 402.6 |
| Operating Margin | - | 10.37% | 12.77% | 16.12% | 14.97% | 14.81% | 15.99% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | - | 124.1 | 192.8 | 229.8 | 146.9 | 175.3 | 239 |
| Net income 1 | - | 113 | 77.42 | 171.8 | 114 | 130.5 | 179.8 |
| Net margin | - | 4.81% | 3.43% | 7.23% | 4.72% | 5.33% | 7.14% |
| EPS 2 | 1.400 | 0.9400 | 0.5800 | 1.170 | 0.7700 | 1.012 | 1.373 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | - | 332.9 | 213.2 | 206.4 | 211.9 | 215.1 | 268.9 |
| FCF margin | - | 14.17% | 9.45% | 8.68% | 8.78% | 8.78% | 10.68% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | - | 75.71% | 45.67% | 38.28% | 41.79% | 42.46% | 49.05% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | - | 294.55% | 275.44% | 120.12% | 185.93% | 164.79% | 149.58% |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | 0.2500 | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 2/26/20 | 2/16/21 | 2/17/22 | 2/14/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 Q3 | 2021 Q4 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 557.3 | 557.5 | 551.2 | 588.2 | 616.7 | 620.7 | 608.2 | 593.9 | 602.8 | 608.3 | 603.8 | 608.8 | 615.7 | 622.1 | 623.8 |
| EBITDA 1 | 116 | 124.1 | 125.2 | 132.3 | 136.2 | 145.5 | 130.9 | 129 | 118.7 | 129 | 120.4 | 125.1 | 129.6 | 132 | 144.6 |
| EBIT 1 | 74.02 | 76.02 | 81.53 | 95.07 | 98.12 | 108.4 | 92.66 | 92.38 | 83.59 | 92.66 | 83.2 | 89.48 | 93.64 | 96.59 | 107.3 |
| Operating Margin | 13.28% | 13.63% | 14.79% | 16.16% | 15.91% | 17.46% | 15.23% | 15.56% | 13.87% | 15.23% | 13.78% | 14.7% | 15.21% | 15.53% | 17.2% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 41.4 | 50.02 | 54.91 | 71.09 | 48.49 | 55.34 | 39.43 | 39.19 | 30.32 | 38.01 | 32.73 | 42.1 | 48.26 | 52.21 | 65.98 |
| Net income 1 | 34.71 | -49.8 | 38.22 | 53.73 | 38.34 | 41.53 | 28 | 29.57 | 24.52 | 31.89 | 23.99 | 31.43 | 36.13 | 38.96 | 48.44 |
| Net margin | 6.23% | -8.93% | 6.93% | 9.13% | 6.22% | 6.69% | 4.6% | 4.98% | 4.07% | 5.24% | 3.97% | 5.16% | 5.87% | 6.26% | 7.77% |
| EPS 2 | 0.2400 | -0.4100 | 0.2600 | 0.3700 | 0.2600 | 0.2800 | 0.1900 | 0.2000 | 0.1600 | 0.2100 | 0.1925 | 0.2450 | 0.2750 | 0.2975 | 0.3600 |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 11/4/21 | 2/17/22 | 5/3/22 | 8/2/22 | 10/27/22 | 2/14/23 | 4/25/23 | 8/9/23 | 11/7/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net Cash position | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | - | 333 | 213 | 206 | 212 | 215 | 269 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | - | 11.8% | 16.5% | 16% | 9.56% | 9.5% | 12.4% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | - | 2.58% | 3.52% | 4.13% | 3.15% | 3.7% | 5.6% |
| Assets 1 | - | 4,389 | 2,200 | 4,164 | 3,618 | 3,527 | 3,210 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | - | 7.530 | 8.090 | 9.540 | 10.20 | 10.90 | 12.40 |
| Cash Flow per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capex 1 | - | 109 | 69.4 | 90 | 73 | 88 | 88 |
| Capex / Sales | - | 4.63% | 3.08% | 3.79% | 3.03% | 3.59% | 3.49% |
| Announcement Date | 2/26/20 | 2/16/21 | 2/17/22 | 2/14/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
C-
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
3
Last Close Price
14.87
USD
Average target price
19.27
USD
Spread / Average Target
+29.61%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +37.30% | 1.9B | |
| +36.16% | 27.94B | |
| -13.74% | 26.97B | |
| +25.00% | 26.95B | |
| -0.71% | 25.32B | |
| +44.49% | 22.58B | |
| +2.78% | 19.59B | |
| +1.45% | 19.52B | |
| +28.54% | 16.23B | |
| -14.80% | 14.98B |
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- Financials The GEO Group, Inc.
