Umicore : Mobility transformation – Capture peak profitability and maximize value in Automotive Catalysts

S P E A K E R

Bart Sap

Mobility Transformation

Automotive Catalysts:

Capture peak profitability and maximize value

Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022

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Agenda

1.	2.	3.
Mobility transformation	Emission control	Umicore
ICE gradually declining,	catalyst market	Well positioned to
but remaining dominant	Attractive value to	capture peak
powertrain for LDV and	capture the next	profitability and
HDV by 2030	decade	maximize value
4.
RISE 2030

Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022

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Accelerating mobility transformation

ICE remains dominant powertrain solution in 2030

Light-duty vehicles	Heavy-duty vehicles
Proportion by powertrain in global production	Proportion by powertrain in global production
Source: Umicore market model - LDV	Source: Umicore market model - HDV (incl. medium-duty vehicles, on-road vehicles only)

									66%										78%
95%									by 2030										by 2030
in 2021
										98%
										in 2021
20 21	20 22	20 23	20 24	20 25	20 26	20 27	20 28	20 29	20 30	20 21	20 22	20 23	20 24	20 25	20 26	20 27	20 28	20 29	20 30
		BEV		FC	PHEV		ICE only				BEV	FC		CNG/LNG	PHEV		ICE only

BEV: battery electric vehicle	PHEV: plug-in (hybrid) vehicle
FC: fuel cell vehicle
CNG/LGN: Compressed natural gas / Liquefied natural gas	ICE: internal combustion engine (gasoline/diesel) only

Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022

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Light-Duty Vehicles

Peak in ICE car production expected in 2023

Light-duty vehicles

Global vehicle production by powertrain

	Peak of
	~80 Mn ICE	-2%
+7%
	CAGR	-5%	2021
CAGR			CAGR
			production
				level
				~60 Mn
				ICE

2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
			Diesel Global	Gasoline Global

Source: Umicore market model - LDV (ICE + PHEV)

Light-duty ICE production volumes expected to grow until 2023 driven by post-COVID and post-chip shortage rebound as well as growth in emerging economies

Beyond peak, initial slight market reduction, followed by sharper decline as of 2027 due to accelerating BEV penetration

Light-duty diesel dropping faster between 2021 and 2030 especially in Europe

Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022

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Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Continued growth in ICE HDV towards 2030

Heavy-duty vehicles

Global vehicle production by region

	+2%	~5 Mn
+3%	CAGR
HDV
CAGR
	2021
		production
		level

~4 Mn

HDV

2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
	China	Europe	North America		Japan/Korea	India		ROW

Source: Umicore market model

HDV (emissionized Heavy-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles; on-road only)

Production volumes expected to recover and grow over the decade: total addressable emissionized market in 2030 ~25% bigger than in 2021

Lower growth rate from 2026 reflecting high penetration of emissionized ICE vehicles and increasing BEV and FC

Production expected to increase in China and India

Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022

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