Financials Viva Energy Group Limited

Equities

VEA

AU0000016875

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

Market Closed - Australian S.E. Other stock markets 02:10:44 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
3.44 ^AUD	-2.27%		-1.99%	-1.43%

Apr. 17	Viva Energy Group Tobacco Sales Drop 17% for March Quarter; Group Sales Rise 7.5%	MT
Mar. 28	Viva Energy Group Completes AU$1.22 Billion Buyout of OTR Group	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	3,734	3,063	3,638	4,217	5,372	5,462	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	6,319	5,701	6,213	6,383	8,152	9,652	9,673	9,486
P/E ratio	33.7 x	-101 x	16.1 x	8.2 x	1,745 x	13.8 x	13.1 x	11.6 x
Yield	2.45%	3.53%	3.11%	9.89%	4.47%	5.26%	5.63%	6.06%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.23 x	0.25 x	0.23 x	0.16 x	0.2 x	0.18 x	0.18 x	0.17 x
EV / Revenue	0.38 x	0.46 x	0.39 x	0.24 x	0.3 x	0.32 x	0.32 x	0.3 x
EV / EBITDA	9.8 x	11 x	12.8 x	5.93 x	11.4 x	9.42 x	9.06 x	8.36 x
EV / FCF	26.2 x	108 x	18 x	7.96 x	43.8 x	312 x	27 x	16.5 x
FCF Yield	3.81%	0.93%	5.56%	12.6%	2.29%	0.32%	3.7%	6.08%
Price to Book	1.4 x	1.73 x	1.72 x	1.79 x	1.94 x	2.47 x	2.49 x	2.47 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,584,407	1,555,426	1,547,939	1,544,832	1,539,273	1,587,881	-	-
Reference price ²	2.356	1.969	2.350	2.730	3.490	3.440	3.440	3.440
Announcement Date	2/23/20	2/23/21	2/20/22	2/20/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	16,542	12,410	15,900	26,433	26,741	30,546	29,972	31,838
EBITDA ¹	644.5	519.4	484.2	1,076	712.8	1,025	1,068	1,134
EBIT ¹	340.7	130.6	308.3	892.5	517.6	766.4	808.1	861.3
Operating Margin	2.06%	1.05%	1.94%	3.38%	1.94%	2.51%	2.7%	2.71%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	152.5	-186.5	343.4	731.8	36.7	639.8	778.2	896.8
Net income ¹	113.3	-36.2	232.9	514.3	3.8	390.9	421.5	479.2
Net margin	0.68%	-0.29%	1.46%	1.95%	0.01%	1.28%	1.41%	1.51%
EPS ²	0.0700	-0.0196	0.1460	0.3330	0.002000	0.2500	0.2634	0.2955
Free Cash Flow ¹	241	52.9	345.6	802.3	186.3	30.9	357.8	576.4
FCF margin	1.46%	0.43%	2.17%	3.04%	0.7%	0.1%	1.19%	1.81%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	37.39%	10.18%	71.38%	74.58%	26.14%	3.02%	33.51%	50.8%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	212.71%	-	148.39%	156%	4,902.63%	7.9%	84.89%	120.27%
Dividend per Share ²	0.0577	0.0695	0.0730	0.2700	0.1560	0.1809	0.1936	0.2084
Announcement Date	2/23/20	2/23/21	2/20/22	2/20/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 S1	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	8,730	6,667	5,743	7,217	8,683	11,517	14,916	12,723	14,018	7,081	8,170	14,418	8,132	7,936	15,394	7,520	14,771	14,857
EBITDA	347.1	269.3	250.1	403.2	227.9	611.7	464.1	361.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	167.7	73.9	56.7	205.5	138.6	524.9	367.6	275.8	241.8	134.8	153.6	307.3	160.8	166.7	382	203.8	405	422.8
Operating Margin	1.92%	1.11%	0.99%	2.85%	1.6%	4.56%	2.46%	2.17%	1.72%	1.9%	1.88%	2.13%	1.98%	2.1%	2.48%	2.71%	2.74%	2.85%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	-52.3	189.2	-	-	-	-72.4	109.1	127.2	124.7	252	131.9	136.3	268.2	173.7	364.5	389.6
Net income ¹	-	-	-47.3	130.1	102.8	520.9	-6.6	-77.5	81.3	89.1	87.3	176.4	92.3	95.4	187.8	121.6	255.2	272.7
Net margin	-	-	-0.82%	1.8%	1.18%	4.52%	-0.04%	-0.61%	0.58%	1.26%	1.07%	1.22%	1.13%	1.2%	1.22%	1.62%	1.73%	1.84%
EPS ²	-	-	-0.0258	0.0825	-	-	-	-0.0500	0.0520	0.0560	0.0550	0.1110	0.0580	0.0600	0.1180	0.0760	0.1600	0.1710
Dividend per Share ²	0.0319	0.009820	0.0612	0.0423	0.0320	0.1370	0.1330	0.0850	0.0710	0.0360	0.0360	0.0720	0.0380	0.0390	0.0770	0.0500	0.1040	0.1110
Announcement Date	2/23/20	8/16/20	2/23/21	8/23/21	2/20/22	8/24/22	2/20/23	8/21/23	2/20/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	2,586	2,639	2,576	2,166	2,780	4,190	4,211	4,024
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	4.012 x	5.08 x	5.319 x	2.013 x	3.9 x	4.089 x	3.943 x	3.547 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	241	52.9	346	802	186	30.9	358	576
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	4.94%	-1.5%	9.19%	23%	7.85%	20.5%	20.5%	21.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.07%	-0.5%	2.79%	6.46%	3.59%	4.64%	4.97%	5.36%
Assets ¹	5,464	7,236	8,340	7,966	105.7	8,432	8,477	8,935
Book Value Per Share ²	1.680	1.140	1.370	1.520	1.790	1.390	1.380	1.390
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.2500	0.1200	0.3300	0.7100	0.4400	0.5000	0.5000	0.5500
Capex ¹	162	157	185	304	493	503	449	374
Capex / Sales	0.98%	1.27%	1.16%	1.15%	1.84%	1.65%	1.5%	1.18%
Announcement Date	2/23/20	2/23/21	2/20/22	2/20/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Viva Energy Group Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

3.44 AUD

Average target price

3.964 AUD

Spread / Average Target

+15.22%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Petroleum Product Wholesale

	1st Jan change	Capi.
VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED	-1.43%	3.56B
PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS	-5.24%	5.86B
PETRONAS DAGANGAN	0.00%	4.55B
QATAR FUEL COMPANY Q.P.S.C. ("WOQOD")	-13.69%	3.91B
RUBIS	+44.27%	3.57B
AMERIGAS PARTNERS, L.P.	+23.40%	3.23B
PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK	+8.47%	1.95B
WORLD KINECT CORPORATION	+1.01%	1.38B
ITOCHU ENEX CO.,LTD.	+0.07%	1.1B
SK GAS CO., LTD.	+11.08%	1.07B

Petroleum Product Wholesale