Financials Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd.

Equities

2212

JP3935600001

Food Processing

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
3,902 ^JPY	+3.58%		+8.12%	+21.33%

Apr. 26	Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter and Full Year of Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2024	CI
Apr. 26	Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. Provides Dividend Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	423,696	374,783	325,213	328,392	662,350	790,474	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	389,237	337,890	284,928	289,417	607,544	720,144	687,399	667,258
P/E ratio	30.6 x	53.9 x	31.4 x	26.6 x	22 x	22.3 x	21.5 x	20.2 x
Yield	1.03%	1.28%	1.44%	1.4%	0.78%	1.01%	1.08%	1.16%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.4 x	0.37 x	0.31 x	0.3 x	0.56 x	0.63 x	0.62 x	0.61 x
EV / Revenue	0.37 x	0.33 x	0.27 x	0.27 x	0.52 x	0.58 x	0.54 x	0.52 x
EV / EBITDA	6.28 x	6.16 x	4.83 x	4.71 x	7.38 x	7.36 x	6.87 x	6.47 x
EV / FCF	23.1 x	37.1 x	14.8 x	26.8 x	20.9 x	23.3 x	19.1 x	16.3 x
FCF Yield	4.33%	2.69%	6.77%	3.73%	4.78%	4.3%	5.23%	6.14%
Price to Book	1.29 x	1.13 x	0.95 x	0.9 x	1.66 x	1.88 x	1.78 x	1.67 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	217,391	217,391	212,836	208,635	205,954	202,582	-	-
Reference price ²	1,949	1,724	1,528	1,574	3,216	3,902	3,902	3,902
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/12/21	2/15/22	2/14/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	1,061,152	1,014,741	1,052,972	1,077,009	1,175,562	1,248,841	1,269,596	1,288,276
EBITDA ¹	62,012	54,858	58,975	61,468	82,280	97,786	100,093	103,202
EBIT ¹	24,824	17,438	18,359	22,032	41,962	53,587	56,180	58,909
Operating Margin	2.34%	1.72%	1.74%	2.05%	3.57%	4.29%	4.43%	4.57%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	23,345	16,406	19,955	23,218	45,821	54,067	56,630	59,355
Net income ¹	13,858	6,956	10,378	12,368	30,168	34,965	36,723	38,652
Net margin	1.31%	0.69%	0.99%	1.15%	2.57%	2.8%	2.89%	3%
EPS ²	63.75	32.00	48.60	59.10	146.2	174.9	181.9	192.8
Free Cash Flow ¹	16,868	9,101	19,281	10,789	29,045	30,930	35,923	40,999
FCF margin	1.59%	0.9%	1.83%	1%	2.47%	2.48%	2.83%	3.18%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	27.2%	16.59%	32.69%	17.55%	35.3%	31.63%	35.89%	39.73%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	121.72%	130.84%	185.79%	87.23%	96.28%	88.46%	97.82%	106.07%
Dividend per Share ²	20.00	22.00	22.00	22.00	25.00	39.29	42.29	45.43
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/12/21	2/15/22	2/14/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	537,111	507,826	506,915	512,210	249,845	290,917	259,727	268,525	528,252	263,876	284,881	276,839	287,105	563,944	282,281	329,337	611,618	306,658	310,770	614,600	298,587	340,108	-
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	11,362	9,868	7,570	12,223	1,474	4,662	6,945	7,436	14,381	1,644	6,007	9,335	11,275	20,610	7,258	14,094	21,352	16,512	16,219	29,300	8,438	14,712	-
Operating Margin	2.12%	1.94%	1.49%	2.39%	0.59%	1.6%	2.67%	2.77%	2.72%	0.62%	2.11%	3.37%	3.93%	3.65%	2.57%	4.28%	3.49%	5.38%	5.22%	4.77%	2.83%	4.33%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	9,837	-	13,503	1,651	-	7,410	-	15,796	2,408	-	9,429	-	22,028	7,619	-	-	17,614	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	6,010	4,899	2,057	7,237	573	2,568	3,920	5,103	9,023	923	2,422	5,483	8,572	14,055	4,813	11,300	16,113	10,944	12,035	18,300	5,728	8,065	-
Net margin	1.12%	0.96%	0.41%	1.41%	0.23%	0.88%	1.51%	1.9%	1.71%	0.35%	0.85%	1.98%	2.99%	2.49%	1.71%	3.43%	2.63%	3.57%	3.87%	2.98%	1.92%	2.37%	-
EPS ²	-	22.54	-	33.80	2.740	12.06	18.60	24.40	43.00	4.480	11.62	26.45	41.54	67.99	23.39	54.81	78.20	53.58	58.14	89.96	26.86	47.51	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	22.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	25.00	-	-	-	-	-	56.00	-
Announcement Date	2/14/20	8/4/20	2/12/21	8/3/21	10/28/21	2/15/22	4/28/22	8/2/22	8/2/22	10/25/22	2/14/23	4/27/23	8/1/23	8/1/23	10/25/23	2/14/24	2/14/24	4/26/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	34,459	36,893	40,285	38,975	54,806	70,331	103,075	123,217
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	16,868	9,101	19,281	10,789	29,045	30,930	35,923	40,999
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	4.3%	2.1%	3.1%	3.5%	7.9%	8.64%	8.76%	8.68%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.79%	2.74%	2.91%	3.45%	5.84%	5.3%	4.6%	5.33%
Assets ¹	365,717	254,248	357,176	358,676	516,892	659,723	798,320	725,856
Book Value Per Share ²	1,505	1,520	1,610	1,743	1,943	2,071	2,191	2,337
Cash Flow per Share ²	235.0	204.0	231.0	248.0	342.0	396.0	397.0	419.0
Capex ¹	41,012	38,056	43,625	41,447	44,644	48,400	44,889	45,148
Capex / Sales	3.86%	3.75%	4.14%	3.85%	3.8%	3.88%	3.54%	3.5%
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/12/21	2/15/22	2/14/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

D-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

3,902 JPY

Average target price

4,464 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+14.41%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Bread & Bakery Product Manufacturing

	1st Jan change	Capi.
YAMAZAKI BAKING CO., LTD.	+21.33%	5.02B
GRUPO BIMBO, S.A.B. DE C.V.	-19.81%	17.6B
LOTUS BAKERIES NV	+14.46%	8.16B
FLOWERS FOODS, INC.	+9.37%	5.2B
ARYZTA AG	+10.70%	1.86B
TOLY BREAD CO.,LTD.	-21.93%	1.32B
LIGAO FOODS CO.,LTD.	-32.26%	769M
GANSO CO., LTD.	-9.16%	548M
EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES COMPANY (S.A.E)	-6.96%	424M
PREMIER GROUP LIMITED	-5.68%	407M

Bread & Bakery Product Manufacturing