Strategy briefing
Peter Beaven
Chief Financial Officer
22 May 2019
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements which may include: trends in commodity prices and currency exchange rates; demand for commodities; plans; strategies and objectives of management; closure or divestment of certain operations or facilities (including associated costs); anticipated production or construction commencement dates; capital costs and scheduling; productivity gains; cost reductions; operating costs and shortages of materials and skilled employees; anticipated productive lives of projects, mines and facilities; provisions and contingent liabilities; tax and regulatory developments.
Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of terminology such as 'intend', 'aim', 'project', 'anticipate', 'estimate', 'plan', 'believe', 'expect', 'may', 'should', 'will', 'continue', 'annualised' or similar words. These statements discuss future expectations concerning the results of operations or financial condition, or provide other forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are not guarantees or predictions of future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control, and which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in this presentation. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
For example, future revenues from our operations, projects or mines described in this presentation will be based, in part, upon the market price of the minerals, metals or petroleum produced, which may vary significantly from current levels. These variations, if materially adverse, may affect the timing or the feasibility of the development of a particular project, the expansion of certain facilities or mines, or the continuation of existing operations.
Other factors that may affect the actual construction or production commencement dates, costs or production output and anticipated lives of operations, mines or facilities include our ability to profitably produce and transport the minerals, petroleum and/or metals extracted to applicable markets; the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on the market prices of the minerals, petroleum or metals we produce; activities of government authorities in some of the countries where we are exploring or developing these projects, facilities or mines, including increases in taxes, changes in environmental and other regulations and political uncertainty; labour unrest; and other factors identified in the risk factors discussed in BHP's filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the 'SEC') (including in Annual Reports on Form 20-F) which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.
Except as required by applicable regulations or by law, the Group does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
Non-IFRS and other financial information
BHP results are reported under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). This presentation may also include certain non-IFRS (also referred to as alternate performance measures) and other measures including Underlying attributable profit, Underlying EBITDA (all references to EBITDA refer to Underlying EBITDA), Underlying EBIT, Adjusted effective tax rate, Controllable cash costs, Free cash flow, Gearing ratio, Net debt, Net operating assets, Operating assets free cash flow, Principal factors that affect Underlying EBITDA, Underlying basic earnings/(loss) per share, Underlying EBITDA margin and Underlying return on capital employed (ROCE) (all references to return on capital employed refer to Underlying return on capital employed), Underlying return on invested capital (ROIC). These measures are used internally by management to assess the performance of our business and segments, make decisions on the allocation of our resources and assess operational management. Non-IFRS and other measures have not been subject to audit or review and should not be considered as an indication of or alternative to an IFRS measure of profitability, financial performance or liquidity.
Presentation of data
Unless specified otherwise: value represents BHP share of risked discounted cash flows at consensus prices; copper equivalent production based on 2018 financial year average realised prices (as published in BHP's Results for the year ended 30 June 2018 on 21 August 2018); data from subsidiaries are shown on a 100 per cent basis and data from equity accounted investments and other operations are presented reflecting BHP's share; medium term refers to our five year plan. Queensland Coal comprises the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) asset, jointly operated with Mitsubishi, and the BHP Billiton Mitsui Coal (BMC) asset, operated by BHP. Numbers presented may not add up precisely to the totals provided due to rounding. References to disciplined supply refer to lower levels of investment across the industry. All footnote content contained on slide 34.
No offer of securities
Nothing in this presentation should be construed as either an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell BHP securities in any jurisdiction, or be treated or relied upon as a recommendation or advice by BHP.
Reliance on third party information
The views expressed in this presentation contain information that has been derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP.
BHP and its subsidiaries
In this presentation, the terms 'BHP', 'Group', 'BHP Group', 'we', 'us', 'our' and 'ourselves' are used to refer to BHP Group Limited, BHP Group Plc and, except where the context otherwise requires, their respective subsidiaries set out in note 13
'Related undertaking of the Group' in section 5.2 of BHP's Annual Report on Form 20-F. Notwithstanding that this presentation may include production, financial and other information from non-operated assets, non-operated assets are not included in the BHP Group and, as a result, statements regarding our operations, assets and values apply only to our operated assets unless otherwise stated.
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 2 |
Key messages
Our strategy identifies how to position the portfolio to maximise long-term value and deliver high returns for shareholders
Our strategy
Scenario analysis
Portfolio
Capital
allocation
Decision
points
- To have the best capabilities, best commodities and best assets, to createlong-term value and high returns
- Transformation, capital discipline and social value enable the successful execution of our strategy
- Our investment decisions are measured in decades, solong-term strategic foresight is required
- Divergent scenario analysis reveals a range of strategic themes for us to consider
- Generates signposts to monitor, to facilitate timely decisions and risk management
- Assets and options tested against strategic themes to help navigate future uncertainty
- Investment in capabilities required to outperform in the future
- Build a suite of options with different risk, return and optionality attributes
- Strong balance sheet and strict Capital Allocation Framework enable investments in the right commodities and assets, at the right time
- Investments must compete for capital against further returns to shareholders
- Conventional oil, copper and nickel sulphides are attractive; energy coal is challenged; potash is a valuablelong-term option
BHP's investment proposition: maximise cash flow; maintain capital discipline; increase value and returns | |
Strategy briefing | |
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Our strategy to maximise value and returns
To have industry-leading capabilities applied to a portfolio of world-class assets in the most attractive commodities
Culture and capabilities that enable the execution of our business strategy
- Market intelligence
- Access, discovery and appraisal
- Value conversion in operations and marketing
Best
culture and capabilities
Best
commodities
Value and
returns
Highly attractive commodities, matched
to our capabilities
- Attractive supply / demand fundamentals
- Large market sizes
- Steep cost curves
- Upstream value chains
- Differentiated demand drivers
World class assets, uniquely suited to our capabilities
Best
assets
- Large
- Long-life
- Upstream
- High-margin
- Expandable
Driven by a commitment to transformation, capital discipline and social value | |
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We are deliberate about the commodities we choose
Focused on holistic long-term value creation potential, informed by supply/demand balance - not just demand outlook
Favourable supply and demand gap | Large market sizes | |||||
Favour commodities where inducement economics, rather | ||||||||||||||||||
than operating costs, set the price more often than not | Enables future growth options in our assets | |||||||||||||||||
Differentiated demand drivers | Value creation and return potential | |||||||||||||||||
Reduced portfolio cash flow volatility | ||||||||||||||
Enables counter-cyclical investment | Steep cost curves | |||||||||||||
Reduced risk of disruption in end-use markets | Value in upstream | |||||||||||||
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We seek long-life assets with embedded optionality
Creating and exercising embedded options is critical to maximising value
Escondida
Huge resource potential realised through new technologies and exercising embedded expansion options
Asset returns1 | Production and resources | ||||||||||
(annualised, %) | (Mt, 100% basis) | ||||||||||
~25% | 180 | Cumulative production | Contained Cu Resource (recovery factor not applied) | Capital investment | |||||||
90 | |||||||||||
S&P Index | |||||||||||
30-year average | Original plan | ||||||||||
0 | 320 ktpa | ||||||||||
Original | Actual | FY00 | FY02 | FY04 | FY06 | FY08 | FY10 | FY12 | FY14 | FY16 | FY18 |
expected |
Gulf of Mexico
Additional contingent resources unlocked through advanced seismic imaging and robust technical work
Asset returns1
(annualised, %)
~22% | |
S&P Index | |
15-year average | |
Original | Actual |
expected |
Production, reserves and resources
(MMboe, net) 1,200
Cumulative production | 2P Reserves² | 2C Resources² | Capital investment | ||
600
0 | ||||||||||||||
FY04 | FY05 | FY06 | FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | FY11 | FY12 | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 |
Fully developing a great resource takes decades… therefore we must think in decades
Source: Refer to detailed tables for Mineral Resources for Escondida (100% basis) in the Appendix, slide 33. Gulf of Mexico refers to Atlantis, Mad Dog and Shenzi.
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Our capabilities enable the execution of our strategy
Emphasis on culture and core capabilities to drive competitive advantage
Market intelligence
- Early identification of new opportunities
- Deep market foresight
- Understanding of changing dynamics in jurisdictions around the world
Access, discovery
and appraisal
- Gaining access to new resources by being partner of choice
- Outstanding geological knowledge and exploration capabilities
- Competitive advantage in appraising resources, once discovered
Value conversion in
operations and marketing
- Executing projects on time and budget, at leading capital intensity
- Operating excellence and continuous improvement through our transformation agenda
- Value creation through customer focused marketing
Enabled by transformation, capital discipline and social value
Transformation
- Redesign the way we work
- Accelerate our work on culture and capabilities
- Strategic and innovative partnerships with stakeholders
Strategy briefing 22 May 2019
Capital Allocation Framework
- Transparent framework promotes accountability and discipline
- Balances value creation, cash returns to shareholders and balance sheet strength
- Drives competition for capital
7
Social value
- Protecting our licence to operate by meeting commitments to our workforce, partners, communities and governments
- Buildinglong-term societal value through deep and authentic relationships with local, regional and global stakeholders
The external environment is changing rapidly
Our world is in constant flux and levels of uncertainty are high
Unsustainable | Dramatic change in | Rise of emerging | ||
land and water use | the energy system | markets | ||
23%
of land areas have seen a reduction in
productivity due to degradation3
Bio-diversity loss
~1 million
species threatened with extinction (¼ of all known varieties); extinction rate has accelerated one-hundred fold6
Note: IEA: International Energy Agency.
Strategy briefing 22 May 2019
Up ~3x | 70% | |
IEA's forecast for solar power generation | think China plays a more important role | |
in 2035 since 20114 | in the world today versus 10 years ago5 | |
Swift technological | Heightened degree of | |
progress | policy uncertainty | |
85% | 93% | |
reduction in average EV battery pack | increase in volatility of global policy | |
costs since 20107 | uncertainty 2011-2019 vs 2002-20108 | |
8
We have responded: our portfolio is in great shape today
We have reshaped our portfolio through the demerger of South32 and US$18 billion of divestments9
Large assets
~70%
FY13Current
Average Cu Eq resource size per minerals asset
Simple
30
13
FY13Current
Operated assets
Long-life
>80%
~50%
FY13Current
Proportion of minerals assets with 'Life of Asset' planning >50 years
Diversified
CoalPetroleum
Copper
Iron Ore
H1 FY19 EBITDA contribution10
Low-costUpstream
~2x
>30%
FY13 | Current | FY13 | Current | ||
Cu Eq unit costs of current portfolio | EBITDA margins at FY18 average | ||||
realised prices |
ExpandableLow-risk
Non-OECD
~$15bn~$14bn
Exploration | Future options | OECD | ||
Average ~17% IRR | ||||
Unrisked NPV (US$)11 | FY18 EBITDA proportion in OECD countries | |||
Note: Average Cu Eq resource size per minerals asset resource base (equity share basis) is converted to copper equivalent tonnes using FY18 prices; metal resources converted on a contained metal basis; refer to disclaimer on slide 29 and detailed tables for Mineral Resources in the Appendix, slides 30 to 32.
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Navigating future uncertainty through scenario analysis
Our approach allows us to test the resilience of our portfolio and to optimise it for the long term
We consider durable and emerging trends
Which could lead to extreme, but plausible divergent future scenarios
Deepening global divide in
We derive and test strategic
themes, for example:
Outcomes of hypothesis testing inform how we test and shape our portfolio
Inequality in and between
nations
Resource availability
Non-linear
climate impacts
Strategy briefing 22 May 2019
international relations,
decentralised governance
structures
Socio-political instability,
permanent loss of trust, intensified
by inequality and technological
displacement of jobs
Climate change threats and
resource scarcity drive profound disruption in energy and materials
A major climate change event leads to a global policy response that drives dramatic emission reduction focus
Electrification of transport
Licence to operate
Decarbonisation of stationary power
Biosphere: water stewardship and food (in)security
Circular economy
10
Commodity
entries / exits
Asset
acquisitions /
disposals
Development of
core strategic
capabilities
Competitive portfolio of options and assets
We monitor and test strategic themes
Extreme, but plausible, scenarios used as bookends to test the portfolio and identify future opportunities and risks
Electrification of transport
Electric Vehicles (EVs) progressively displace the internal combustion engine (ICE) as cost, range and charging constraints are overcome
Licence to operate
Developed countries restrict
expansion; government intervention
into access of resources and automation implementation
Circular economy
The reuse, reduction, repurposing and recycling of existing materials; a closed loop for the value chain that minimises the need for primary extraction
Decarbonisation of stationary power | Biosphere |
Accelerated social and political push to achieve | Heightened focus on water stewardship and food |
zero emissions from stationary power to contain | security amidst climate change impacts and intense |
global warming to well below 2 degrees | competition for land, marine and freshwater resources |
Note: Themes are not mutually exclusive or exhaustive, outcomes from one theme could impact our view on severity, timeframes, or strategic considerations for other themes.
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Well positioned to mitigate impacts and create value
Understanding the signposts allows us to identify common no-regret actions and future decision points
Value
Electrification of transport
- Policy support (e.g.pro-EV & anti-ICE)
- Cost competitiveness of EVs
- Infrastructure charging speed and availability
Decarbonisation of stationary power
- Early retirement ofnon-renewable resources
- Standalone renewable cost competitiveness
- Grid flexibility solutions become economic
Biosphere
•Globally coordinated regulatory intervention to resolve land and water competition
- Food security threatened12
- Steep disincentive pricing13
Licence to operate
- Decline in trust between governments, citizens and corporations
- Fluid policy environment at the global, national, regional and sectoral levels
Circular economy
- Policy changes (i.e. imported waste bans)
- Emergence of cost competitive substitutes forsingle-use plastics
- Breakthrough in household recycling
- Consumers reject unsustainable options
Time
Note: Represents possible impact on our portfolio if no action is taken to mitigate against risks or seize opportunities. Themes are not mutually exclusive or exhaustive, outcomes from one theme could impact our view on severity, timeframes, or strategic considerations for other themes.
Strategy briefing | |
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Implications for strategy: Electrification of transport
Portfolio advantaged through exposures in copper and nickel with further options available to take advantage of the trend
Commodities | Assets | Capabilities | ||||||
- Nickel:major driver for Class I demand; scarce sulphide resource, inducing higher-capex,lower-grade laterites
- Copper:significantly more demand required for EVs to induce high-cost supply
- Oil:headwinds, but supply expected to decline faster than demand, maintaining inducement economics
- Lithium:support, but abundance of resource allows supply to keep pace at relatively low cost
- Cobalt:support, but to lose share in battery chemistry to nickel
- Strong environment for development and expansion of copper assets (e.g. Olympic Dam, Resolution)
- Copper assets innon-OECD countries likely to be required to meet demand
- Increased attractiveness of nickel options as nickel sulphides likely to be scarce
- Conventional oil assets to remain attractive for several decades
- Opportunities to lower our carbon footprint and operating cost as heavy duty EVs become more competitive
- Block caving skills in copper to become a required skill set
- Technology breakthroughs to unlock low grade copper resource in mature assets
- Exploration and development capabilities in nickel sulphides a strategic enabler
- Exploration and development capabilities in conventional oil to remain a required skill set
- Resource access in new jurisdictions vital, enabled by social value and strategic partnerships
Note: Not an exhaustive list for all commodities, assets and capabilities. This represents our initial view to only material impacts on our portfolio.
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Implications for strategy: Licence to operate
Assets already permitted with low geopolitical risk likely to increase in value while new resource harder to develop
Commodities | Assets | |||||
Capabilities
- Iron ore, copper, nickel and metallurgical coal:potentially positive as new projects find approvals difficult to secure
- Potash:positive contributor to more sustainable land use and food security
- Uranium:green energy profile but long-term societal attitudes unclear
- Energy coal:projects difficult to motivate
- Potential for value erosion across value chains for all carbon intensive industries (scope 3 emissions costs)
- All assets with permits already in place are advantaged as new developments take longer and are more expensive
- Strong environment for Jansen option and provides differentiated growth potential
- Energy coal assets are challenged
- Economics of Olympic Dam expansion more (less) attractive based on societal acceptability of nuclear
- Social value becomes a major competitive advantage
- Water stewardship a key enabler
- Identifying the right partners in the right locations will be necessary
- Labour productivity remains vital as costs are subject to upwards pressure
- Tax transparency, high standards of governance, workforce engagement, diversity and inclusion are key enablers
Note: Not an exhaustive list for all commodities, assets and capabilities. This represents our initial view to only material impacts on our portfolio.
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Implications for strategy: Power decarbonisation
Risks associated with carbon-exposed commodities offset by upside to copper and nickel
Commodities
AssetsCapabilities
- Copper:intensive use in renewable power capacity, but low cost power raises aluminium substitution
- Nickel:incremental demand from storage; cheap transmitted electricity to stimulate other uses (e.g. EVs)
- Gas:could be leapfrogged by renewables in the power sector in developing countries
- Uranium:green energy profile but societal attitudes unclear
- Energy coal:phased out, potentially sooner than expected
- Strong environment for development and expansion of copper assets (e.g. Olympic Dam, Resolution), uranium neutral
- Copper assets innon-OECD countries likely to be required to meet demand
- No appetite for growth in energy coal regardless of asset attractiveness
- Gas discoveries attractive if near LNG ullage, but large capital investments and longpay-backs carry more risk
- Block caving skills in copper to become a required skill set
- New resource access in new jurisdictions vital, enabled by social value
- Technology breakthroughs to unlock low grade copper resource
- Exploration and development capabilities in (scarce) nickel sulphides a strategic enabler
- Decarbonisation of our value chain through carbon capture use and storage (CCUS)
Note: Not an exhaustive list for all commodities, assets and capabilities. This represents our initial view to only material impacts on our portfolio.
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Implications for strategy: Biosphere
A positive world for potash and one that favours assets with existing cost effective water stewardship strategies
Commodities
AssetsCapabilities
- Potash:high demand case as food insecurity drives an increased need for potassium
- Hydrocarbons:causal factors in unsustainable land and water use fall out of favour
- Cost curves for many commodities will rise and steepen as the cost of water treatment and water security increases
- Strong environment for Jansen option
- Challenging for energy coal assets
- Conventional oil assets likely to remain attractive but cost will be key
- Escondida and Pampa Norte insulated due to existing water stewardship strategies and could be advantaged if the copper cost curve steepens
- Asset location is an increasingly key strategic consideration for growth options
- Heightened importance on judicious capital allocation, with particular attention to investment time horizons in challenged commodities
- Water stewardship and sustainable operating practices are vital to driving competitive advantage
- Social value creation through investments tackling loss of biodiversity, and othermacro-environmental challenges, takes on increased importance
Note: Not an exhaustive list for all commodities, assets and capabilities. This represents our initial view to only material impacts on our portfolio.
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Implications for strategy: Circular economy
A very challenging environment, with potential growth provided by potash
Commodities | Assets |
Capabilities
- Copper:likely to remain supported by new demand sources, even as recycling increases
- Potash:higher crop residue recycling and declining food waste, but demand growth still highly likely
- Material risk to most commodities, with a combination of redesign, reduction, reuse and recycling all pointing towards lower reliance on primary demand
- Expect some commodities to have less downside risk than others: iron ore vs metallurgical coal; gas vs oil
- Still room for growth in copper, but a transition to lower cost resources will be required
- Jansen an attractive option for differentiated growth
- Gas assets with installed infrastructure (e.g. NWS) likely to be well placed
- A more holistic view of supply may be required, including participating in different parts of the value chain (e.g. primary nickel supply, combined with recycling batteries, to produce precursor)
- Transformation agenda will be key to cost control and efficiency
- Social value critical to secure strategic partnerships withend-users (e.g. auto makers) to manage and participate in lifecycle product chains
- Sustainable supply chain will be important with the support of advanced technological capabilities
Note: Not an exhaustive list for all commodities, assets and capabilities. This represents our initial view to only material impacts on our portfolio.
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Implications for strategy
Positioning our portfolio to seize opportunities as they emerge
Electrification of | Licence to operate | Decarbonisation of | Biosphere | Circular economy | ||||
transport | stationary power | |||||||
Social value credentials, strategic partnerships, market intelligence, resource access and resource development capabilities are all critical
▲Copper and nickel | ▲ Increased value arising | ▼Challenges to carbon- | ▲Potash a valuable growth |
advantaged | from incumbency | exposed commodities | option |
▲Existing growth options | ▼ Energy coal assets look | ▲Offset by tailwinds | ▲Water stewardship a key |
enhanced | challenged | for copper | enabler |
►Oil still attractive, but less | ▲ Social value a competitive | ▲Long dated benefit for | ▼Some commodities seen |
so than base case | advantage | nickel | as "part of the problem" |
- Risk to primary demand in many commodities
- Potential migration of economic profit downstream
- Potash somewhat insulated from overall trend
Conventional oil, copper and nickel sulphides are attractive; energy coal is challenged; potash is a valuable long-term option
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Broad suite of attractive opportunities
Our portfolio is in great shape today but we have more to do
Optionality
In execution
Higher | Orphan Basin | Ecuador and South | South Flank | Atlantis Phase 3 | |
exploration | Australia exploration | ||||
(Iron ore) | (Petroleum) | ||||
return | (Petroleum) | (Copper) | |||
Trion appraisal | Nickel West | Spence Materials | Mad Dog Phase 2 | ||
expansion | Reprocessing | ||||
(Petroleum) | (Petroleum) | ||||
(Nickel) | (Copper) | ||||
Lower return
Resolution | Wards Well |
(Copper) | (Metallurgical coal) |
South Walker Creek | Olympic Dam |
Expansion Project | |
(Metallurgical coal) | |
(Copper) | |
Spence Growth Option | Scarborough |
(Copper) | (Petroleum) |
Jansen Stage 1 | Autonomous Haulage |
Australia | |
(Potash) | |
(Minerals Australia) | |
Higher risk | Lower risk |
Note: Olympic Dam Expansion Project refers to heap leach technology development option. | |
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22 May 2019 | 19 |
Our framework promotes discipline in all capital decisions
Our Capital Allocation Framework is transparent and embeds discipline
OperatingCapital
productivityproductivity
Net operating cash flow
Maintenance capital
Strong balance sheet
Minimum 50% payout ratio dividend
Excess cash flow
Debt | Additional | Buy-backs | Organic | Acquisitions/ |
reduction | dividends | development | divestments | |
Maximise value and returns
>US$25 billioncash returns to shareholders announced since 1 January 2016
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 20 |
Key messages
Our strategy identifies how to position the portfolio to maximise long-term value and deliver high returns for shareholders
Our strategy
Scenario analysis
Portfolio
Capital
allocation
Decision
points
- To have the best capabilities, best commodities and best assets, to createlong-term value and high returns
- Transformation, capital discipline and social value enable the successful execution of our strategy
- Our investment decisions are measured in decades, solong-term strategic foresight is required
- Divergent scenario analysis reveals a range of strategic themes for us to consider
- Generates signposts to monitor, to facilitate timely decisions and risk management
- Assets and options tested against strategic themes to help navigate future uncertainty
- Investment in capabilities required to outperform in the future
- Build a suite of options with different risk, return and optionality attributes
- Strong balance sheet and strict Capital Allocation Framework enable investments in the right commodities and assets, at the right time
- Investments must compete for capital against further returns to shareholders
- Conventional oil, copper and nickel sulphides are attractive; energy coal is challenged; potash is a valuablelong-term option
BHP's investment proposition: maximise cash flow; maintain capital discipline; increase value and returns | |
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 21 |
Appendix
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 23 |
Transformation - delivers significant value
Increase in productivity, reduction in costs and application of technology
Initiatives | Value14 | Timing15 | Capex over | Description | |||
5-years | |||||||
(US$m) | |||||||
- | BHP Operating System: piloted at Port Hedland and Perth Repair Centre | ||||||
WAIO | ~5 years | <800 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage, shiploaders, rail, integrated mine platforms and decision systems | |||
- Latent capacity: supply chain debottlenecking initiatives at the port and rail to increase production sustainably to 290 Mtpa | |||||||
- | BHP Operating System: piloted at Peak Downs and Caval Ridge | ||||||
Queensland Coal | ~5 years | ~1,000 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage, integrated mine platforms and decision systems | |||
- Latent capacity: focused on pre-strip productivity through equipment availability (including better maintenance strategies), utilisation and rate | |||||||
- | BHP Operating System: piloted at Olympic Dam surface operations | ||||||
Olympic Dam | ~10 years | <300 | - | Value Chain Automation: replicate Integrated Remote Operations Centre | |||
- Latent capacity: continued development into the Southern Mine Area to access higher grade ore and refinery debottlenecking | |||||||
- BHP Operating System: piloted at Escondida concentrators | |||||||
Escondida | Various | <200 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage and precision mining | |||
- Latent capacity: debottlenecking and extending infrastructure life | |||||||
- BHP Operating System: piloted at leaching operations | |||||||
Spence | Various | <200 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage, drills and precision mining | |||
- Latent capacity: reprocessing of ripios dumped since the beginning of operations | |||||||
World Class Functions | <5 years | ~300 | - Increased focus on the most important activities and cross-functional ways of working to drive world-class performance across culture, | ||||
effectiveness and efficiency | |||||||
Aggregate | ~US$3 bn | Potential aggregate NPV14in the tens of billions of dollars | |||||
BHP Operating System | |||||||
Value Chain Automation | |||||||
Latent Capacity | |||||||
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 24 |
Future options - worked for value, timed for returns
Investment decisions made in accordance with our Capital Allocation Framework and fully consider the broader market impact
Options | Description | Potential | Capex | Tollgate | IRR14 | Risk16 | Investment considerations | |||
execution | (US$m) | (1-5) | ||||||||
timing | ||||||||||
Ruby | Tie back into existing processing facilities in | <1 year | >250 | Feasibility | >15 | ●● | - | Similar scope to existing tie backs | - | Early life sensitivity to oil price |
Petroleum | Trinidad & Tobago | - | Utilisation of existing facility capacity | |||||||
Mad Dog northwest | Incremental production of existing A-Spar | Non | - | Resilient to price | - | Non-operated JV | ||||
- | Low risk, robust economics | |||||||||
water injection | <5 years | >250 | Pre-feasibility | * | ||||||
production wells in Mad Dog field | Operated | |||||||||
Petroleum | ||||||||||
- | Tier 1 resource | - | Oversupply of LNG driving low price market | |||||||
Scarborough | Tie back development to existing LNG | <5 years | <2,000 | Pre-feasibility | * | Non | - | Ability to process through existing | environment | |
Petroleum | facility | Operated | infrastructure | - | Remote field location, deep water, severe | |||||
metocean conditions | ||||||||||
Olympic Dam BFX17 | Development into the Southern Mine Area, | - | Access to additional resource in Southern | - | Continued resource definition | |||||
debottlenecking of existing surface | <5 years | Up to | Pre-feasibility | 12-25 | ●● | Mine Area | - | Power network instability | ||
Copper | infrastructure to increase production capacity | ~2,500 | - | Accelerated additional production | ||||||
to 240-300 ktpa | ||||||||||
Underground block cave with attractive | - | High copper grades | - | Non-operated JV | ||||||
Resolution | Non | - | Resilient to price | - | Technical risk due to caving at the resource depth | |||||
grade profile and competitive cost curve | >5 years | <3,000 | Concept | ~15 | ||||||
Copper | Operated | and tailings options | ||||||||
position | ||||||||||
- | Permitting requirements | |||||||||
Jansen Stage 118 | Tier 1 resource with potential initial capacity | - | Tier 1 resource, stable jurisdiction | - | Risk of market oversupply | |||||
<5 years | 5,300- | Feasibility | 14-15 | ●●● | - | Operating costs of ~US$100/t (FOB | - | New commodity entry | ||
Potash | of 4.3-4.5 Mtpa, with valuable expansion | 5,700 | Vancouver, excluding royalties) | - | Sensitive to price | |||||
optionality | ||||||||||
- | Unrivalled position of land | - | High capital cost and long payback | |||||||
Jansen Stage 2-418 | - | Long term growth optionality and value | - | Risk of market oversupply | ||||||
Sequenced brownfield expansions of up to | >15 years | ~4,000 | Opportunity | ~20 | ●● | generation | - | Complexities from project size | ||
Potash | 12 Mtpa (4 Mtpa per stage) | per stage | assessment | - | Adds diversification to BHP's portfolio | - | Significant capital requirement | |||
- Further de-risking required | ||||||||||
Aggregate | ~17 | Aggregate unrisked value14of ~US$14 billion spanning commodities and time periods | ||||||||
Note: * Mad Dog northwest water injection and Scarborough IRRs under review with joint venture partners. | ||||||||||
Strategy briefing | ||||||||||
22 May 2019 | 25 |
Exploration - extending our conventional reserve life
Investment decisions made in accordance with our Capital Allocation Framework and fully consider the broader market impact
Options | Location | Ownership | Maturity | Earliest first | Description | Planned future activity |
production | ||||||
Trion | Mexico - Gulf of | 60% | Appraisal | Mid 2020s | Large oil discovery in the Mexican deepwater Gulf of Mexico. | Additional appraisal well approved; expected to spud in |
Petroleum | Mexico | Operator | December 2019 half | |||
Wildling | US - Gulf of Mexico | 80+% | Appraisal | Mid 2020s | Large oil resource across multiple horizons near operated | Complete appraisal to optimise development plan |
Petroleum | Operator | infrastructure in US Gulf of Mexico | ||||
Samurai | US - Gulf of Mexico | 50% | Appraisal | Early 2020s | Oil discovery in the Wildling mini basin | Operator has commenced pre-FEED activities following |
Petroleum | Samurai-2 discovery in 2018 | |||||
Northern Gas | Trinidad and | 70% | Potential material gas play in Deepwater Trinidad, well positioned | Currently drilling to test exploration prospects following the | ||
Exploration | Mid 2020s | recent Bongos-2 success and Bele-1 encountered | ||||
Petroleum | Tobago | Operator | to the Atlantic LNG plant onshore T&T | |||
hydrocarbons | ||||||
Magellan Southern | Trinidad and | 65% | Exploration | Mid 2020s | Potential material gas play in Deepwater Trinidad, well positioned | Rig completed 2 well exploration program in October 2018; |
Gas | Tobago | Operator | to the Atlantic LNG plant onshore T&T | incorporating results | ||
Petroleum | ||||||
Western GOM | 100% | Completed acquisition of Ocean Bottom Node seismic | ||||
US - Gulf of Mexico | Frontier | Early 2030s | Acquired a significant acreage position in Western Gulf of Mexico | 19 | ||
Petroleum | Operator | survey ; process & analyse seismic and incorporate into | ||||
ongoing analysis | ||||||
Trinidad Oil | Trinidad and | 65-70% | Frontier | Late 2020s | Potential oil play in deepwater Trinidad | Geologic analysis ongoing |
Petroleum | Tobago | Operator | ||||
Orphan Basin | Canada | 100% | Frontier | Early 2030s | Recent bid success for blocks with large oil resource potential in | Geologic analysis ongoing |
Petroleum | Operator | the offshore Orphan Basin in Eastern Canada | ||||
Multi-billion barrel equivalent risked potential; unrisked NPV of up to US$15 billion20 | ||||||
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 26 |
Projects in feasibility
Autonomous truck hauling | Ruby | Jansen Stage 1 | |
Australia | Trinidad and Tobago | Saskatchewan, Canada | |
Automating ~500 haul trucks across | Oil and gas development consisting of five | Shaft equipping, mine development, | |
Western Australia Iron Ore and | production wells tied back into existing | processing facility, site infrastructure and | |
Queensland Coal sites | operated processing facilities in Trinidad | outbound logistics. | |
& Tobago. | |||
Operator | BHP | BHP | BHP |
BHP ownership | Various | 68% | 100% |
Capex (US$m) | <800 | ~330 | 5,300 - 5,700 |
Feasibility study phase | |||
Phase / timing | First of several investment decision | Feasibility study phase | Feasibility study phase |
expected in CY19 (capex represents full | Investment decision expected in CY19 | ||
amount) | |||
First production / Project delivery | Staged rollout between CY20 and CY23 | FY22 | ~5 years from sanction to commissioning |
~2 years from first production to ramp up | |||
Volumes (100% basis at peak) | n/a | 16,000 bopd (oil) + 80 MMscf/d (gas) | 4.3 - 4.5Mtpa (Potassium chloride, KCL) |
12.5% royalty | 6% royalty | ||
Other considerations | Site by site decision on roll out | Production entitlements paid in-kind under | Federal and Provincial Corporate income |
PSA | tax and Potash Production Tax21 |
Note: Ruby ownership based on current participating interest per the Joint Operating Agreement. PSA - Production Sharing Agreement.
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 27 |
Statement of Petroleum Resources
Petroleum Resources
The estimates of Petroleum Reserves and Contingent Resources contained in this presentation are based on, and fairly represent, information and supporting documentation prepared under the supervision of Mr. A. G. Gadgil, who is employed by BHP. Mr. Gadgil is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and has the required qualifications and experience to act as a qualified Petroleum Reserves and Resources evaluator under the ASX Listing Rules. This presentation is issued with the prior written consent of Mr. Gadgil who agrees with the form and context in which the Petroleum Reserves and Contingent Resources are presented.
Reserves and Contingent Resources are net of royalties owned by others and have been estimated using deterministic methodology. Aggregates of Reserves and Contingent Resources estimates contained in this presentation have been calculated by arithmetic summation by category. The barrel of oil equivalent conversion is based on 6000 scf of natural gas equals 1 boe. The Reserves contained in this presentation are inclusive of fuel required for operations. The respective amounts of fuel for each category are provided by footnote for the resource graphics. The custody transfer point(s)/point(s) of sale applicable for each field or project are the reference point for Reserves and Contingent Resources. Reserves and Contingent Resources estimates have not been adjusted for risk. Unless noted otherwise, Reserves and Contingent Resources are as of 30 June of the indicated financial year. Where used in this presentation, the term Resources represents the sum of 2P reserves and 2C Contingent Resources.
BHP estimates Proved Reserve volumes according to SEC disclosure regulations and files these in our annual 20-F report with the SEC. All Unproved volumes are estimated using SPE-PRMS 2007 guidelines, which among other things, allow escalations to prices and costs, and as such, would be on a different basis than that prescribed by the SEC, and are therefore excluded from our SEC filings. All Resources and other Unproved volumes may differ from and may not be comparable to the same or similarly-named measures used by other companies. Non-proved estimates are inherently more uncertain than proved.
The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only Proved, Probable and Possible Reserves, and only when such Reserves have been determined in accordance with SEC guidelines. We use certain terms in this presentation such as "Resources," "Contingent Resources," "2C Contingent Resources" and similar terms as well as Probable Reserves not determined in accordance with the SEC's guidelines, all of which measures we are strictly prohibited from including in filings with the SEC. These measures include Reserves and Resources with substantially less certainty than Proved Reserves. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2018, File No. 001-09526 and in our other filings with the SEC, available from us at http://www.bhp.com/. These forms can also be obtained from the SEC as described above.
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 28 |
Mineral Resources and Competent Persons statement
Competent Person Statement
The information in this presentation that relates to the FY2018 and FY2013 Mineral Resources (inclusive of Ore Reserves) were first reported by the Company in compliance with the 'Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves, 2012' ('The JORC Code 2012 Edition') in the 2018 BHP Annual Report and the 2013 BHP Billiton Annual Report respectively. Both reports are available to view on www.bhp.com.
The detailed breakdown of Mineral Resources for all assets are shown in the Annual Reports on 100% basis, with corresponding BHP interest. Compilation of Mineral Resources information from 2013 is included in this presentation to provide a portfolio comparison between these two dates. Divested assets are no longer owned or operated by BHP and the majority of these were demerged into South32 in May 2015. Other divestments are noted in the corresponding BHP Annual Reports.
In relation to the 2018 Mineral Resources, the company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the Mineral Resources information included in the original 2018 market announcement and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed. The company confirms that the form and context in which the Competent Persons' findings are presented have not been materially modified from the original market announcement.
The information in this presentation that relates to Mineral or Coal Resources is based on information compiled by: L Moharana (MAusIMM) for Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) and Divested assets (Alumar including MRN, Worsley, GEMCO, Hotazel); R Macpherson (MAIG) for Minerals Australia Energy Coal, Metallurgical Coal - Operations and Projects including Queensland CQCA-JV, Gregory JV (divested on 27 March 2019; available on www.bhp.com) and BHP Mitsui Coal and Projects and Divested assets (Illawarra Coal and BECSA); M Menicheli (MAusIMM) for Nickel West Operations and Nickel Colombia (Cerro Matoso); D Clarke (MAusIMM) for Olympic Dam; M Williams (MAusIMM) for Escondida District, Pampa Norte, Antamina, Pinto Valley, Cerrejón, New Mexico Coal, Samarco; J McElroy (MAusIMM) for Minerals Americas Jansen Project and M Furness (MAusIMM) for Cannington.
All of the people listed above are full-time employees of BHP and have sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which they are undertaking to qualify as Competent Persons as defined in the 2012 Edition of the 'Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves' and consent to the inclusion in the presentation of the matters based on this information in the form and context in which it appears.
Resources and metal equivalent calculations
Please refer to detailed tables in the Appendix, slides 30 to 33, for Mineral Resource classifications (100% basis) for each asset / deposit included in the average copper equivalent resource size per minerals asset calculations on slide 9 of this presentation.
Resource base (equity share basis) is converted to copper equivalent tonnes using FY2018 average realised prices as reported in the BHP results for the year ended 30 June 2018 for Metallurgical Coal, Energy Coal, Iron Ore, Copper and Nickel. The conversion of U3O8, Au, Ag and Zn use prices as reported in the BHP 2018 US Securities and Exchange Commission Form 20-F. Potash price used is US$233/t, Molybdenum US$7.11/lb, Lead US$0.87/lb, Aluminium US$2,132.98/t and Manganese Ore US$198.32/t.
The reporting of Mineral Resources for polymetallic deposits in terms of metal equivalents (a single equivalent grade of one major metal) is based on FY2018 average realised prices as reported in the BHP results for the year ended 30 June 2018 for Cu and for other metals the BHP 2013 and 2018 Form 20-F submissions (unless otherwise stated). The metallurgical recoveries applied are those footnoted for the respective operations as footnoted in the corresponding Annual Reports from 2013 and 2018. It is the company's opinion that all elements included in the metal equivalent calculation have a reasonable potential to be recovered and sold. No mining or metallurgical modifying factors were applied to the results. The following copper equivalent grade calculations are listed below.
2013 calculations
Olympic Dam: CuEq = Cu % + (U3O8 kg/t x 1.064) + (Au g/t x 0.459) + (Ag g/t x 0.0089); Spence: CuEq = Cu % + (Mo % x 3.039); Antamina Sulphide Cu-only: CuEq = Cu % + (Mo % x 2.048) + (Ag g/t x 0.0097); Antamina Sulphide Cu-Zn: CuEq =
Cu % + (Zn % x 0.45) + (Ag g/t x 0.0096); Cannington: PbEq = Pb % + (Ag g/t x 0.043) + (Zn % x 0.95), Molybdenum price used is US$11.18/lb.
2018 calculations
Olympic Dam: CuEq = Cu % + (U3O8 kg/t x 0.709) + (Au g/t x 0.407) + (Ag g/t x 0.0059); Escondida: CuEq = Cu % + (Au g/t x 0.575); Spence: CuEq = Cu % + (Mo % x 2.294); Antamina Sulphide Cu-only: CuEq = Cu % + (Mo % x 1.546) + (Ag g/t x
0.0065); Antamina Sulphide Cu-Zn: CuEq = Cu % + (Zn % x 0.33) + (Ag g/t x 0.0064).
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 29 |
Mineral Resources (100% basis)
Commodity | Financial year | Measured Resources (Mt) | Indicated Resources (Mt) | Inferred Resources (Mt) | BHP interest |
Deposit | % | ||||
Minerals Australia | |||||
Iron Ore | |||||
WAIO | 2018 | 2,750 | 6,500 | 20,020 | 88 |
2013 | 2,550 | 4,210 | 14,560 | 88 | |
Energy Coal | |||||
Operations - Mt Arthur Coal | 2018 | 875 | 1,299 | 1,019 | 100 |
2013 | 887 | 2,169 | 670 | 100 | |
Projects - Togara South | 2018 | 719 | 177 | 1,051 | 100 |
2013 | 719 | 177 | 1,051 | 100 | |
Metallurgical Coal - Operations | |||||
Queensland CQCA-JV | 2018 | 3,844 | 2,481 | 2,198 | 50 |
2013 | 2,561 | 2,882 | 2,353 | 50 | |
Gregory JV | 2018 | 7.9 | 112.7 | 0.3 | 50 |
2013 | 7.9 | 130.7 | 0.3 | 50 | |
BHP Mitsui Coal | 2018 | 310 | 328 | 239 | 80 |
2013 | 258 | 347 | 233 | 80 | |
Metallurgical Coal - Projects | |||||
Queensland CQCA-JV | 2018 | 509 | 1,872 | 1,089 | 50 |
2013 | 273 | 1,476 | 1,398 | 50 | |
Gregory JV | 2018 | 5.6 | - | - | 50 |
2013 | 5.6 | - | - | 50 | |
BHP Mitsui Coal | 2018 | - | 1,233 | 176 | 80 |
2013 | - | 1,457 | 154 | 80 | |
Copper | |||||
Olympic Dam | 2018 | 3,515@0.83%Cu, 0.26kg/tonne U3O8, 0.37g/t Au, 1g/t Ag | 3,292@0.69%Cu, 0.22kg/tonne U3O8, 0.29g/t Au,1g/t Ag | 3,920@0.67% Cu,0.22kg/tonne U3O8,0.26g/t Au,1g/t Ag | 100 |
2013 | 1,543@0.97%Cu, 0.29kg/tonne U3O8, 0.37g/t Au, 2g/t Ag | 5,095@0.80% Cu,0.26kg/tonne U3O8,0.36g/t Au, 1g/t Ag | 3,296@0.69% Cu,0.23kg/tonne U3O8,0.25g/t Au,1g/t Ag | 100 | |
Nickel | |||||
Nickel West Operations | 2018 | 175@0.71%Ni | 160@0.64%Ni | 209@0.67% Ni | 100 |
2013 | 214@0.61%Ni | 186@0.61%Ni | 150@0.59% Ni | 100 | |
Nickel West Projects | 2018 | 156@0.59%Ni | 113@0.63%Ni | 209@0.67% Ni | 100* |
2013 | 156@0.60%Ni | 114@0.60%Ni | 203@0.66% Ni | 100* | |
* Projects comprise Venus, Yakabindie with 100% BHP interest and Jericho 50% BHP interest. | |||||
Strategy briefing | |||||
22 May 2019 | 30 |
Mineral Resources (100% basis)
Commodity | Financial year | Measured Resources (Mt) | Indicated Resources (Mt) | Inferred Resources (Mt) | BHP interest |
Deposit | % | ||||
Mineral Americas | |||||
Copper | |||||
Escondida District | 2018 | 5,779@0.61% TCu | 5,050@0.52% TCu | 16,573@0.49 TCu | 57.5 |
2013 | 5,785@0.67% TCu | 3,542@0.54% TCu | 12,930@0.47% TCu | 57.5 | |
Pampa Norte | 2018 | 921@0.52% TCu | 1,189@0.48% TCu | 2,565@0.37% TCu | 100 |
2013 | 593@0.63% TCu | 1,386@0.49% TCu | 1,275@0.40% TCu | 100 | |
Pinto Valley | 2018 | 174@0.31% TCu | 40@0.32% TCu | 100 | |
2013 | 350@0.32% TCu | 617@0.31% TCu | 191@0.26% TCu | 100 | |
Antamina | 2018 | 242@0.88% Cu,0.75% Zn,11g/t Ag,235 ppm Mo | 804@0.90% Cu,0.75% Zn,12g/t Ag,201 ppm Mo | 1,372@0.90% Cu,0.55% Zn,10g/t Ag,201 ppm Mo | 33.75 |
2013 | 183@0.77% Cu,0.60% Zn,10g/t Ag,238 ppm Mo | 943@0.92% Cu,0.66% Zn,11g/t Ag,208ppm Mo | 860@0.82% Cu,0.39% Zn,11g/t Ag,173 ppm Mo | 33.75 | |
Potash | |||||
Jansen Project | 2018 | 5,170@25.7% K2O | 1,270@25.7% K2O | 100 | |
2013 | 5,328@25.7% K2O | 1,288@25.7% K2O | 100 | ||
Energy Coal | |||||
Cerrejon | 2018 | 2,849 | 975 | 709 | 33.33 |
2013 | 2,924 | 989 | 695 | 33.33 | |
Iron Ore | |||||
Samarco | 2018 | 3,340 | 2,150 | 950 | 50 |
2013 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 2,000 | 50 | |
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 31 |
Mineral Resources (100% basis)
Commodity | Financial year | Measured Resources (Mt) | Indicated Resources (Mt) | Inferred Resources (Mt) | BHP interest | |
Deposit | % | |||||
Divested assets | ||||||
Metallurgical Coal | ||||||
Illawarra Coal | 2013 | 278 | 455 | 586 | 100 | |
Nickel | ||||||
Nickel Colombia | 2013 | 115@1.04% Ni | 186@0.9% Ni | 90@0.8% Ni | 99.94 | |
Energy Coal | ||||||
New Mexico Coal | 2013 | 779 | 265 | 10 | 100 | |
BECSA | 2013 | 2,572 | 838 | 2,023 | 90 | |
Silver Lead Zinc | ||||||
Cannington | 2013 | 68@186g/t Ag,5.35% Pb,3.26% Zn | 18@122g/t Ag,3.94% Pb,2.56% Zn | 10@86g/t Ag,3.25% Pb,1.80% Zn | 100 | |
Aluminium | ||||||
Worsley | 2013 | 339 | 584 | 50 | 86 | |
Alumar (MRN) | 2013 | 328 | 81 | 999 | 14.8 | |
GAC Project | 2013 | 87 | 113 | 327 | 33.3 | |
Manganese | ||||||
GEMCO | 2013 | 85@46.5% Mn | 68@40.0% Mn | 37.3@41.8% Mn | 60 | |
Hotazel | 2013 | 74.4@37.2% Mn | 181.9@39.9% Mn | 4.3@34.5% Mn | 44.4 | |
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 32 |
Mineral Resources (100% basis)
Commodity | Financial year | Measured Resources (Mt) | Indicated Resources (Mt) | Inferred Resources (Mt) | BHP interest |
Deposit | % | ||||
Mineral Americas | |||||
Copper | |||||
Escondida deposit | 2018 | 5,376@0.61% TCu | 3,674@0.51% TCu | 10,437@0.52% TCu | 57.5 |
2017 | 5,524@0.63% TCu | 3,675@0.57% TCu | 9,649@0.51% TCu | 57.5 | |
2016 | 5,645@0.64% TCu | 3,409@0.51% TCu | 11,296@0.52% TCu | 57.5 | |
2015 | 5,872@0.64% TCu | 3,229@0.50% TCu | 10,085@0.50% TCu | 57.5 | |
2014 | 5,351@0.65% TCu | 2,689@0.52% TCu | 10,311@0.51% TCu | 57.5 | |
2013 | 5,382@0.68% TCu | 2,166@0.54% TCu | 6,794@0.51% TCu | 57.5 | |
2012 | 4,056@0.72% TCu | 3,213@0.56% TCu | 6,645@0.50% TCu | 57.5 | |
2011 | 3,089@0.75% TCu | 3,036@0.58% TCu | 5,824@0.53% TCu | 57.5 | |
2010 | 1,998@0.78% TCu | 3,137@0.62% TCu | 3,374@0.50% TCu | 57.5 | |
2009 | 1,786@0.82% TCu | 3,206@0.67% TCu | 3,921@0.53% TCu | 57.5 | |
2008 | 1,819@0.84% TCu | 2,984@0.70% TCu | 4,233@0.53% TCu | 57.5 | |
2007 | 1,513@0.89% TCu | 3,371@0.71% TCu | 3,767@0.54% TCu | 57.5 | |
2006 | 1,484@0.88% TCu | 3,489@0.72% TCu | 4,892@0.54% TCu | 57.5 | |
2005 | 1,605@1.00% TCu | 3,372@0.73% TCu | 5,111@0.54% TCu | 57.5 | |
2004 | 1,710@1.02% TCu | 3,393@0.72% TCu | 5,114@0.54% TCu | 57.5 | |
2003 | 1,333@1.13% TCu | 2,720@0.85% TCu | 1,979@0.67% TCu | 57.5 | |
2002 | 1,377@1.15% TCu | 2,737@0.85% TCu | 2,002@0.67% TCu | 57.5 | |
2001 | 1,422@1.09% TCu | 2,224@1.02% TCu | 1,772@0.80% TCu | 57.5 | |
2000 | 1,212@1.25% TCu | 1,794@0.99% TCu | 1,274@0.80% TCu | 57.5 | |
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 33 |
Footnotes
- Slide 6: IRR (real) on a risked basis. Indicative internal analysis. Source: Thomson Reuters, BHP. Market indices reflected with Total Shareholder Return (TSR).
- Slide 6: Reserves/Contingent Resources at 30 June 2018: 1P: 303 MMboe (10 MMboe fuel); 2P: 431 MMboe (13 MMboe fuel); 2C: 346 MMboe.
- Slide 8: Unsustainable land and water use per the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and ecosystem services performed by the IntergovernmentalScience-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
- Slide 8: Source: International Energy Agency.
- Slide 8: Source: PEW Research Centre (https://www.pewglobal.org/).
- Slide 8: Source: IPBES(https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/tca-ind050519.php).
- Slide 8: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
- Slide 8: 93% refers to the increase in the monthly standard deviation of the global economic policy uncertainty index,PPP-weighted, for 2011-2019YTD versus 2002-2010. Source: (www.policyuncertainty.com).
- Slide 9: Divestments: announced or completed from FY13 onwards.
- Slide 9: Segment EBITDA: percentage contribution to Group Underlying EBITDA, excluding Group and unallocated items.
- Slide 9: Unrisked NPV and IRRs: as presented at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Metals and Mining Steel Conference on the 14 May 2019.
- Slide 12: Food security threatened by land degradation, water quality and availability, climate change impacts.
- Slide 12: Steep disincentive pricing (e.g. carbon price, taxes onnon-sustainable forestry, nitrogen fertiliser run-off).
- Slide 24, 25: Returns (IRR) and value (NPV): Calculated at 2019 analyst consensus price forecasts (except Potash which are at CRU and Integer (Argus Media) price forecasts); ungeared,post-tax, nominal rates.
- Slide 24: Timing: Representsramp-up to steady state.
- Slide 25: Risk: Based on a BHP assessment of each project against defined quantified andnon-quantified risk metrics rated out of 5; 5 represents more risk.
- Slide 25: Olympic Dam: IRR of12-25% represents different development options of varying levels of certainty. The upper end of range relates to investment in a potential lower capital and production development towards BFX.
- Slide 25: Jansen: Based on CRU and Integer (Argus Media) price assumptions(2025-2035 average mid-case: CRU US$325/t and Integer (Argus Media) US$342/t, rebased). Jansen Stage 1 IRR of 14-15% reflects capex range and excludes remaining funded investment of ~US$0.3 billion for completion of the shafts and installation of essential service infrastructure and utilities. Jansen Stages 2-4 capex is presented in real terms (July 2019) - those options would be brownfield and predominately require surface infrastructure, with shorter construction schedules and less risk than Stage 1. The execution of future stages would be subject to our review of supply and demand fundamentals and successful competition for capital under our Capital Allocation Framework. However, we expect that each subsequent expansion would be approved for development after the previous expansion had reached 3 to 4 years of full production. The existing shafts are capable of supporting production for Stages 2-4.
- Slide 26: WGOM OBN 2018 Seismic Permit is OCS PermitT18-010.
- Slide 26: Petroleum exploration and appraisal NPV: Unrisked values at BHPlong-term price forecasts.
- Slide 27: Below are tax consideration for Jansen Stage 1 project. Withholding tax on dividend payments under the current corporate structure is 5%.
- Royalties: 6% of mine gate revenue (revenue less port and rail costs)
- Federal and Provincial Corporate Income taxes: Combined top rate 27% (Carried forward losses frompre-production years can be utilised to decrease future taxable profits)
- Potash Production Tax (PPT), two components.
- Both components are calculated based on K2O tonnes. Thus potassium chloride (KCL) needs to be converted to potassium oxide (K2O), with a conversion rate of 0.6.
- A base payment levied at a rate of 35% on the producer's annual resource profits, subject to minimum payment of CAD$11.00 and a maximum of CAD$12.33 per K2O tonne sold. New producers may qualify for a base payment holiday for the first 10 years of production.
- A profit tax imposed on the producer's gross annual profit tax that is determined by rates, which increase with profits per tonne sold, as follows: 15% of the profit per tonne below CAD $66.95 and 35% of the profit per tonne above CAD $66.95 (tax brackets are indexed for inflation). Profit tax is assessed on a maximum of 35% of total tonnes sold, but producers may claim a base payment credit with respect to amount of tonnes that are subject to both the base payment and the profit tax. There are no tax holidays available for the profit tax.
Strategy briefing | |
22 May 2019 | 34 |
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BHP Billiton plc published this content on 22 May 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 22 May 2019 21:27:06 UTC