ITAÚ UNIBANCO HOLDING S.A. 2Q19
Macroeconomic Outlook
2Q19
This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding Itaú Unibanco Holding, its subsidiaries and affiliates - anticipated synergies, growth plans, projected results and future strategies. Although these forward-looking statements reflect management's good faith beliefs, they involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause the Company's actual results or outcomes to be materially different from those anticipated and discussed herein. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to our ability to realize the amount of the projected synergies and the timetable projected, as well as economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors affecting Itaú Unibanco Holding's operations, markets, products and prices, and other factors detailed in Itaú Unibanco Holding's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission which readers are urged to read carefully in assessing the forward-looking statements contained herein. Itaú Unibanco Holding undertakes in duty to update any of the projections contained herein. This presentation contains managerial numbers that may be different from those presented in our financial statements. The calculation methodology for those managerial numbers is presented in Itaú Unibanco Holding's quarterly earnings report. To obtain further information on factors that may give rise to results different from those forecast by Itaú Unibanco Holding, please consult the reports filed with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários - CVM) and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including Itaú Unibanco Holding's most recent Annual Report on Form 20F.
Brazilian Economy and Banking Sector
As of August 27, 2019
Macroeconomic Outlook 1
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 ² | 2020 ² | |
World Economy | ||||||||
GDP - World | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
GDP - USA | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
GDP - Euro Zone | -0.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
GDP - China | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% |
Brazilian Economy | ||||||||
GDP - Brazil | 3.0% | 0.5% | -3.5% | -3.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
Interest Rate(End of Period SELIC) | 10.00% | 11.75% | 14.25% | 13.75% | 7.00% | 6.50% | 5.00% | 5.00% |
Interest Rate(Annual Average SELIC) | 8.44% | 11.02% | 13.58% | 14.17% | 9.92% | 6.56% | 6.00% | 5.00% |
Inflation (IPCA) | 5.9% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
Inflation (IGP-M) | 5.5% | 3.7% | 10.5% | 7.2% | -0.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
FX Rate(R$ / US$, End of Period) | 2.36 | 2.66 | 3.96 | 3.26 | 3.31 | 3.88 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
National Unemployment Rate ³ (Annual Average) | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.7% |
National Unemployment Rate ³ (End of Period) | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% |
(1) Source: Brazilian Central Bank, FGV, IBGE, IMF, and Haver. (2) Source: Itaú Unibanco Holding analysis. (3) Unemployment Rate measured by PNAD Contínua.
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Brazil |Macroeconomic Outlook 1
GDP |% (YoY)
7
5
3 | 2.7 | |||||||
1 | 1.2 | |||||||
0.5 | ||||||||
-1 | ||||||||
-3 | ||||||||
-5 | ||||||||
-7 | ||||||||
Mar-11 | Mar-12 | Mar-13 | Mar-14 | Mar-15 | Mar-16 | Mar-17 | Mar-18 | Mar-19 |
EU | USA | Brazil |
GDP | QoQ (%)
1.6
0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
-0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |
-0.8-0.8 | -0.7 | -0.6 | |
Industrial Production 2 x Unemployment | Inflation Breakdown (%) | |||
20 | ||||
11.8 | 18 | |||
16 | ||||
14 | ||||
12 | ||||
10 | ||||
8 | ||||
88.1 | 6 | 4.6 | ||
4 | 3.6 | |||
2 | 3.2 | |||
0 | ||||
Dec-11Dec-12Dec-13 | Dec-14Dec-15Dec-16 | Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19 | ||
Dec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14 | Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19 | (E) | ||
(E) | IPCA 12 months | IPCA regulated prices | IPCA market prices | |
Industrial production | 3 | 12 months | 12 months | |
National Unemployment Rate |
-
Source: IBGE, Haver and Itaú Unibanco analysis. (2) Index (Average 2012 = 100). Source: IBGE. (3)Nation-wide Unemployment Rate seasonally adjusted measured by PNAD Contínua-IBGE (was initiated in March-
12). (E) Source: Based on Itaú Unibanco expectations.
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Itaú Unibanco Holding SA published this content on 09 September 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 09 September 2019 22:41:05 UTC
