By Ronnie Harui
SINGAPORE--Experts surveyed by Singapore's central bank have raised their economic growth forecast for this year, mainly on expectations of faster growth in manufacturing and construction.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore's March survey, released Wednesday, showed that the median projection of economists and analysts is for gross domestic product growth of 2.4% in 2024. That is up from the previous quarterly survey, in which they forecast a 2.3% expansion.
That would represent a sharp rebound for the city-state's economy from last year, when it expanded just 1.1%. The MAS survey's respondents predict that the recovery pace will pick up the following year, tipping GDP growth at 2.5% for 2025.
One of the main drivers behind the 2024 GDP growth forecast upgrade is an expected rebound in manufacturing, which contributes around a fifth to GDP. This sector's activity contracted last year, weighing on economic growth. Some other sectors of the economy are also tipped to grow solidly this year, with respondents forecasting finance and insurance to expand 3.4% in 2024 versus 2.5% projected previously.
The median forecast in the MAS survey is for manufacturing to expand 4.0% in 2024 versus the 2.3% growth projected previously, the survey showed. The respondents also expect a better performance from the construction sector, now tipping growth at 4.9% this year compared with 4.7% before.
Spillovers from external growth slowdown and geopolitical tensions emerged as the most-cited risk factors for the Singapore economy, the survey showed. Inflationary pressures and spillovers from weaker growth in China were also perceived as downside risks by respondents.
Conversely, better-than-expected external growth was flagged as the most-cited upside risk for Singapore's outlook, with faster-than-anticipated tech cycle recovery and more robust growth in China also seen as top upside risks.
Inflation is expected to ease this year, with the headline figure cooling to 3.1% from the 3.4% projected previously, while core inflation is forecast to stay unchanged at 3.0% this year, the survey showed.
The bulk of the respondents said they don't expect changes to the slope, width and level of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band at the upcoming April review. For the July and October policy reviews, 14% and 30% of respondents, respectively, anticipate a reduction in the slope of the policy band. Around 5% predicted a lowering of the level at which the S$NEER policy band is centered at both the July and October reviews, the survey indicated.
The central bank's monetary policy is centered on Singapore's exchange rate, which it considers an effective tool for maintaining price stability in the small and open economy.
The MAS said it had 23 respondents in its latest survey, the results of which don't represent the central bank's own views or forecasts.
Write to Ronnie Harui at ronnie.harui@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-13-24 0014ET
