Ireland has enjoyed broad industrial peace for over a decade thanks to successive pay agreements with its 385,000 public servants. The most recent deal expired at the end of December and talks on a successor broke up without agreement last month.
That prompted unions to threaten industrial action and they are due to meet on Thursday to finalise the wording of ballots. The process of balloting members usually takes a few weeks, providing a further window for a new deal to be struck.
Kevin Callinan, the general secretary of the largest public sector union Forsa, said any new deal would need to compensate members' recent loss in real wages after their average total pay increase of 9.5% over the last three years roughly equated to half the rate of inflation.
He said the deal would also need to take account of the projected rate of inflation, which the finance ministry sees falling to 2.9% this year, 2.4% next year and 1.9% in 2026. Callinan said he thinks it will be closer to 4% this year.
"A big part of this is we have no clue whatsoever as to what they (government) have in mind in relation to pay," he told national broadcaster RTE on Monday.
Nominal wages per head across the economy grew by an average of 3.6% in the first half of 2023. The finance ministry forecast in October that wages would rise by 4.6% this year, 4.5% next year and 4.3% in 2026.
(Reporting by Padraic Halpin; Editing by Sandra Maler)
