By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for December delivery rose 0.9% to $5.93 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade Friday, following the lead of Russian wheat prices higher.
--Corn for December delivery rose 0.6% to $4.10 1/2 a bushel.
--Soybeans for January delivery rose 0.2% to $11.48 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
The Great Bear: U.S. wheat futures took their cue from Russian prices Friday by moving higher. However, the lift from Russian wheat isn't likely to last, said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital. "U.S. export wheat prices are getting close to Russian values, but that is only a psychological support to the market," said Mr. Sernatinger.
Game On: After a brief pause yesterday, grains futures resumed their move higher, driven by a squeezed supply situation and hopes for higher export demand as illustrated in Tuesday's WASDE report, according to Arlan Suderman of StoneX. The data showed U.S. production lower than anticipated by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal -- with U.S. corn production at 14.51 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.17 billion bushels.
INSIGHTS
Spill The Beans: Export sales of grains were considerably down from last week, the USDA said in its weekly report. Corn sales totaled 978,300 metric tons for the week ending November 5, down 63% from the previous week. Meanwhile, soybean sales totaled 1.47 million tons - a marketing year low - down 4%. However, the news isn't all bad for the soy complex, with soy oil sales totaling 88,000 tons - near the high end of trader forecasts and exponentially higher than last week's total of 6,800 tons. For the week, India purchased 33,000 tons, South Korea bought 30,000 tons, Guatemala bought 17,000 tons, and Peru bought 5,700 tons. With this week's WASDE report showing U.S. row crop supply slimming, traders have increasingly turned their attention to demand indicators.
Holiday Hijinks: With the holidays drawing closer, volatility in grains futures are expected to grow, said Karl Setzer of AgriVisor. "In many years this starts just before the Thanksgiving Holiday and lasts through the end of the year," said Mr. Setzer. "To see reduced trade volume during this time span is not uncommon. This does not necessarily mean a reduction in trade volatility though, and in fact, it tends to increase."
Great Expectations: With crop prices across the board significantly higher from where they started 2020, U.S. farmers are thinking ahead. Farmers tell The Wall Street Journal that they are leaning towards planting more soybeans than they did in this past crop year. "There's enough strength in beans right now to prop more guys to plant beans," said John Gilbert, a farmer and livestock producer in Hardin County, Iowa.
AHEAD:
--Tyson Foods will release its fourth quarter earnings before the stock market opens on Monday.
--The USDA releases its weekly grain export inspections data at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA releases its weekly grain export inspections data at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The CFTC releases its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA releases its weekly crop progress report for the 2020/21 crop at 4 p.m. ET Monday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
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11-13-20 1614ET
