LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Colder-than-normal temperatures across Northwest Europe since the middle of January have steadied gas prices and halted the bloat in storage, but the region is still on track for a near-record carryout at the end of winter.

Combined gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom were equivalent to 807 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Feb. 1, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were 261 TWh (+48% or +2.59 standard deviations) above the prior 10-year seasonal average, with the surplus narrowing only slightly from 272 TWh (+45% or +2.63 standard deviations) on Jan. 22.

Stocks are projected to deplete to a post-winter low of 606 TWh (with a range from 468 TWh to 705 TWh), slightly down from a projection of 617 TWh (487-733 TWh) on Jan. 22.

But the projected carryout would still be the second-highest on record after 609 TWh at the end of winter 2019/2020.

Chartbook: Europe gas stocks and prices

Northwest Europe is more than 60% of the way through the heating season so there is increasing visibility about the likely carryout.

So far this winter, cumulative heating demand at Frankfurt in Germany has been 8% below the 10-year average for 2012 to 2022 and 17% below the long-term average for 1981-2010.

The winter has been the mildest since 2015/16 and before that 2007/07. The recent burst of cold has not been long or severe enough to offset fully the very mild weather between mid-December and mid-January.

The main impact has been to stem the earlier collapse in prices and calendar spreads.

Futures prices for deliveries in March 2023 have steadied around 55-60 euros per megawatt-hour since late January after slumping from 138 euros in mid-December.

The summer-winter calendar spread from July 2023 to January 2024 has firmed slightly from a contango of 10.60 euros at the end of January to around 9.60 euros on Feb. 2.

Lower prices have encouraged a little more consumption back from industrial users and power generators while staunching the influx of liquefied natural gas.

But overall Europe’s gas inventories remain exceptionally high for the time of year, which has kept a lid on prices and spreads despite the drop in temperatures.

Related columns:

- Crisis over? Europe’s gas stocks at seasonal record high

- Europe's gas prices slump to moderate storage build (Reuters, January 4, 2023)

John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own (Writing by John Kemp; Editing by Susan Fenton)