The Portland smelter has renegotiated its electricity supply until July 2026. AGL Energy ((AGL)) will supply 275MW with the balance supplied by Alinta and Origin Energy.

Morgan Stanley uncertainty is a marginal positive for the company. The new arrangements, while not disclosed, are suspected to be lower than market pricing and the broker estimates an FY22 operating earnings headwind of -2% for Origin Energy.

Equal-weight retained. Target is $4.88. Industry view is Cautious.

Sector: Energy.

Target price is $4.88.Current Price is $4.59. Difference: $0.29 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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