Financials Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Equities

ALK

US0116591092

Airlines

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 04:00:03 2025-06-20 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
46.98 ^USD	+0.23%		-1.01%	-27.44%

Jun. 12	Aircraft startup JetZero to invest $4.7 billion over a decade in North Carolina HQ	RE
Jun. 11	Trump's FAA nominee vows to hold Boeing 'accountable'	RE

Projected Income Statement: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	3,566	6,176	9,646	10,426	11,735	14,210	15,238	16,166
Change	-	73.19%	56.19%	8.09%	12.56%	21.09%	7.24%	6.09%
EBITDA ¹	-967	361	1,432	1,512	1,651	1,692	2,072	2,383
Change	-	137.33%	296.68%	5.59%	9.19%	2.5%	22.42%	15.05%
EBIT ¹	-1,686	-287	726	853	861	717.9	1,166	1,447
Change	-	82.98%	352.96%	17.49%	0.94%	-16.62%	62.35%	24.17%
Interest Paid ¹	-98	-128	-108	-121	-171	-281	-255	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-1,818	629	79	323	545	534.4	1,109	1,333
Change	-	134.6%	-87.44%	308.86%	68.73%	-1.94%	107.5%	20.24%
Net income ¹	-1,307	478	58	235	395	411.4	815.4	1,069
Change	-	136.57%	-87.87%	305.17%	68.09%	4.15%	98.19%	31.12%
Announcement Date	1/26/21	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	1/22/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2	2026 Q3	2026 Q4
Net sales ¹	421	701	808	797	1,527	1,953	1,899	1,681	2,658	2,828	2,479	2,196	2,838	2,839	2,553	2,232	2,897	3,072	3,534	3,137	3,651	3,766	3,660	3,349	3,876	4,031	3,832
Change	-	66.51%	15.26%	-1.36%	91.59%	27.9%	-2.76%	-11.48%	58.12%	6.4%	-12.34%	-11.42%	29.23%	0.04%	-10.07%	-12.57%	29.79%	6.04%	15.04%	-11.23%	16.39%	3.14%	-2.82%	-8.49%	15.74%	3.99%	-4.93%
EBITDA ¹	-405	-349	-253	-406	133	412	222	-59	550	618	323	61	691	501	253	28	779	600	386	152	560.9	577.6	469.3	192.6	550.6	658.3	440.7
Change	-	13.83%	27.51%	-60.47%	132.76%	209.77%	-46.12%	-126.58%	1,032.2%	12.36%	-47.73%	-81.11%	1,032.79%	-27.5%	-49.5%	-88.93%	2,682.14%	-22.98%	-35.67%	-60.62%	269.01%	2.98%	-18.75%	-58.95%	185.81%	19.56%	-33.05%
EBIT ¹	-586	-528	-423	-565	-27	249	56	-234	373	438	149	-102	524	340	85	-145	463	412	131	-104	286.7	339.1	221.4	34.37	371	467.4	225.6
Change	-	9.9%	19.89%	-33.57%	95.22%	1,022.22%	-77.51%	-517.86%	259.4%	17.43%	-65.98%	-168.46%	613.73%	-35.11%	-75%	-270.59%	419.31%	-11.02%	-68.2%	-179.39%	375.67%	18.26%	-34.71%	-84.47%	979.55%	25.96%	-51.73%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-17	-34	-34	-32	-39	-30	-27	-27	-26	-31	-24	-28	-28	-34	-31	-35	-36	-44	-56	-66	-70	-73	-73	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-291	-589	-621	-173	528	245	29	-206	185	65	35	-199	325	193	4	-178	316	328	79	-233	253	283.7	178	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-102.41%	-5.43%	72.14%	405.2%	-53.6%	-88.16%	-810.34%	189.81%	-64.86%	-46.15%	-668.57%	263.32%	-40.62%	-97.93%	-4,550%	277.53%	3.8%	-75.91%	-394.94%	208.58%	12.12%	-37.25%	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-214	-431	-430	-131	397	194	18	-143	139	40	22	-142	240	139	-2	-132	220	236	71	-166	187.2	231.6	130.3	29	-	-	-
Change	-	-101.4%	0.23%	69.53%	403.05%	-51.13%	-90.72%	-894.44%	197.2%	-71.22%	-45%	-745.45%	269.01%	-42.08%	-101.44%	-6,500%	266.67%	7.27%	-69.92%	-333.8%	212.75%	23.72%	-43.75%	-77.74%	-	-	-
Announcement Date	7/23/20	10/22/20	1/26/21	4/22/21	7/22/21	10/21/21	1/27/22	4/21/22	7/21/22	10/20/22	1/26/23	4/20/23	7/25/23	10/19/23	1/25/24	4/18/24	7/17/24	10/31/24	1/22/25	4/23/25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	149	970	1,458	2,027	2,429	3,297	2,675	1,969
Change	-	551.01%	50.31%	39.03%	19.83%	35.73%	-18.87%	-26.39%
Announcement Date	1/26/21	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	1/22/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
CAPEX ¹	206	292	1,671	1,494	1,281	1,414	1,344	1,552
Change	-	41.75%	472.26%	-10.59%	-14.26%	10.39%	-4.93%	15.48%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	-440	738	-253	-444	183	423	552.9	951.7
Change	-	267.73%	-134.28%	-75.49%	141.22%	131.15%	30.7%	72.15%
Announcement Date	1/26/21	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	1/22/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	-27.12%	5.85%	14.85%	14.5%	14.07%	11.91%	13.6%	14.74%
EBIT Margin (%)	-47.28%	-4.65%	7.53%	8.18%	7.34%	5.05%	7.65%	8.95%
EBT Margin (%)	-50.98%	10.18%	0.82%	3.1%	4.64%	3.76%	7.28%	8.25%
Net margin (%)	-36.65%	7.74%	0.6%	2.25%	3.37%	2.9%	5.35%	6.61%
FCF margin (%)	-12.34%	11.95%	-2.62%	-4.26%	1.56%	2.98%	3.63%	5.89%
FCF / Net Income (%)	33.66%	154.39%	-436.21%	-188.94%	46.33%	102.82%	67.8%	89.02%
Profitability
ROA	-9.29%	-1.83%	3.94%	4.05%	3.64%	2.12%	4.04%	5.68%
ROE	-34.24%	-7.54%	14.6%	14.71%	14.73%	10.44%	16.18%	17.84%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-0.15x	2.69x	1.02x	1.34x	1.47x	1.95x	1.29x	0.83x
Debt / Free cash flow	-0.34x	1.31x	-5.76x	-4.57x	13.27x	7.79x	4.84x	2.07x
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	5.78%	4.73%	17.32%	14.33%	10.92%	9.95%	8.82%	9.6%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	-21.3%	80.89%	116.69%	98.81%	77.59%	83.57%	64.89%	65.13%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	-46.82%	39.57%	-660.47%	-336.49%	700%	334.3%	243.16%	163.11%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	-1.896	8.125	11.09	8.158	11.4	13.1	15.35	16.16
Change	-	528.63%	36.46%	-26.42%	39.79%	14.89%	17.16%	5.27%
Dividend per Share ¹	0.375	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Book Value Per Share ¹	24.19	30.19	29.92	32.62	35.51	39.67	47.57	57.13
Change	-	24.79%	-0.89%	9.02%	8.86%	11.71%	19.93%	20.09%
EPS ¹	-10.59	3.77	0.45	1.83	3.08	3.346	6.547	8.961
Change	-	135.6%	-88.06%	306.67%	68.31%	8.62%	95.69%	36.87%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	123,664	125,311	126,838	128,053	126,945	121,393	121,393	121,393
Announcement Date	1/26/21	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	1/22/25	-	-	-