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44.62 | -1.13% |
| Jun. 08 | IATA Cuts 2026 Airline Profit Forecast by Nearly Half as Fuel Shock Pressures Industry | MT |
| Jun. 06 | Alaska Air says demand, fares could support second-half cash flow despite fuel shock | RE |
Projected Income Statement: Alaska Air Group, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 6,176 | 9,646 | 10,426 | 11,735 | 14,239 | 15,788 | 16,760 | 17,818 |
| Change | - | 56.19% | 8.09% | 12.56% | 21.34% | 10.88% | 6.16% | 6.31% |
| EBITDA 1 | 361 | 1,432 | 1,512 | 1,651 | 1,595 | 1,106 | 2,342 | 2,450 |
| Change | - | 296.68% | 5.59% | 9.19% | -3.39% | -30.63% | 111.63% | 4.64% |
| EBIT 1 | -287 | 726 | 853 | 861 | 550 | 13.74 | 1,140 | 1,436 |
| Change | - | 352.96% | 17.49% | 0.94% | -36.12% | -97.5% | 8,200.52% | 25.92% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -128 | -108 | -121 | -171 | -272 | -311.6 | -294.7 | -263.4 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 629 | 79 | 323 | 545 | 146 | -133.7 | 797.9 | 853.4 |
| Change | - | -87.44% | 308.86% | 68.73% | -73.21% | -191.57% | 696.8% | 6.96% |
| Net income 1 | 478 | 58 | 235 | 395 | 100 | -84 | 669.6 | 878.8 |
| Change | - | -87.87% | 305.17% | 68.09% | -74.68% | -184% | 897.09% | 31.24% |
| Announcement Date | 1/27/22 | 1/26/23 | 1/25/24 | 1/22/25 | 1/22/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Alaska Air Group, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 970 | 1,458 | 2,027 | 2,429 | 3,432 | 4,683 | 4,361 | 3,573 |
| Change | - | 50.31% | 39.03% | 19.83% | 41.29% | 36.45% | -6.88% | -18.07% |
| Announcement Date | 1/27/22 | 1/26/23 | 1/25/24 | 1/22/25 | 1/22/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Alaska Air Group, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 292 | 1,671 | 1,494 | 1,281 | 1,588 | 1,350 | 1,549 | 1,795 |
| Change | - | 472.26% | -10.59% | -14.26% | 23.97% | -15.01% | 14.74% | 15.93% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 738 | -253 | -444 | 183 | -339 | -369.4 | 534 | 919 |
| Change | - | -134.28% | -75.49% | 141.22% | -285.25% | -8.98% | 244.55% | 72.09% |
| Announcement Date | 1/27/22 | 1/26/23 | 1/25/24 | 1/22/25 | 1/22/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Alaska Air Group, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 5.85% | 14.85% | 14.5% | 14.07% | 11.2% | 7.01% | 13.97% | 13.75% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | -4.65% | 7.53% | 8.18% | 7.34% | 3.86% | 0.09% | 6.8% | 8.06% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 10.18% | 0.82% | 3.1% | 4.64% | 1.03% | -0.85% | 4.76% | 4.79% |
| Net margin (%) | 7.74% | 0.6% | 2.25% | 3.37% | 0.7% | -0.53% | 3.99% | 4.93% |
| FCF margin (%) | 11.95% | -2.62% | -4.26% | 1.56% | -2.38% | -2.34% | 3.19% | 5.16% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 154.39% | -436.21% | -188.94% | 46.33% | -339% | 439.81% | 79.76% | 104.58% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | -1.83% | 3.94% | 4.05% | 3.64% | 1.46% | -1.14% | 3.76% | - |
| ROE | -7.54% | 14.6% | 14.71% | 14.73% | 6.9% | -4.69% | 15.65% | 16.23% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 2.69x | 1.02x | 1.34x | 1.47x | 2.15x | 4.23x | 1.86x | 1.46x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 1.31x | -5.76x | -4.57x | 13.27x | -10.12x | -12.68x | 8.17x | 3.89x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 4.73% | 17.32% | 14.33% | 10.92% | 11.15% | 8.55% | 9.24% | 10.08% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 80.89% | 116.69% | 98.81% | 77.59% | 99.56% | 121.98% | 66.13% | 73.27% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 39.57% | -660.47% | -336.49% | 700% | -468.44% | -365.31% | 289.98% | 195.36% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 8.125 | 11.09 | 8.158 | 11.4 | 10.41 | 8.883 | 15.44 | - |
| Change | - | 36.46% | -26.42% | 39.79% | -8.68% | -14.7% | 73.82% | - |
| Dividend per Share 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 30.19 | 29.92 | 32.62 | 35.51 | 35.64 | 36.63 | 43.45 | 55.41 |
| Change | - | -0.89% | 9.02% | 8.86% | 0.38% | 2.78% | 18.6% | 27.53% |
| EPS 1 | 3.77 | 0.45 | 1.83 | 3.08 | 0.83 | -1.313 | 6.053 | 8.025 |
| Change | - | -88.06% | 306.67% | 68.31% | -73.05% | -258.23% | 560.91% | 32.57% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 125,311 | 126,838 | 128,053 | 126,945 | 115,989 | 111,429 | 111,429 | 111,429 |
| Announcement Date | 1/27/22 | 1/26/23 | 1/25/24 | 1/22/25 | 1/22/26 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | -34.4x | 7.46x |
| PBR | 1.23x | 1.04x |
| EV / Sales | 0.62x | 0.56x |
| Yield | - | - |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
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