Arbuthnot Banking : The recovery continues, though growth moderates
August 31, 2021 at 06:32 am EDT
Share
Recent Press Releases
Members of the media can contact the Arbuthnot Banking Group for further information or to arrange an interview. We will respond to all enquiries as soon as possible.
The recovery continues, though growth moderates
Date: 31st August 2021
In this Perspective Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, discusses the latest UK data:
Markit's flash UK Composite Output Index slipped to 55.3 in August, after July's 59.2, with the slowdown partly attributed to staff and supply shortages.
Both services and manufacturing growth slowed in August.
The SMMT said that car production fell 37.6% (YOY) in July 2021, the worst July performance since 1956.
The HMRC reported that completed residential transactions fell to 82,110 in July 2021, 61.5% (MOM) lower than in June (213,370), non-seasonally adjusted data. The Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) nil rate threshold (for England and Northern Ireland) was reduced from £500,000 to £250,000 on 1 July, causing transactions to peak in June.
The ONS reported that the proportion of businesses' workforce on full or partial furlough was 7% (around 1.8mn) in early August, the joint lowest since the scheme began.
The ONS added that 39% of those on furlough leave in early August were reported to be fully furloughed, the lowest proportion since data began to be collected (October 2020).
International update:
Markit's Composite Output Index for the Eurozone slipped marginally in August to 59.5, after July's 60.2. German growth continued to outstrip French growth.
The US Composite Output Index eased to 55.4 in August, after July's 59.9, with capacity pressures, material shortages and the spread of the Delta variant hampering activity.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his annual speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on 27 August, confirmed the Fed could start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year, but it was in no rush to raise interest rates.
Ruth Lea said 'Much has been made of the UK growth slowdown indicated by the Markit indices for August. But it should be emphasised that GDP growth in 2021Q2 was above trend and, even with moderation in 2021Q3, the recovery continues. This is not to dismiss the special problems, including staff and supply shortages, faced by businesses at the moment. Not at all. These problems are only to be expected as the economy, and more generally the global economy, continues to open up after the tough Covid-related restrictions.'
For full story: http://www.arbuthnotgroup.com/economic_perspectives_group.html
Maitland:
Sam Cartwright
020 7379 4415
arbuthnot@maitland.co.uk
Back
Attachments
Original document
Permalink
Disclaimer
Arbuthnot Banking Group plc published this content on 31 August 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 31 August 2021 10:31:08 UTC.
Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC is a United Kingdom-based holding company. The Company is primarily involved in banking and financial services. Its segments include Banking, Wealth Management, Mortgage Portfolios, Renaissance Asset Finance (RAF), Arbuthnot Commercial Asset Based Lending (ACABL), Arbuthnot Specialist Finance Limited (ASFL), Asset Alliance Group (AAG) and All Other Divisions. The Banking segment includes private and commercial banking. The Wealth Management segment offers financial planning and investment management services. The RAF segment operates as a specialist asset finance lender in high value cars but also business assets. The ACABL segment provides finance secured on either invoices, assets or stock of the borrower. The ASFL segment provides short term secured lending solutions to professional and entrepreneurial property investors. The AAG segment provides vehicle finance and related services, predominantly in the truck and trailer, and bus and coach markets.