CORPORATE PRESENTATION
3Q23
CONTENTS
1. Chilean Macro Environment
1.2. Chilean Financial System
3. Banco de Chile:
2. - Business Model & Key Metrics
- Competitive Strengths & Strategy
- Financial Performance 2018 - 2023
4. 3Q23 Financial Results in CLP
Chilean Macro
Environment
A successful growth story…
Per capita GDP
PPP, 1980 = 100
900 | |||||||||||||||||||||
800 | Argentina | Brazil | Chile | Colombia | |||||||||||||||||
700 | Mexico | Peru | Venezuela | ||||||||||||||||||
600 | |||||||||||||||||||||
500 | |||||||||||||||||||||
400 | |||||||||||||||||||||
300 | |||||||||||||||||||||
200 | |||||||||||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
1980 | 1982 | 1984 | 1986 | 1988 | 1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1996 | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 |
Per capita GDP
PPP, USD
35,000 | Argentina | Brazil | Chile | Colombia | |||||||||||||||||
30,000 | Mexico | Peru | Venezuela | ||||||||||||||||||
25,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
20,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
15,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
10,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
5,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
1980 | 1982 | 1984 | 1986 | 1988 | 1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1996 | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 |
Per capita GDP 2022
PPP, USD
28,887
26,074
22,440
18,693 17,684
15,273
7,108
Chile | Argentina Mexico colombia | Brazil | Peru Venezuela |
Source: IMF. | 4 |
… which led to a strong improvement in social development
Life expectancy at birth
Total years
79
76
75
74 74
70
Chile Argentina Colombia Brazil | Peru | Mexico |
Gini Index
Chile
56.2
44.9
1987 | 1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1996 | 1998 | 2000 | 2003 | 2006 | 2009 | 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2020 |
Human Capital Index
Scale 0-1
0.652
0.613
0.605 0.604 0.602
0.552
Chile | Mexico | Peru Colombia Argentina Brazil |
Life expectancy at birth
Total years, Chile
79
73
1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1996 | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 |
People using safely managed drinking water services
% of population
99
86
73
51
43
Chile Brazil Colombia Peru Mexico
Individuals using the Internet
% of population, Chile
88.3
0.0
1992 | 1994 | 1996 | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 |
Source: The World Bank. | 5 |
Key reforms behind Chile's success
Chile implemented a deep transformation in its economic
model between late 70 and early 80, including:
- To integrate Chile into the global economy. Today, there are free trade agreements with almost 90% of global GDP.
- Reduce the fiscal spending by promoting private investment and rule of law. Government responsible for providing some public goods and regulation.
- Economic policies are isolated from the central government:
- Central Bank has been independent since 1989.
- Monetary policy based in CPI target.
- Fiscal Policy has been driven by a rule since 2001.
- Financial and Banking regulator (CMF) has a similar governance to the Central Bank (board independent from de FM).
Headline CPI | |||||||||||||
YoY, % | |||||||||||||
40 | |||||||||||||
35 | |||||||||||||
30 | |||||||||||||
25 | |||||||||||||
20 | |||||||||||||
15 | |||||||||||||
10 | |||||||||||||
5 | |||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||
-5 | Jun-94Dec-95Jun-97Dec-98Jun-00 | Dec-01 | |||||||||||
Dec-89Jun-91 | Dec-92 | Jun-03 | Dec-04 | Jun-06Dec-07 | Jun-09Dec-10 | Jun-12 | Dec-13 | Jun-15 | Dec-16Jun-18Dec-19 | Jun-21 | Dec-22 | ||
Sovereign Rating | |||||||||||||
S&P | |||||||||||||
Chile | A | ||||||||||||
Peru | BBB+ | ||||||||||||
Mexico | BBB+ | ||||||||||||
Colombia | BB+ | ||||||||||||
Brazil | BB- | ||||||||||||
Argentina | CCC+ | ||||||||||||
Venezuela | C | ||||||||||||
6 |
A well diversified and open economy
Exports and Imports
Capital Inflows to Chile
An Economy Open to the World
USD Bn
USD Bn
•
Free Trade Agreements with almost
120
Exports Imports
104.4
100
•
90% Global GDP
Current account deficit financed by FDI
100
97.5
80
60
80
60
94.6
•
inflows
Trade Volume 54% of GDP
40
20
0
2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 |
Exports by Sector
% of total, 2022
WineMachinery
2% Forestry
40
20
0
2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 |
Exports by Destination
% of total, 2022
Others
Latam
GDP by Sector
Main sectors, % of total, 2022
Services | 32% |
Others | 22% |
Minning | 14% |
2%
7%
Chemicals
3%
Rest Asia
14%
Manufaturing | 10% |
Total Exports:
US$99 Bn
Copper
45%
9%
Others
16%
19%
U.S.
14%
Europe
10%
Commerce | 9% |
Construction | 6% |
Public Adm | 4% |
Food
19%
Source: Central Bank of Chile.
China 40%
Agriculture | 3% |
Source: trade.org,International Monetary Fund (IMF) & Central Bank of Chile. | 7 |
Global slowdown affecting Chilean economy…
Five-year Global Growth Projections
%
World Economic Outlook | Consensus Economics |
5%
4%
4%
3% | 3.1% | |||||||||||||
3% | 3.0% | |||||||||||||
2% | 2022 | |||||||||||||
2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2024 | 2026 | 2028 |
Monthly Chile's GDP Growth
YoY, Ma3
19%
14%
9%
4%
Manufacturing Indicators (PMI)
Levels
U.S. | China | Global | Euro | ||||
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Aug-20 | Oct-20 | Dec-20 | Feb-21 | Apr-21 | Jun-21 | Aug-21 | Oct-21 | Dec-21 | Feb-22 | Apr-22 | Jun-22 | Aug-22 | Oct-22 | Dec-22 | Feb-23 | Apr-23 | Jun-23 | Aug-23 |
Current Account Balance
LTM, % GDP
8%
4%
0% |
-1%
-6%
0.0%
-4% | -4.2% |
-8%
-11%
-16%
Aug-17 | Feb-18 | Aug-18 | Feb-19 | Aug-19 | Feb-20 | Aug-20 | Feb-21 | Aug-21 | Feb-22 | Aug-22 | Feb-23 | Aug-23 |
-12%
Jun-17 | Dec-17 | Jun-18 | Dec-18 | Jun-19 | Dec-19 | Jun-20 | Dec-20 | Jun-21 | Dec-21 | Jun-22 | Dec-22 | Jun-23 |
Source: Central Bank of Chile, Bloomberg and IMF. | 8 |
…and contributing to lowering inflation and monetary policy rate
Headline and Core CPI
YoY
16% | ||||||||||||
14% | CPI | Core CPI | ||||||||||
12% | ||||||||||||
10% | ||||||||||||
8% | ||||||||||||
6% | 5.2% | |||||||||||
4% | 5.1% | |||||||||||
2% | ||||||||||||
0% | Mar-18 | Mar-19 | Mar-20 | Mar-21 | Mar-22 | Mar-23 | Sep-23 | |||||
Sep-17 | Sep-18 | Sep-19 | Sep-20 | Sep-21 | Sep-22 |
Overnight Rate
EoP
12%
10%
9.5%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Sep-17 | Mar-18 | Sep-18 | Mar-19 | Sep-19 | Mar-20 | Sep-20 | Mar-21 | Sep-21 | Mar-22 | Sep-22 | Mar-23 | Sep-23 |
Source: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg.
Unemployment Rate
% of Labor Force
14%
12%
10%
9.0%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Sep-17 | Mar-18 | Sep-18 | Mar-19 | Sep-19 | Mar-20 | Sep-20 | Mar-21 | Sep-21 | Mar-22 | Sep-22 | Mar-23 | Sep-23 |
CLP and Multilateral USD
CLP / USD
1100 | 120 | ||||||||||||||
1000 | CLP | DXY | 115 | ||||||||||||
900 | 110 | ||||||||||||||
800 | 105 | ||||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||||
700 | 95 | ||||||||||||||
600 | 90 | ||||||||||||||
500 | 85 | ||||||||||||||
Mar-21 | Sep-21 | ||||||||||||||
Sep-17 | Mar-18 | Sep-18 | Mar-19 | Sep-19 | Mar-20 | Sep-20 | Mar-22 | Sep-22 | Mar-23 | Sep-23 |
9
Chile: Baseline Scenario
Banco de Chile's Forecast
YoY, %
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | |
GDP | -6.1 | 11.7 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 1.7 |
Consumption | -6.6 | 19.3 | 3.1 | -3.8 | 1.8 |
Investment | -10.8 | 15.7 | 2.8 | -2.2 | -0.4 |
Exports | -0.9 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
Imports | -12.3 | 31.8 | 0.9 | -8.0 | 3.4 |
CPI | 3.0 | 7.2 | 12.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
Overnight Rate (EOP) | 0.5 | 4.0 | 11.25 | 8.00 | 5.00 |
Exchange Rate (EOP) | 711 | 840 | 859 | 880 | 850 |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -7.3 | -7.6 | 1.1 | -2.9 | -1.5 |
Current Account (% GDP) | -1.9 | -7.5 | -9.0 | -4.0 | -2.5 |
Source: Central Bank of Chile, Banco de Chile.
Inflation and Overnight Rate Quarterly Forecast
EOP
CPI | Overnight rate | |
9.50%
8.00%
7.00%
6.25%
5.50%
5.1% | 5.00% |
4.2%
3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0%
Sept-23Dec-23Jan-24Jun-24Sept-24Dec-24
10
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Disclaimer
Banco de Chile published this content on 21 November 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 21 November 2023 16:20:04 UTC.