Calumet Specialty Products Partners L P : Analyst Day Transcript

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Calumet Specialty Products Partners, LP

LP MRL Analyst Day Briefing

Thursday, April 18, 2024 - 10:15 AM ET

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS

Todd Borgmann - Chief Executive Officer

David Lunin- Chief Financial Officer

Scott Obermeier - Executive Vice President, Specialties

Bruce Fleming - Executive Vice President, Montana Renewables

John Kompa - Director, Investor Relations

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PRESENTATION

John Kompa

Good morning. Thank you for being here at our Great Falls site. My name is John Kompa, Director of Investor Relations. Earlier this morning, our presentation slides were posted on the investor relations page of Calumet's website. I'll point you to our forward-looking statement slides contained in the presentation. With that, I'd like to turn the presentation over to Todd Borgmann, our CEO. Todd?

Todd Borgmann

Thanks John, I'd like to welcome everyone to our Great Falls site. It's important for us that you are here. It means a lot, and it's a really exciting time for Calumet.

As we enter Q2, we think of this as a new era for Calumet. Q1 is behind us, and we issued a press release the other day highlighting how excited we are to enter Q2 with the old expensive feed out of the system, the winter asphalt season behind us, and coming off a successful turnaround in Shreveport.

We're really excited about what lies ahead for our company. It's going to be the first quarter, we believe, that we have both Montana renewables and our specialties business fully operating. And it's a quarter where we're expecting at least some of the catalysts we've discussed publicly to materialize. And we're going to talk about that today.

You'll get a deeper dive into both the specialties business from Scott and Montana Renewables from Bruce. And then David will pull it all together and talk about how that shapes our de- leveraging plan and next steps. So, again, we really appreciate you being here.

The last time we did this was 2022. Some of you were in this picture of that event, and some of you weren't. But at that point in time, you know, we did the same tour that we'll do today. Except back then, in the background was a construction site. A big piece of the Great Falls story is how quickly this has come together. Everything that we're going to see today was just an idea in 2020. We then started the financing process in 2021 with Oaktree, Warburg came in as a partner in 2022 as construction continued. And at the end of 2022, we started up the Renewable Diesel unit at a lower rate than it runs today. In the middle of 2023, we finished commissioning the entire plant as SAF and pretreater came online. So really, in three years, we've gone from ideation to creation of what you're going to see today, which we believe is now a leading renewable diesel player and the largest SAF business in North America. And we're excited about the opportunities that this business provides Calumet going forward.

So, let's go to the next slide, John. We'll talk about the near-term catalysts that sit ahead. And while we're excited to demonstrate the competitive advantage of Montana Renewables, and the cash flow generation power of both businesses, there's a lot that's happened over the last three years. We talked earlier about just going from ideation to full production at Montana Renewables. Our MRL strategy was the delayed a little bit in the middle of last year with the steam drum leak. But now the old feed is through the system, and we're ready to step into this new era. We've demonstrated that we have a competitively advantaged supply chain at Montana Renewables. We've demonstrated how important the agile, flexible marketing is and how we can access Oregon, Washington, California, Canada, which will continue to be important as these markets evolve, and how critical flexibility is for us across the commercial organization. We've

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demonstrated that our technology provides a competitive advantage, and we find ourselves now at a point where it takes one full clean quarter to actually capture the credit for these things. We're 18 days into that quarter now, we're doing well and need to maintain the pace. In the grand scheme of things, we're still early in the MRL story, and we're continuing to get more efficient and operate better, which we expect to continue over time. But we really do find ourselves in a different time and think that a lot of investors that we talk to are waiting for that final proof point on Montana Renewables.

The second catalyst, that has, obviously, drawn a lot of attention, and you'll hear more about today from Bruce, is the potential DOE loan, which continues to go well, and we think we're in the late stages. Obviously, like we always say, we can't guarantee anything there, but we do remain optimistic. It's the next step of our transformation, and it is expected to support our growth plans.

We'll see today, when we walk around the site, where the max SAF expansion is going to be. And Bruce will get into the impact that this project can make on the business and the upside that it creates. And then the last near-term catalyst is the corporate conversion. And David will talk more about that. The punchline is we're on track to get that done in the second quarter.

When you think about conversion and the trends for MLPs, it's been on the list of considerations for a few years as it became more and more clear that a structure change was likely needed to ultimately get the trading liquidity and the value recognition that we believe exists inside Calumet. But as the conversation was discussed three, four years ago, it just wasn't time yet. There was too much work to be done.

We needed to transform the specialties business and finance, construct, and operate Montana Renewables before worrying about the structure. I think Scott and his team have done that in specialties, and we're here today to show you the Montana operations. Specialties has been an incredible turnaround. The commercial progress that our business has made has been tremendous, the investment in reliability and fortifying our operations continues, and while we still have a way to go, we see the impact.

We've also seen the resiliency of that business as even during COVID it generated cash. In 2022, we generated almost $400 million in the business. Last year, we posted $260 million, and you know, quite frankly, left $70 million on the table with some of the weather events we had in Shreveport. Now, our reliability investments are focused on fortifying those operations. We can't control the weather, but we can control how we operate through it.

So, Scott's team has demonstrated how commercially advantaged this business really is and the value that exists within a world class customer base and flexible, integrated operations to serve them. We expect to build on those core strengths. Then, when we talk about Montana Renewables, you're going to see a business that's competitively advantaged and can be a growth catalyst for us. It's a business that can standalone and generate cash, we believe, in any reasonable environment. And one of the things Bruce will talk about today is how this business stacks up against the broad range of assets in our industry. Bruce is going to walk through how we think about competition and break evens across the industry, and we want to highlight that even in a downside scenario like the industry is seeing currently, this business is positioned to perform.

While we think that we can generate cash in most scenarios, we also believe that market dynamics are going to improve over time. And we'll talk about why and when and how that might play out.

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Before I turn it over to Scott, I'll say we probably haven't spent enough time talking about the specialties business, how far we've come, and how important it is over the past few years.

It's a core piece of our cashflow generation strategy, and not only has it improved dramatically, but we also think there's meaningful opportunity left. As we think about the balance sheet and the financial goals of this company both Specialties and Montana Renewables play a huge role. Specialties has demonstrated the ability to do this to generate strong cash flow that can be used towards organic de-leveraging. You partner that with the Montana Renewables growth stream, and you can de-leverage through core cash flows, but obviously we want to go faster, which is where a potential MRL monetization comes in. Before we go there, Scott, why don't I turn it over to you, and take us a little bit deeper into the specialties business? And then we'll go to Bruce, David, and wrap it up and get out to the tour.

Scott Obermeier

Thanks, Todd. For those I have not met, I'm Scott Obermeier, EVP of our specialties business. I've been with the company seven years after 20 years in the chemical business. To level set here for our analysts in the room, we have the three external business units that we report.

Bruce is going to dive deep into the whole Montana Renewables after me. What we refer to as the Specialties business is made up of our Performance Brand segment and our Specialty Products and Solutions segment. Within Specialty Products and Solutions, we have a variety of specialty products, and we have our fuels asphalt as well, all leveraged in our integrated asset network. So, let's start with the word that Todd used a few times in his open - transformation.

The area we looked at to begin our transformation was our specialties business, specifically core segment Specialty Products and Solutions. The transformation started almost seven years ago, with the focus on what we have and how can we win consistently based on the right strategy. At the time, our results were up and down each year, like you see with commodity refining.

We wanted to step back and review because we had some built-in competitive advantages that we were not leveraging nor extracting full value as the specialty business delivered inconsistent results, so we spent a lot of time thinking through how we can create a winning business. The core answer to that question was the fact that we believed we had to leverage our differentiation throughout our specialty products portfolio.

We benefit from a loyal customer base, a broad product slate, and unique integrated assets, so we knew we had a great platform to start the transformation. The team has made significant progress over the years progressing our strategy.

In addition to the competitive advantages and differentiators we have in our customer and product slate, plus our unique integrated asset model, none of that matters if we are not able to execute, so that has been key to the success of our transformation. As we think about execution, we think about people and process. In turn, we stood up a commercial excellence program that was focused on the voice of the customer, pivoting our approach to value over volume as a business, understanding how we can win with large account management, effective branding, and return on investment.

And so, we have done a lot of work within the area of commercial excellence, and it has been extremely effective as we have delivered five years in a row of record margin results within the

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specialty side of the business. We think there's a lot more we can do, especially as we get ourselves rebalanced financially. We are proud of our progress and excited about the future as we have built a differentiated business, an advantaged business, and frankly, a winning business in specialties.

Let me call out the two charts here on this slide. The first one many of you have seen is the chart regarding our margin improvement over the years, and we have done it against all different economic backgrounds as we had the Covid 2020-year, hyperinflation that followed, and everything in between.

The bottom chart reinforces our commitment on being a customer centric organization. We talk a lot about the customers -- how we can earn our customer's business and how we create customers for life from a loyalty standpoint. And we've made a lot of progress as shown on that bottom right chart. A lot of companies use what's called NPS, or net promoter scores. It's a measure of customer satisfaction. We do these surveys as well with our customers as we want their feedback as we want to get better so we can earn their business every day because this creates sticky business. With sticky business, and our numerous long-term relationships, we think we have great opportunities and a phenomenal platform to drive growth, plus benefit on our margin management and bottom line. When you look back to say 2021, and look at our feedback from customers, we had a net promoter score of almost 42, which is already top quartile in the chemical and refining industry. We have always been solid here as Calumet's fabric over 100 years in business has been built on caring about the customers and building those relationships. We used our commercial excellence approach, and the transformation of the business, to build further on that strong base. Now looking at the progress that we've made and the feedback we have received from surveying thousands of customers, we are essentially best in class with a net promoter score last year of 57. Results have been good and improving, we are earnings our customer's business based on the right value propositions, and we see a lot more upside going forward.

So, John, if you want to go to the next slide. Let me dive deeper into two areas. Let me start with, again, the focus on the customers and our product and market diversification. I think that the comments are on the right side, talk to why it's important. We think that our diversified customers, markets, and products provide a competitive advantage in our space, for two reasons. Number one, it provides risk mitigation during market downturns or pockets of downturn in a market as we are not wedded to any single market, nor do we have any customer representing more than 10% of the business. So, while the market remains highly volatile, we can weather through any of these individual storms that can occur overall or in a certain geography, certain industry, or certain customer base. So, the takeaway is this diversification provides some downside protection. More exciting, though is the upside this diversification provides, because if we look at our 3,000 plus customers and the four times as many locations that we ship to all around the world, it's a great opportunity for us to go drive growth.

When you think about new product development and new applications, we've got this great network of customers and relationships to drive growth. So, this diversification that we have protects us on the downside, but it provides the business a lot of great upside growth opportunity. When we look at the donut charts on the left, the top one being Specialty Products and Solutions and the bottom one being our Performance Brand segment, you can clearly see our breadth.

Our Specialty Products and Solutions business, we're selling products into highly specialized areas like the pharmaceutical and personal care industry, yet we also sell into general industrial

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lubricants and paint and coatings. And so, it's highly diversified, across all these different industries, all around the world. Also, many of our customers are Fortune 500 companies.

On the Performance Brand side, we're not sure if people really understand this segment well - is it a motor oil company? Is it just Tru Fuel to the big box retailers? Again, the same type of theme within Performance Brands: we are highly diversified with a good, solid retail business with the big box retailers and our great brands, like Tru Fuel, Bel Ray, and Royal Purple. But we also have significant business sold to industrial applications. We really have three great brands in Royal Purple, Bel Ray, and Tru Fuel, plus a passionate, loyal customer base that is highly diversified from industrial to commercial vehicles to retail.

So, if we go to the next slide, John to talk about our integrated asset model. So, when we think about our specialties business, it starts with our 10 production plants, with our core three refineries located in northwest Louisiana, which make fuels and asphalt, plus a variety of specialty products. So, we take a lot of those products in northwest Louisiana that we make, and we sell them directly to the end market and to our customers, whether it be solvents, wax, base oils, or fuels. But one of our unique advantages is, we also have another seven production plants -- blending plants and chemical processing plants, where we use many of our core products from northwest Louisiana and upgrade them further into specialized products that carry at least two times the margin. Whether it be our candle blending plant in Indiana, Penreco white oils and petrolatum production in Texas and Pennsylvania, etc. -- we take a lot of these core products and we move them down that value chain. The integrated assets therefore provide us with a lot of different opportunities which is critical, especially in volatile markets. We have a lot of flexibility with our integrated asset model. We still have more upside in this area, especially with some of the early work within our Performance Brands business tying into the Specialty Products and Solutions value chain.

Both businesses report into me and we run them with the focus on being an integrated best in class specialty products business.

Diving deeper into our Performance Brands business -- we have three core brands and a passionate customer base with excellent diversification. The business is perfectly positioned and aligned to a lot of exciting growth opportunities moving forward.

We think about global mega trends such as mining and energy and how are brands fit very well here. Reliability is key in this evolving and demanding world and our brands are known for high performance. Sustainability is a critical area globally and we introduced BioMax as an environmentally acceptable lubricant a couple years ago that is growing at very high rates. In the past month we introduced BioMax grease as well, so we are really excited about the progress we're making within the area of sustainability. And then, in the diversified areas that I touched on earlier, everything from direct to consumer to retail to industrial applications, we have a great products and solutions offering across the board.

Overall, we are in the early stages of our transformation work within this segment and doing a lot of the work that we did within Specialty Products and Solutions around commercial excellence programs. Last year, we doubled our EBITDA within Performance Brands, and we see further upside within the business, so we are excited.

Also, we will be looking to accelerate new business development via product innovation. We've developed more new products here at Calumet in the past 18 months than we had in the past 10 years combined. It has been a big area of focus for us. On the right-hand side of this slide shows a few of our new products, and we have developed triple this amount. A lot are in the sustainability

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arena, whether it be carbon neutral candle wax or naturally enhanced petrolatum. We continue to find new growth opportunities across our huge customer network and leverage our knowledge of markets.

Our near-term outlook on Fuels within our SPS segment is constructive and we view this as continued upside for us. Remember, we think of fuels as a byproduct of the specialties production process. We can process third party intermediates into specialties and minimize fuels, but typically the economics say making our own specialties feed and selling the associated fuels is much more advantaged. That additional margin is upside, and that the cash that we've been generating within the specialties business will continue to help us de-lever.

In the future, post de-levering, we've got in the queue numerous organic and inorganic growth opportunities that we're excited about. On the organic side, as we think about using capital to drive growth internally, we are excited because we been capital constrained for years. We have a variety of high IRR projects we have identified. So, we have a plan to invest in our core business to unlock capacity and improve the product mix that we are excited about. On the inorganic side

• we think there's opportunities within the M&A space within the branded products areas where we see potential attractive fits for us.

Post de-levering, we have plans in place to continue and drive profitable growth for the business, at strong cash flows. We remain excited about the business and believe it will continue to perform at best-in-class levels. We think there's more upside work that we're going to continue to extract. I am proud of the team and proud of the business. With that, let me turn it over to Bruce.

Bruce Fleming

Okay. Thank you, Scott. I had a good chance to meet everybody at dinner, so you know I'm the EVP of our Montana division. That includes both the fossil refinery here as well as Montana Renewables. Today we're going to focus on Montana Renewables. So, as we shift gears, Scott is the steward of our specialties assets, which go back more than 100 years in a couple of cases. We've only been public since 2006 but the successful businesses have a long, long tenure.

If you're going to survive that long, you're going to see a lot of changes in the market. You're going to see changes in competition, regulation, and you're going to adapt and you're going to overcome. I think the strength of our specialty businesses is exactly that. I'm going to try to take some of that Calumet DNA and map it over to the brand-new Montana Renewables and talk about how we see the world of competition and regulation and change and creativity.

I'm going to start us off with several slides that are around the theme of competition. How does it occur? What's going to differentiate a better competitor from the whole pack? We're going to try to integrate it all in one place for you today. And the keys are the sorts of things that are on this slide, particularly the state-of-the-art facility; strategic proximity to advantaged feedstocks; and renewable product distribution into all of the low carbon markets. We were able to move quickly to take advantage of these factors and today we are the Western Hemisphere's largest SAF Producer.

Turning to slide 17 for more detail, I'd like to begin with the asset, because the quality of the facility itself matters to everything else we will measure. To make an analogy to petroleum refining, Solomon Associates frames asset operations into quartiles. It's basically, do you have a first quartile asset in really good shape, that offers a low maintenance cost, that's reliable, that has an efficient level of staffing, and so on. Or are you at the other end of that spectrum? We are

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essentially brand new, and we think we've got a strong leg up in the competitiveness of the steel itself. Consider that there were about a half dozen refinery conversions to renewable feedstock over the last several years. It takes varying amounts of spending to get old assets modernized, particularly for renewable feeds, which are difficult. They're corrosive. Processing renewable feed makes incredibly large, exothermic heat release problems in operations and in design. And through serendipity, through the history of the steps that we had taken over the last century at our Montana location, we had a brand-new hydrocracker, with the right metallurgy, with the right kind of recycle and exothermic heat release control capabilities, so that in 2022 we almost literally just changed the catalyst and switched to the new renewable feed and stood it up. It was almost that simple.

Then, from that base, in 2023 we expanded and made it twice as big. To do that, we had to come up with a lot more hydrogen. So, we built a renewable hydrogen plant. We think that's an interesting innovation. And then we put in an economic optimizer, in the form of the feedstock pre- treater.

And at that point, there is differentiated competitive advantage in the MRL asset itself. The feedstock flexibility and access which we enjoy because of our pretreater and our location; the proximity to all the low carbon fuel standard end markets simultaneously, and our SAF output all follow from having a first quartile asset. I'm going to show you how we get to that.

The next slide is a photo of MRL up and running. The competitive advantages in renewable diesel can be quantified in the areas of feed supply, quality, and cost; access to the product end markets for our three renewable products; our SAF yield and finally, scale and operating efficiencies. We're presently a world scale facility. This factors in to cost competitiveness which we address on the next slide.

If everybody can access the same feedstocks, make the same products, and sell them to the same customers, then competitive advantage usually comes down to cost to serve a customer. So, what you're looking at on the chart, is a cost to serve seriatim.

We think we've got the lowest cost. You see Montana Renewables, lower left in the blue shaded box. Our permitted capacity is 230 million gallons a year. The x axis is industry capacity going up to about 6 billion gallons of nameplate throughput. After MRL, the next lowest cost competitors are the west coast. Relative to MRL the West Coast operators will be better off on logistics to California, but worse off than MRL on logistics to, let's say, Calgary or Seattle.

Nonetheless, that's a pretty solid position to occupy. And people like Marathon and Phillips 66 and Chevron, who all have projects in California, are very, very credible operators. Next higher cost competitor group is the Gulf Coast. So, we start to identify folks like that as our competitors. We pay a lot of attention to how we're differentiated and how we're going to compete in that kind of a world. We'll show you some data on logistics costs, between various points in a few more slides.

The West Coast, Gulf Coast, and mid-continent RD cost blocks shown here, in navy blue color, are mainly differentiated on logistics costs. They're all hitting the West Coast LCFS markets, and they have different delivered costs to do that. To put it simply, the further you are from the richest markets, the less competitive you are on delivered cost to serve. That's not rocket science. But there's a wide range here. Some of the most capable operators in the world are here, and some operate at scale and have integrated feedstocks, and these players are going to be global exceptional pillars of this industry for a long time. Others are relatively new to these types of

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industrial operations. After these competitors, you get a pretty sharp break at the green block in the middle, which is the cost structure for a USGC renewable diesel competitor that does not own a pre-treater. This group is going to purchase clean feeds in the market which is a lot more expensive. They are going to save on the cost of operating a pre-treater, so there's a netting effect, but it's a less competitive higher cost position. And finally, we come to the biodiesel players. The legacy biodiesel industry is considered to be the marginal supply and therefore the price setter. We've shown biodiesel cost structure for large and small on the chart. The difference is mostly whether the plant invested in operational efficiencies? And there are two that matter. The first is location again. The second is methanol consumption. It's a co-reactant. You have to buy it, and you have to get it delivered to your site, which is actually not a small undertaking if you're in the middle of the mid-continent somewhere. The small biodiesel players use twice as much methanol if they don't have the investment in efficiency of methanol recovery and recycle. Anybody that's ever built the models for these plants will appreciate those cost distinctions among the biodiesel players.

With that said, if we kind of pull back out of the forest for a second, to close the supply balance, we need total nonethanol fuels in the 6-billion-gallon ethanol equivalent range. The EPA's requirement for generation of a certain number of RINs is the largest component, but there are other collective requirements across a bunch of different geographies. There are four different LCFS geographies, plus the Canadian federal requirement which is different than the BC requirement. And then we've got a bespoke collection of individual state mandates.

So, who gets what capacity utilization rate? So, you would think the stronger players probably get to run a higher utilization, and the marginal guy is at the other end of that. And you'd be right. If you pull a history of biodiesel plant utilization, that capacity that you're looking at here has run anywhere from 50 to 75%, in any given year, in the last decade. So, biodiesel is absolutely the swing supply when you look backwards.

Now consider the industry index margin shown across the top. This is a gross margin, and it doesn't have anybody's costs in it. This is like a WTI 321 crack spread for a refiner. And historically, that is just north of $2 a gallon, gross margin. So, if you think about it, if the market offers us something north of $2 a gallon, and the MRL costs are down in about $0.75 range, plus or minus -- and we'll come back to cost in a bit -- then we should be making about $1.25. And that's what we've advertised. We've given guidance that, on a dirty feed basis, we should be $1.25 to $1.45 per gallon EBITDA. For that to happen, we have to run full to spread fixed costs.

Why soybean industry index? Because it's half of the supply of the industry. No, it's not the most attractive margin and other feeds are better. Yes, it's the last barrel through the entire industry's machine that closes the balances. It's providing a frame of reference for competition, like WTI crude does in refining.

Turning to the next chart, this soybean index is low currently. This is the same chart and same competitor data, no changes, other than we move the external market reference down. So here comes a low cycle test if you want to call it that. If we've got half or more of the industry supply capacity unable to cover its costs, how long does this situation remain static before somebody reacts? Who's going to react? And how will that go? And how will it play out? And is it a transition or is it a step change to a new condition? This is all getting a tremendous amount of debate in the last several months.

A longer-term player would say, given that environment, there will be a competitive response, and therefore, it's going to evolve. So, to the right of the slide, a couple of obvious points about

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response. The first thing that'll happen is, commodity ag oil will collapse, and it has. Pull a chart of any of these feedstock prices over the last 24 months, and watch it take an elevator straight into the sub-basement.

Why would that be? Well, there's a whole bunch of people that aren't going to buy that feedstock to run it through their machine and lose money, so feedstock demand falls. You've got incremental biodiesel capacity closing already. Chevron announced two closures about a month ago. There was a small independent last fall. There'll be more. But what's interesting about biodiesel capacity is that it's much, much more flexible and tolerant of closure than say, an entire crude oil refinery. You just go out and you pull the circuit breaker, and the biodiesel plant stops. You release the workforce, or in the case of the smaller producers repurpose them elsewhere until it swings back - this isn't the first rodeo for these guys. But you can reverse those steps easily. Interestingly enough Calumet used to have one of these exact facilities. It was a tiny operation, much too small to report on, and it was literally a month-to-month decision on whether to run or not. So, we'll see whether biodiesel shutdown is permanent, or will restart when the market dynamic reverses.

The more interesting part to me is renewable diesel cannibalization into SAF, if the renewable diesel environment is soft, why wouldn't people like us promptly take renewable diesel, make it into SAF, and get it into a better market? And of course they will. BD is prohibited from SAF, but all the existing RD players will look at SAF. How long is that going to take? Well, about 15% of all of the renewable diesel that's out there right now, happens to be jet boiling range. All you need to do is distill it out. It's not a big deal. At MRL we already did it, we get that SAF credit immediately. But if you don't have that distillation tower, which only MRL and World Energy do, then you need

• I'll center it on 18 months -- a capital project, a permit, design, construction, and boom, 15% of RD output goes away and shows up as SAF for the price of a distillation tower and some segregation. So that part's going to happen relatively fast.

Beyond that, what is going to happen much more slowly is industry scaleup. If you are having to overcome greenfield economics, instead of brownfield, if you have a new technology that's not commercialized yet, but you think should work but the underwriter can't see where it is proved, if you have to stand up a workforce in a high-risk technical manufacturing activity, then financing and investment decisions happen slowly or not at all. Our people are trained, they're experienced, they're certified. We have three levels of protection around things like inspection, metallurgy, corrosion, safety, automatic systems. Delivering all that organizational capability as a new entrant is a lot to ask. And so, we think that the people faster to the SAF prize are going to be the existing chemical engineering operators. A lot of them will be refiners. And that SAF cannibalizes RD supply.

Now let's talk about the demand growth side of market response. CARB is already going to pull the trigger on accelerating their LCFS ramp. They're going to accelerate it faster, meaning they'll need more. More LCFS geographies will continue to opt in. State and Global mandates will continue as voters continue to demand an energy transition. The closer you get to the ground, the more you're going to find a situation where the state legislature or the provincial one across the border, will mandate something. Illinois is giving $1.50 a gallon SAF tax credit. If you're a state taxpayer, which we are, you can access that. If you pull up a map of the Burlington Northern Railroad and ask, how would the SAF get from Great Falls to O'Hare, it's going to be staring you right in the face. You could do the same experiment for Washington or Minneapolis. So, these things will continue to show up in the landscape and create a differentiation among who can get to the prize first, or who can keep the prize, versus who's going to be further away and not competitive. It's very difficult for a forecaster to take a quantitative position on all of these things.