CHINA MODERN DAIRY HOLDINGS LTD. |
Market Closed -
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 0.64 HKD | +3.23% |
|
+1.59% | -13.51% |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 4,199 | 6,585 | 10,111 | 8,449 | 6,921 | 4,689 | 4,689 | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 10,644 | 12,511 | 14,799 | 15,624 | 17,266 | 5,324 | 14,384 | 13,572 |
| P/E ratio | -8.4 x | 18.6 x | 13 x | 7.42 x | 12.3 x | 30.4 x | 10.1 x | 4.25 x |
| Yield | - | - | 1.28% | 2.44% | 1.62% | 2.94% | 1.67% | 3.28% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 0.85 x | 1.19 x | 1.68 x | 1.19 x | 0.56 x | 0.4 x | 0.32 x | 0.29 x |
| EV / Revenue | 2.15 x | 2.27 x | 2.46 x | 2.21 x | 1.4 x | 0.4 x | 0.97 x | 0.83 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.31 x | 6.39 x | 6.87 x | 6.89 x | 6.3 x | 2.13 x | 4.55 x | 3.91 x |
| EV / FCF | -59.4 x | 25.5 x | 32.6 x | -126 x | -6.96 x | 5.64 x | 22.3 x | 10.9 x |
| FCF Yield | -1.68% | 3.92% | 3.07% | -0.79% | -14.4% | 17.7% | 4.48% | 9.19% |
| Price to Book | 0.65 x | 0.93 x | 1.28 x | 0.78 x | 0.61 x | 0.39 x | 0.37 x | 0.34 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 6,131,407 | 6,407,635 | 6,458,566 | 7,915,662 | 7,915,662 | 7,915,662 | 7,915,662 | - |
| Reference price 2 | 0.6849 | 1.028 | 1.565 | 1.067 | 0.8743 | 0.5924 | 0.5924 | 0.5924 |
| Announcement Date | 3/25/19 | 3/23/20 | 3/23/21 | 3/29/22 | 3/28/23 | 3/25/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 4,957 | 5,514 | 6,020 | 7,078 | 12,295 | 13,458 | 14,771 | 16,293 |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,456 | 1,958 | 2,153 | 2,268 | 2,740 | 2,496 | 3,164 | 3,470 |
| EBIT 1 | 1,141 | 1,650 | 1,890 | 1,987 | 974.6 | 1,898 | 2,870 | 3,343 |
| Operating Margin | 23.03% | 29.92% | 31.4% | 28.07% | 7.93% | 14.1% | 19.43% | 20.52% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | -505.7 | 350.4 | 784.4 | 1,233 | 595 | 229 | 724.2 | 1,091 |
| Net income 1 | -496.1 | 341.3 | 770 | 1,019 | 562.5 | 175.2 | 650.2 | 997.4 |
| Net margin | -10.01% | 6.19% | 12.79% | 14.39% | 4.57% | 1.3% | 4.4% | 6.12% |
| EPS 2 | -0.0815 | 0.0552 | 0.1204 | 0.1439 | 0.0713 | 0.0221 | 0.0584 | 0.1393 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | -179.3 | 490.1 | 454.3 | -123.9 | -2,482 | 2,554 | 645 | 1,247 |
| FCF margin | -3.62% | 8.89% | 7.55% | -1.75% | -20.19% | 18.58% | 4.37% | 7.65% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | - | 25.02% | 21.11% | - | - | 93.71% | 20.38% | 35.94% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | - | 143.61% | 59% | - | - | 540.52% | 99.2% | 125.03% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | 0.0200 | 0.0260 | 0.0142 | 0.0174 | 0.009900 | 0.0195 |
| Announcement Date | 3/25/19 | 3/23/20 | 3/23/21 | 3/29/22 | 3/28/23 | 3/25/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 S1 | 2019 S2 | 2020 S1 | 2021 S1 | 2022 S1 | 2023 S1 | 2023 S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 2,570 | 2,944 | 2,828 | 3,180 | - | - | 6,905 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Operating Margin | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | -4.31 |
| Net income 1 | - | - | 220.7 | 496.7 | 507.7 | 209.3 | -34.13 |
| Net margin | - | - | 7.81% | 15.62% | - | - | 3.02% |
| EPS 2 | 0.0205 | 0.0347 | - | - | 0.0645 | 0.0265 | 0.0560 |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 8/26/19 | 3/23/20 | 8/24/20 | 8/23/21 | 8/23/22 | 8/29/23 | 3/25/24 |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 6,445 | 5,926 | 4,689 | 7,175 | 10,345 | 9,715 | 9,695 | 8,883 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 4.425 x | 3.026 x | 2.178 x | 3.163 x | 3.776 x | 3.566 x | 3.064 x | 2.56 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | -179 | 490 | 454 | -124 | -2,482 | 2,554 | 645 | 1,247 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | -7.4% | 5.05% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 5.08% | 4.16% | 5.2% | 6.64% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | -3.04% | 2.16% | 4.92% | 5.19% | 2.14% | 1.72% | 1.5% | 2.33% |
| Assets 1 | 16,329 | 15,835 | 15,651 | 19,621 | 26,248 | 27,520 | 43,347 | 42,806 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 1.050 | 1.110 | 1.220 | 1.370 | 1.430 | 1.500 | 1.590 | 1.740 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 0.2300 | 0.3300 | 0.3000 | 0.2600 | 0.2000 | 0.4800 | 0.3700 | 0.4500 |
| Capex 1 | 1,585 | 1,559 | 1,484 | 1,993 | 4,059 | 1,667 | 2,537 | 2,607 |
| Capex / Sales | 31.98% | 28.27% | 24.65% | 28.15% | 33.01% | 12.13% | 17.17% | 16% |
| Announcement Date | 3/25/19 | 3/23/20 | 3/23/21 | 3/29/22 | 3/28/23 | 3/25/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
7
Last Close Price
0.5924
CNY
Average target price
0.8896
CNY
Spread / Average Target
+50.16%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.51% | 647M | |
| -2.58% | 367M | |
| -40.54% | 98.27M | |
| -12.90% | 93.62M | |
| -22.76% | 56.92M |
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- Financials China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
