Stock 390 CHINA RAILWAY GROUP LIMITED
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Financials China Railway Group Limited Hong Kong S.E.

Equities

390

CNE1000007Z2

Construction & Engineering

Delayed Hong Kong S.E.
Other stock markets
 09:43:55 2024-05-07 pm EDT 		5-day change 1st Jan Change
3.97 HKD -0.25% Intraday chart for China Railway Group Limited +5.01% +14.37%
May. 03 Congo's $7 bln infrastructure deal with China will depend on copper prices RE
May. 01 Traffic Control Technology's Unit Signs 150 Million Yuan Railway Equipment Installation Deal MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Capitalization 1 139,050 119,432 132,027 129,563 129,985 151,241 - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 204,993 184,721 247,724 280,201 315,647 391,924 453,222 461,788
P/E ratio 6.25 x 5.47 x 5.58 x 4.64 x 4.4 x 4.48 x 4.07 x 3.9 x
Yield 2.85% 3.42% 3.39% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 4% 4.31%
Capitalization / Revenue 0.16 x 0.12 x 0.12 x 0.11 x 0.1 x 0.11 x 0.1 x 0.1 x
EV / Revenue 0.24 x 0.19 x 0.23 x 0.24 x 0.25 x 0.29 x 0.31 x 0.31 x
EV / EBITDA 4.91 x 4.3 x 5.1 x 5.25 x 5.45 x 5.67 x 6.02 x 5.76 x
EV / FCF -11.4 x -17.4 x -6.1 x -17.3 x -17.4 x -317 x 8.64 x 10.8 x
FCF Yield -8.77% -5.75% -16.4% -5.78% -5.75% -0.31% 11.6% 9.23%
Price to Book 0.77 x 0.62 x 0.52 x 0.54 x - 0.45 x 0.41 x 0.38 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 24,570,929 24,570,929 24,570,929 24,752,196 24,752,196 24,750,630 - -
Reference price 2 5.940 5.270 5.790 5.560 5.680 6.610 6.610 6.610
Announcement Date 3/30/20 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/30/23 3/28/24 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Net sales 1 848,440 971,405 1,070,417 1,151,501 1,260,841 1,347,606 1,443,617 1,504,895
EBITDA 1 41,709 42,926 48,559 53,324 57,962 69,126 75,248 80,239
EBIT 1 31,882 33,578 38,782 43,049 46,282 52,043 56,701 59,166
Operating Margin 3.76% 3.46% 3.62% 3.74% 3.67% 3.86% 3.93% 3.93%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 31,332 33,383 37,586 42,583 46,070 50,705 55,397 57,600
Net income 1 23,678 25,188 27,618 31,276 33,483 36,900 40,608 42,156
Net margin 2.79% 2.59% 2.58% 2.72% 2.66% 2.74% 2.81% 2.8%
EPS 2 0.9500 0.9630 1.037 1.198 1.292 1.474 1.626 1.696
Free Cash Flow 1 -17,981 -10,627 -40,643 -16,192 -18,154 -1,234 52,447 42,638
FCF margin -2.12% -1.09% -3.8% -1.41% -1.44% -0.09% 3.63% 2.83%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA) - - - - - - 69.7% 53.14%
FCF Conversion (Net income) - - - - - - 129.15% 101.14%
Dividend per Share 2 0.1690 0.1800 0.1960 0.2000 0.2100 0.2446 0.2642 0.2848
Announcement Date 3/30/20 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/30/23 3/28/24 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December 2019 S2 2020 S1 2020 S2 2021 S1 2021 Q4 2021 S2 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 S1 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
Net sales 488,956 416,303 558,429 498,227 302,492 575,045 266,537 292,867 559,405 288,780 303,316 271,974 317,499 - -
EBITDA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBIT - - 19,751 18,205 11,318 19,640 10,203 10,789 20,992 9,521 12,535 10,751 11,546 - -
Operating Margin - - 3.54% 3.65% 3.74% 3.42% 3.83% 3.68% 3.75% 3.3% 4.13% 3.95% 3.64% - -
Earnings before Tax (EBT) - - 19,514 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net income - - 13,491 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net margin - - 2.42% - - - - - - - - - - - -
EPS 1 - - - - 0.3100 - 0.2940 0.2600 - 0.3200 0.3300 0.3050 0.3000 0.3080 0.3800
Dividend per Share - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Announcement Date 3/30/20 8/28/20 3/30/21 8/30/21 3/30/22 3/30/22 4/30/22 8/30/22 8/30/22 10/28/22 3/30/23 4/28/23 8/30/23 10/30/23 3/28/24
1CNY
Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Net Debt 1 65,943 65,289 115,697 150,639 185,662 240,682 291,946 310,546
Net Cash position 1 - - - - - - - -
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.581 x 1.521 x 2.383 x 2.825 x 3.203 x 3.482 x 3.88 x 3.87 x
Free Cash Flow 1 -17,981 -10,627 -40,643 -16,192 -18,154 -1,235 52,447 -2,047
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) 11.5% 11.9% 10.4% 12.1% 11.8% 10.4% 10.3% 10.1%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) 2.37% 2.23% 2.2% 2.1% 1.95% 1.99% 2.01% 1.99%
Assets 1 999,264 1,127,980 1,255,346 1,487,412 1,721,214 1,856,147 2,022,307 2,123,722
Book Value Per Share 2 7.730 8.490 11.20 10.30 - 14.70 16.00 17.30
Cash Flow per Share 2 0.9000 1.260 0.5300 1.760 1.550 2.260 3.040 2.920
Capex 1 18,258 41,622 53,713 59,744 56,518 64,122 60,253 62,299
Capex / Sales 2.15% 4.28% 5.02% 5.19% 4.48% 4.76% 4.17% 4.14%
Announcement Date 3/30/20 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/30/23 3/28/24 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Railway Group Limited

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
14
Last Close Price
6.61 CNY
Average target price
9.164 CNY
Spread / Average Target
+38.65%
Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

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