Projected Income Statement: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 62,435 70,619 182,008 161,192 210,372 208,527 204,457 198,119
Change - 13.11% 157.73% -11.44% 30.51% -0.88% -1.95% -3.1%
Announcement Date 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/28/23 3/27/24 3/26/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 8,213 16,147 11,696 11,369 16,197 15,640 21,192 19,307
Change - 96.6% -27.57% -2.8% 42.47% -3.44% 35.5% -8.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 836 -2,776 -8,231 22,738 9,567 23,484 18,731 7,854
Change - -432.06% -196.51% 376.25% -57.93% 145.47% -20.24% -58.07%
Announcement Date 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/28/23 3/27/24 3/26/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.66% 11.86% -4.01% 17.46% 21.05% 21.3% 22.44% 23.42%
EBIT Margin (%) -16.9% -14.07% -32.4% 0.55% 4.78% 4.14% 4.57% 5.8%
EBT Margin (%) -16.41% -13.68% -36.24% -0.95% 0.83% 2.48% 5.36% 5.84%
Net margin (%) -11.71% -11.91% -37.56% -2.59% -1.02% 0.78% 3.38% 3.29%
FCF margin (%) 0.9% -2.73% -9.45% 14.22% 5.49% 13.39% 2.85% 4%
FCF / Net Income (%) -7.71% 22.94% 25.17% -549.23% -540.81% 1,726.2% 84.17% 121.59%

Profitability

        
ROA -3.43% -3.73% -10.29% -1.33% -0.55% 0.5% 0.65% 2.56%
ROE -15.77% -17.67% -59.93% -10.64% -4.91% 5.06% 11.17% 15.7%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 6.98x 5.86x -52.18x 5.77x 5.74x 5.54x 4.85x 4.47x
Debt / Free cash flow 74.68x -25.44x -22.11x 7.09x 21.99x 8.82x 10.92x 26.17x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 8.87% 15.89% 13.43% 7.11% 9.3% 12.69% 10.42% 9.83%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 91.87% 133.99% -335.32% 40.72% 44.17% 59.58% 45.22% 41.98%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 982.42% -581.66% -142.1% 50% 169.3% 94.77% 357.42% 245.82%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.5903 0.8286 0.1912 2.215 1.735 1.919 2.34 2.813
Change - 40.37% -76.92% 1,058.37% -21.65% 10.57% 21.98% 20.2%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - 0.00137 0.0327 0.0346
Change - - - - - - 2,283.94% 6.03%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.524 3.99 2.266 2.03 1.916 1.955 2.359 2.83
Change - -11.81% -43.21% -10.41% -5.59% 2% 20.66% 19.99%
EPS 1 -0.77 -0.75 -1.9 -0.23 -0.09 0.0541 0.3513 0.4328
Change - 2.6% -153.33% 87.89% 60.87% 160.08% 549.68% 23.21%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 15,329,302 16,948,417 18,120,890 18,120,906 18,120,912 18,120,922 18,120,922 18,120,922
Announcement Date 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/28/23 3/27/24 3/26/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 137x 21.2x
PBR 3.8x 3.15x
EV / Sales 1.87x 1.81x
Yield 0.02% 0.44%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
-
Quality
-
ESG MSCI
-
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
16
Last Close Price
7.430CNY
Average target price
6.408CNY
Spread / Average Target
-13.76%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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  5. Financials China Southern Airlines Company Limited