Oddo BHF believes that growth in Q3 was rather robust at +8%, with a double-digit increase for Maisons Joaillères. The analyst confirms his Outperform recommendation and raises his price target to 135 Swiss francs (from 130 Swiss francs).

' Q3 group sales came to 5,593 ME, i.e. +4% y/y and +8% y/y cc (Q2 was +5%). We were expecting overall growth of +7.2% in Q3 (sales forecast at 5,554 ME), while the Visible Alpha consensus was c.+6%, with sales estimated at 5,493 ME', stresses the research firm. The publication therefore shows a positive surprise of +1%/+2%.

By division, Maisons Joaillères came out at +12% y/y c.i.d. for Q3 to 3,952 ME after +9% in Q2 (we were expecting +9%), Horlogers Spécialisés at +3% to 939 ME after -4% in Q2 (we were expecting +3%).

The analyst has raised his growth forecast for Q4 from +0% to +2% y/y cc with
Jewelry Houses at +3% versus +0%, which leads the analyst to raise his March 2024 full-year forecast by +1% for sales and EBIT.

Our forecast scenario for subsequent years changes only marginally. Growth expected at +6.0% cc for March 2025 (Maisons Joaillères at +7%) and +6.6% for March 2026 (Maisons Joaillères at +7.5%). Group EBIT margin expected at 23.8% for March 2025 compared with the March 2024 forecast raised from 23.3% to 23.4%, March 2026 margin expected at 24.8%' adds Oddo BHF.

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