Financials Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.

Equities

5021

JP3298000005

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
7,545 ^JPY	+2.08%		+1.44%	+33.16%

Apr. 24	Cosmo Energy, Iwatani to Forge Renewable Energy Partnership	MT
Mar. 29	Cosmo Energy Holdings in Talks on Potential Capital, Business Partnership With Iwatani Corp.	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	187,500	127,833	220,692	220,294	374,609	660,848	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	832,163	756,150	777,092	723,624	956,509	1,156,208	1,114,519	1,101,408
P/E ratio	3.53 x	-4.54 x	2.57 x	1.59 x	5.28 x	9.03 x	9.05 x	8.17 x
Yield	3.6%	5.26%	3.03%	3.8%	3.5%	3.98%	3.93%	3.98%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.07 x	0.05 x	0.1 x	0.09 x	0.13 x	0.25 x	0.26 x	0.26 x
EV / Revenue	0.3 x	0.28 x	0.35 x	0.3 x	0.34 x	0.44 x	0.43 x	0.43 x
EV / EBITDA	5.88 x	11.9 x	5.02 x	2.5 x	4.31 x	6.05 x	5.59 x	5.21 x
EV / FCF	48 x	27.5 x	9.39 x	17.7 x	-13.1 x	13.4 x	18 x	37.5 x
FCF Yield	2.08%	3.64%	10.7%	5.65%	-7.64%	7.46%	5.55%	2.67%
Price to Book	0.67 x	0.53 x	0.68 x	0.48 x	0.71 x	1.12 x	1.03 x	0.94 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	84,308	84,045	83,691	83,762	87,423	87,588	-	-
Reference price ²	2,224	1,521	2,637	2,630	4,285	7,545	7,545	7,545
Announcement Date	5/9/19	5/21/20	5/13/21	5/12/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	2,770,365	2,738,003	2,233,300	2,440,452	2,791,872	2,638,753	2,567,770	2,581,495
EBITDA ¹	141,405	63,566	154,853	289,256	221,980	191,245	199,395	211,339
EBIT ¹	94,653	13,893	101,300	235,303	163,780	146,297	146,138	155,823
Operating Margin	3.42%	0.51%	4.54%	9.64%	5.87%	5.54%	5.69%	6.04%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	95,966	13,913	93,648	211,593	153,263	145,822	143,001	154,582
Net income ¹	53,100	-28,155	85,900	138,890	67,935	76,257	70,506	74,948
Net margin	1.92%	-1.03%	3.85%	5.69%	2.43%	2.89%	2.75%	2.9%
EPS ²	630.7	-334.8	1,026	1,659	811.2	835.9	833.5	923.2
Free Cash Flow ¹	17,348	27,503	82,800	40,850	-73,100	86,250	61,890	29,391
FCF margin	0.63%	1%	3.71%	1.67%	-2.62%	3.27%	2.41%	1.14%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	12.27%	43.27%	53.47%	14.12%	-	45.1%	31.04%	13.91%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	32.67%	-	96.39%	29.41%	-	113.1%	87.78%	39.22%
Dividend per Share ²	80.00	80.00	80.00	100.0	150.0	300.0	296.4	300.0
Announcement Date	5/9/19	5/21/20	5/13/21	5/12/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	1,321,483	969,359	566,033	1,095,664	652,977	691,811	662,434	709,159	1,371,593	724,498	695,781	608,613	699,851	1,308,464	704,735	623,200	560,700	653,300	693,650	654,200
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	26,163	8,691	45,189	93,397	52,718	89,188	123,880	49,009	172,889	-19,985	10,876	7,064	68,848	75,912	25,749	41,533	32,950	41,100	29,300	44,700
Operating Margin	1.98%	0.9%	7.98%	8.52%	8.07%	12.89%	18.7%	6.91%	12.6%	-2.76%	1.56%	1.16%	9.84%	5.8%	3.65%	6.66%	5.88%	6.29%	4.22%	6.83%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	37,796	5,770	43,535	94,115	49,787	67,691	124,833	-	174,562	-20,108	-	16,352	-	88,629	23,632	-	31,600	36,000	31,600	44,900
Net income ¹	14,902	-910	24,082	51,996	27,905	58,989	77,566	17,319	94,885	-32,769	5,819	-7,248	43,332	36,084	9,757	27,650	17,450	22,000	15,800	13,500
Net margin	1.13%	-0.09%	4.25%	4.75%	4.27%	8.53%	11.71%	2.44%	6.92%	-4.52%	0.84%	-1.19%	6.19%	2.76%	1.38%	4.44%	3.11%	3.37%	2.28%	2.06%
EPS ²	177.2	-10.87	287.6	621.1	333.2	704.4	938.3	-	1,166	-414.4	-	-83.05	496.0	413.0	111.3	430.4	216.9	294.3	178.6	59.90
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	75.00	-	-	-	-	150.0	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/7/19	11/12/20	11/9/21	11/9/21	2/10/22	5/12/22	8/10/22	11/10/22	11/10/22	2/9/23	5/11/23	8/10/23	11/8/23	11/8/23	2/8/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	644,663	628,317	556,400	503,330	581,900	495,359	453,670	440,560
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	4.559 x	9.884 x	3.593 x	1.74 x	2.621 x	2.59 x	2.275 x	2.085 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	17,348	27,503	82,800	40,850	-73,100	86,250	61,890	29,391
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	20.4%	-10.8%	30.4%	35.6%	13.8%	13.5%	12.2%	12.6%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.7%	0.97%	5.82%	12.8%	8.11%	3.22%	3.25%	3.46%
Assets ¹	932,071	-2,888,996	1,477,151	1,086,652	838,150	2,369,456	2,166,967	2,164,667
Book Value Per Share ²	3,334	2,853	3,883	5,446	6,042	6,754	7,312	8,001
Cash Flow per Share	1,186	256.0	1,665	2,303	1,453	-	-	-
Capex ¹	73,102	78,122	79,600	57,064	71,941	87,250	106,220	104,420
Capex / Sales	2.64%	2.85%	3.56%	2.34%	2.58%	3.31%	4.14%	4.04%
Announcement Date	5/9/19	5/21/20	5/13/21	5/12/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

7,545 JPY

Average target price

7,368 JPY

Spread / Average Target

-2.34%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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