Earnings Conference Call Fourth Quarter 2019

Peru's political environment has changed little since the last Conference Call

  1. Following the dissolution of Congress by President Vizcarra on September 30, 2019, Congressional elections were held on January 26, 2020:
  • A fragmented Congress: 9 political parties hold seats in Congress
  • A simple majority requires 66 votes while absolute majority requires 87 votes (requires consensus between several parties to pass legislation).

9

Acción Popular

25

9

Alianza para el Progreso

11

Fuerza Popular

130

Frepap

Unión por el Perú

11

seats

22

Somos Perú

13

Podemos Perú

15

15

Partido Morado

Frente Amplio

  • Political analysts expect a better relationship between Congress and the Executive branch. The new congress is not expected to be a threat to Peru's macroeconomic fundamentals.
  1. Measures taken by Executive branch to bolster public investment:
  • The executive branch has issued decrees to bolster public investment such as:
    • The reactivation of paralyzed projects.
    • Measures to increase execution levels of prioritized infrastructure projects
    • Prioritized public investment regime (executive director assigned, PMO and other methodologies, etc).
    • Loosening the fiscal deficit rule to reach 1% of GDP target by 2024 instead of 2021.
  • Estimates suggest a strong rebound of public investment in 2020 (around 8%)

Source: ONPE, El Peruano, PCM, Ministry of Finance

2

Peru remains one of the most dynamic economies of the region

III) Economic activity decelerated during 4Q19:

  • Our estimates suggest GDP expanded below 2% y/y in 4Q19. With this result GDP expanded 2.0% in 2019. The lackluster result of 2019 is attributable mainly to a decline in primary sectors and public investment. Nonetheless, non-primary GDP grew around 3%
  • For 2020 we expect GDP to advance 3.0%. This recovery will mostly be attributable to a rebound in the primary sectors and public investment.
  • Peru is still expected to remain one of the most dynamic economies of the region.

Chart 1: Peru: GDP and Non-primary GDP

8.0

(% change YoY) (1)

GDP

Non-Primary GDP

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

3Q19

4Q19e

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

Chart 2: LatAm: 2020 GDP growth forecast -

consensus analysts(% change YoY) (2)

Colombia

3.2

Perú

3.1

Brasil

2.2

Chile

1.7

México

1.0

Ecuador

0.3

Argentina -1.5

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Chart 3: Peru: Banking Sector loans by type

(% change YoY, nominal) (3)

26.0

22.0

Companies

Consumer

Mortgage

Total

18.0

14.8

14.0

10.0

8.7

6.0

6.0

2.0

2.9

-2.0

Mar-15

Jun-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Mar-17

Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Mar-19Jun-19

Dec-14

Sep-15

Dec-15

Sep-16

Dec-16

Sep-18

Dec-18

Sep-19

Dec-19

  1. Source: BCRP, 4Q19 considers actual data for October and November, and an estimate for December.
  2. Source: Latinfocus (Jan-20)

(3) Source: Asbanc.

3

Overview - Credicorp's Lines of Business (LoBs)

Universal Banking

Stand-alone

Bolivia

FY2019 Contribution(1)

74.2%

1.8%

ROAE

FY 2018

20.3%

11.8%

FY 2019

20.4%

11.0%

BCP Stand-alone:

  • Growth driven by Retail Banking boosted Risk-adjusted NIM
  • Competition and reduced credit demand in Wholesale Banking
  • Transformation investments increased while maintaining cost management focus, thus the Efficiency ratio improved in 100 bps

BCP Bolivia:

  • Loan growth and improvement in efficiency as BCP Bolivia marked its 25th year anniversary

Microfinance

FY2019 Contribution(1)

9.2%

0.1%

ROAE

FY 2018

25.9%

9.1%

FY 2019

20.1%

8.9%

  • Downward pressure on margins due to competition and focus on clients with lower risk-profile: NIM dropped 76 bps
  • Focus on fine-tuning risk and collections models has already generated improvements as Cost of Risk decreased 47 bps
  • Migration to Hybrid model: leverage the use of data&analytics
  • Efficiency ratio deteriorated as we built capabilities to sustain business growth: increase in headcount, mainly in salesforce
  • Finalized the acquisition of Bancompartir (Colombia)

Insurance & Pension Funds

FY2019 Contribution(1)

8.8%

4.6%

ROAE

FY 2018

12.9%(2)

22.3%

FY 2019

14.0%(2)

29.5%

Pacifico:

  • Increase in underwriting result and net interest income in the P&C business
  • Operating expenses grew less than operating income
  • Higher net claims in the life business, attributable to D&S policies

Prima AFP:

  • Increase in profitability due to growth in operating income and in the profitability of the legal reserve

Investment Banking & Wealth Management

FY2019 Contribution(1)

1.0%

4.4%

ROAE

FY 2018

4.6%

13.5%

FY 2019

6.5%

26.1%

  • Proprietary portfolios had a good run in a context of good market conditions, both trading and available-for-sale portfolios performed well
  • Expansion in the product portfolio for Wealth Management clients

continued, especially in Colombia and Chile

  • Corporate Finance activity in 2019 was slower than iin 2018. However, 4Q19 income was higher than that of previous quarters
  • Completed acquisition of Ultraserfinco and started merging operations

(1)

Contribution calculated with Credicorp's Net income, which includes Others (Grupo Credito, Atlantic Security Holding Corporation and others Holdings of Credicorp Ltd).

(2)

Figures include unrealized gains or losses that are considered in Pacifico's Net Equity from the investment portfolio of Pacifico Vida. ROAE excluding such unrealized gains was

4

16.1% for 2018 and 16.5% for 2019.

Quarterly and Full Year 2019 Highlights

Profitability

Quarterly

FY 2019

QoQ

YoY

Net Income

S/ 973

S/ 4,265

▼-11.0%▲+1.7%

▲+7.1%

ROAE

14.9%

17.0%

▼-220 bps ▼-140 bps

▼-50 bps

ROAA

2.1%

2.3%

▼-30 bps

▼-10 bps

0 bps

Margins

Quarterly

FY 2019

QoQ

YoY

Net Interest

S/ 2,354

S/ 9,077

Income

▲+3.4%

▲+4.9%

▲+6.9%

NIM

5.46%

5.39%

▲+6 bps ▼-18bps

▲+11 bps

Risk Adj.

4.27%

4.29%

NIM

▲+6 bps ▼-35bps

▼-4 bps

* Average daily balance

Loan Portfolio

Quarterly

FY 2019

QoQ

YoY

Loans

S/ 114,626

S/ 110,799

(ADB)*

▲+2.7%

▲+6.0%

▲+6.6%

CoR

1.77%

1.60%

▼+-2bps

▲+30 bps

▲+22 bps

NPL

3.88%

▼-19 bps

▼-9 bps

Efficiency and Solvency

Quarterly

FY 2019

QoQ

YoY

Efficiency

45.7%

43.5%

▲+250 bps ▲+20 bps

▼-30 bps

CET1 BCP

12.35%

▲+13 bps ▲+34 bps

5

Earnings were boosted by universal banking businesses but were partially offset by results at the Holding level and in Microfinance

Profitability

FY 2019

Net Income

S/ 4,265

▲+7.1%

ROAE

17.0%

▼-50 bps

ROAA

2.3%

0 bps

3,984

305

Chart 1: Net Income Evolution (in million S/)

WHT (89)

Krealo (18)

4,265

Other (31)

(138)

(1)

(2)

Chart 2: ROAE Evolution

(1)

(2)

(1)

IB & WM stand for Investment Banking & Weath Management LoB.

(2)

WHT stands for withholding tax. Other include earnings from other subsidiaries and eliminations for consolidation purposes.

6

Loan growth led by BCP's Stand-alone Retail Banking portfolio

Chart 1: Loan portfolio in average daily balances

Chart 2: Retail Banking segment growth

(figures in S/ million)

(volume growth in %)

FY growth: 6,880 (6.6%)

513

476

110,799

4,626

+5.1%

+5.4%

1,266

103,919

+11.6%

+ 4,626

67% share of total growth

3.4% 18.4%

19.0%

19.2%

SME-Business (+3% 19/18)

SME-Pyme (+10% 19/18)

Credit Card (+19% 19/18)

Consumer (+12% 19/18)

+2.8%

Credicorp

Wholesale

Retail Banking

Mibanco

Bolivia +

Credicorp

FY2018

Banking

ASB

FY2019

40.1%

Mortgage (+13% 19/18)

Retail Banking

Growth C ontribution

Retail Banking in BCP Stand- alone continued to lead loan growth in average daily balances

Loan expansion mainly in local currency and in higher margin segments improves our loan portfolio mix.

7

Deposits drove growth in Credicorp's funding structure, mainly through BCP Stand-alone

Chart 1: Evolution of Funding Structure

(S/ million, Year-End Balance)

12 bps

2.37%

2.25%

FY19 / FY18

2.50%

▲ 4.2%

142,100

2.00%

Funding cost

136,322

FY19 / FY18

1.50%

Chart 2: Deposits by type

(S/ million, Year-End Balance)

  • 7.1%
    FY19 / FY18

112,005

104,551

76.7%

78.8%

1.00% 0.50%Total Deposits

0.00%

30.7%

31.3%

31.3%31.6%

Demand deposits

(+5.2% FY19 / FY18)

Savings deposits

(+7.9% FY19 / FY18)

3.8%

1.9%

3.1%

1.3%

6.2%

6.3%

11.3%

10.5%

2018

2019

-0.50%BCRP Instruments

Repurchase agreements -1.00% Due to banks and

correspondents -1.50%Bonds and notes

issued -2.00%

30.1%30.6%

7.3%7.1%

20182019

Time deposits

(+8.7% FY19 / FY18)

Severance indemnity deposits

(+8.7% FY19 / FY18)

  • In 2019, Deposits' share of total funding increased 210 bps, while wholesale funding sources such as Bonds and BCRP Instruments registered a decrease in their share.
  • 2019 funding cost increased 12 bps mainly due to the currency mix effect, since LC funding growth accounts for 90% of the total funding volume growth
  • Deposits growth was mainly driven by Times and Savings deposits, which grew 8.7% and 7.9% respectively
  • Growth in Savings deposits is mainly driven by individuals; in 2019, 50% of total saving accounts were opened through self-service and digital channels vs. 43% in 2018.

8

Cost of Risk increased, mainly through Retail Banking at BCP Stand-alone

Chart 1: NPL, IOL, and Cost of Risk Evolution

3.92%

3.97%

3.65%

3.41%

3.00%

2.81%

2.76%

2.56%

2.08%

1.88%

1.78%

1.38%

2015

2016

2017

2018

Chart 2: Evolution of Cost of Risk +22pbs

  1. NPL ratio: (Internal overdue loans and refinanced loans) / Total loans (Quarter-end balances)
  2. IOL ratio: (Overdue loans and loans under legal collection) / Total loans (Quarter-end balances)
  3. Includes BCP Bolivia, Encumbra, Bancompartir, ASB and eliminations for consolidation purposes.

3.88%

(1)

NPL Ratio

2.85%

Internal Overdue

(2)

Loans (IOL) ratio

Cost of Risk

1.60%

2019

Consumer: Growth in Digital loans

  • Credit Card: Higher system-wideindebtedness
  • SME-Pyme: Deterioration in fixed assets loans

Wholesale: Construction clients

improvement

9

Risk-Adjusted NIM decreased 4bps in 2019 given that the improvement in BCP Stand-alone was offset by deterioration at Mibanco.

Chart 1: NIM evolution

Chart 2: Risk-adjusted NIM evolution

10

Non-Financial Income positively impacted by gains on Securities

8.4% 4.6% 8.4% 16.8.4%4.6% 4.6% 16.6% 16.6% 8.4% 4.6%

16.6% 70.4%

9.2%

Others

9.6%

Others

Chart 1: Evolution of non-financial9.2% income structure (S/ million)

8.5%

11.8%

Others

9.2%

9.6%

▲ 11.1%

4,902

9.6%

11.8%

Net gain on securities

FY19 / FY18

8.5%

14.8%

(1)

11.8%

15.8%

4,411

9.3%

Others

8.5%

9.2%

Net gain on securities

15.8%

8.5%

14.8%

9.5%

9.6%

14.8%

Net gain on securities

15.8%

3.9%

11.8%

8.5%

16.7%

▲ 1.4%

15.3%

Net gain on foreign

FY19 / FY18

Net gain on securities

14.8%

15.8%

exchange transactions

64.2%

Net gain on foreign exchange

66.1%

Net gain on foreign exchange

transactions

70.4% 70.4%

70.4% 3Q18

66.1% 66.1%

70.9%

66.1% 2Q19

64.2%

64.2%

▲ 3.4%

65.9%

FY19 / FY18

64.2%

3Q19

transactions Fee income

Net gain on foreign exchange Fee income transactions Fee income

3Q18 3Q18

Fee income

2Q19

3Q19

2Q19

3Q19

3Q18

FY 2018

FY 2019

2Q19

3Q19

Chart 2: Fee income FY evolution by subsidiary (S/ million)

+3.4% 2019 vs 2018

+16.0%

+39.8%

-14.6%

+6.2%

-2.9%

FY19 / FY18

FY19 / FY18

FY19 / FY18

3,233

FY19 / FY18

FY19 / FY18

3,127

+3.3%

FY19 / FY18

  1. Others includes Net gain from associates, Net gain on derivatives held for trading, Net gain from exchange differences and Others
  2. Others and eliminations includes: Encumbra, Bancompartir, Grupo Pacifico and eliminations for consolidation purposes. Around 70% of the increase of Others and eliminations

(30 millions) are due to adjustments between Grupo Pacifico and BCP Stand- alone & Mibanco for the increase in sales through the Bancassurance channels.

11

The efficiency ratio improved 30 basis points

Efficiency ratio FY - 19 vs FY - 18 evolution by subsidiary

SISCO IV (1)

70 bps

30 bps

BCP Stand-alone

Net interest income

40 bps

Mibanco

Salaries and Net interest income

Grupo Pacifico

Net earned premiums

Investment

Banking & Wealth

Salaries

Management

(1)

SISCO IV: Disability, survivorship and burial expenses policies for the Private Pension Fund System

12

(2)

Others includes: Credicorp Capital, Prima AFP, BCP Bolivia, ASB, Grupo Credito, among other subsidiaries and the eliminations for consolidation purposes.

BCP Stand-alone continues to progress in its digital distribution strategy, which is focused on customer EXperience and EFficiency

Chart 1: Digital Clients (1)

Chart 3: Digital Sales Evolution (2)

(% of total clients)

(thousand of units, % of total units)

+57%

3.3 Millions

▲ 2.4x

1,180

% of digital sales by product

FY

FY

2.1 Millions

FY 19 / FY 18

3.2%

Advance on

2018

2019

41%

1

25%

46%

31%

wages

24%

+20pp

2.0%

21%

490

13%

Savings

0.3%

6%

2

account

0%

1.3%

6%

7.8%

opening

4.4%

3

Consumer

44%

49%

2016

2017

2018

2019

FY 2018

FY 2019

Loans

Advance on wages

Consumer loans

Others

2021 Goal

Chart 2: EAP pre approved credits

Chart 4: Yape total users

(% of clients that qualify for a credit)

(millions of users)

10 million

users

36%

1.48

1.95

1.09

+513%

14%

0.70

17%

0.27

0.38

0.17

0.21

FY 2017

FY 2018

FY 2019

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18 4Q18

1Q19 2Q19

3Q19 4Q19

(1)

Consumer Banking Customers who conducts 50% of their monetary transactions online; or conducts 50% of their non-monetary transactions online; or buys products online in the last 12 months

(2)

Total sales were 8.0 and 9.0 millions in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Digital sales include mobile and internet banking.

13

In the long run, Credicorp consistently presents strong results despite variations in economic cyles

Chart 1: ROAE and GDP Growth evolution

Chart 2: ROAA evolution

Chart 3: ROAE evolution

14

Corporate Governance Developments

Credicorp is working to bolster the Company's governance framework with two objectives:

  • Maintaining governance structures which help drive long-term stakeholder value
  • Demonstrating leadership on corporate governance within our operating region

Summary of Governance Changes

From April 2020, Credicorp will reconstitute the committee structure to migrate from 7 committees to 4:

Simplify

Board of Directors

Committee

Risk

Compensation

Nominations

Corporate

Audit

Executive

Investment

Governance

Structure

Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

1

2

3

4

Increase

Committee

Independence

Redefine

Independence

Criteria

Expand Board

Size

Enhance

Controls

  • After the election of Board members at the Annual General Meeting, the Chairman will participate at the Risk Committee and the Compensation & Nominations Committee, although not as the chairperson
  • The Board has designated the Corporate Governance Committee this task, to ensure that we meet the highest international standards for good practice
  • For the upcoming annual meeting in March, Management will submit a proposal to expand the size of the board from 8 to 9 directors
  • Credicorp proposes this expansion in order to enhance the independence and diversity of its directors, expanding the skills and experiences represented
  • In order to enhance our internal controls, the Board designated the CFO the task of instituting more stringent policies and procedures at the Holding companies

15

Guidance FY 2020

Guidance Credicorp Ltd. Full Year 2020

Macroeconomic indicators

Real GDP growth %

Domestic demand real growth% Private investment growth % BCRP reference rate year-end Inflation %

Exchange rate Year-end (Soles / US Dollar)

Credicorp Financials

Loan growth

(average daily balances - ADB)

Cost of Risk

Net interest margin (NIM)

Risk-adjusted NIM

Efficiency ratio

BCP Stand-alone CET1

ROAE

Sustainable ROAE

2019

Full year 2019

FY Guidance

≈2.5 - 3.0%

2.0%

≈2.5 - 3.0%

2.4%

≈1.5 - 3.5%

4.0%

2.25%

2.25%

2.0%

- 2.2%

1.9%

≈3.35 - 3.40

3.31

2019

Full year 2019

FY Guidance

6%

- 8%

6.6%

1.4%

- 1.6%

1.6%

5.3%

- 5.6%

5.4%

4.3%

- 4.6%

4.3%

Stable (full year 2018:

43.5%

43.8%)

No less than 11% in

No less than 11% every 1Q

each 1Q

(quarter in

(quarter in which we reflect

which we reflect the

the declaration of dividends

declaration of dividends

each

each year).

year).

17.5%

- 18.5%

17.0%

≈19.00%

N.A.

2020

FY Guidance

≈3.0%

≈2.5% - 3.0% ≈0.0% - 2.0% ≈2.0% - 2.25% ≈2.0% - 2.2%

≈3.35 - 3.40

2020

FY Guidance

8% - 10%

1.6% -1.8%

5.4% - 5.7%

4.3% - 4.6%

Stable

No less than 11% every

1Q (quarter in which

we reflect the declaration of dividends each year).

16.0% - 18.0%

≈19.0%

16

Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements

This material includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements other than statements of historical information provided herein are forward-looking and may contain information about financial results, economic conditions, trends and known uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are neither historical facts nor assurances of future performance. Instead, they are based only on the Company's current beliefs, expectations and assumptions regarding the future of our business, future plans and strategies, projections, anticipated events and trends, the economy and other future conditions.

Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as: "anticipate", "intend", "plan", "goal", "seek", "believe", "project", "estimate", "expect", "strategy", "future", "likely", "may", "should", "will" and similar references to future periods. Examples of forward-looking statements include, among others, statements or estimates we make regarding guidance relating to Return on Average Equity, Sustainable Return on Average Equity, Cost of Risk, Loan growth, Efficiency ratio, BCP Stand-alone Common Equity Tier 1 Capital ratio and Net Interest Margin, current or future volatility in the credit markets and future market conditions, expected macroeconomic conditions, our belief that we have sufficient liquidity to fund our business operations during the next year, expectations of the effect on our financial condition of claims, litigation, environmental costs, contingent liabilities and governmental and regulatory investigations and proceedings, strategy for customer retention, growth, product development, market position, financial results and reserves and strategy for risk management.

The Company cautions readers that actual results could differ materially from those expected by the Company, depending on the outcome of certain factors, including, without limitation: (1) adverse changes in the Peruvian economy with respect to the rates of inflation, economic growth, currency devaluation, and other factors, (2) adverse changes in the Peruvian political situation, including, without limitation, the reversal of market-oriented reforms and economic recovery measures, or the failure of such measures and reforms to achieve their goals, and (3) adverse changes in the markets in which the Company operates, including increased competition, decreased demand for financial services, and other factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. Our actual results and financial condition may differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Therefore, you should not rely on any of these forward-looking statements.

Any forward-looking statement made in this material is based only on information currently available to the Company and speaks only as of the date on which it is made. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements which may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof, including, without limitation, changes in the Company's business strategy or planned capital expenditures, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

17

Earnings Conference Call Fourth Quarter 2019

Attachments

  • Original document
  • Permalink

Disclaimer

Credicorp Ltd. published this content on 06 February 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 06 February 2020 14:02:00 UTC