ECOPETROL S.A. |
End-of-day quote
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 2,300 COP | -0.22% |
|
+2.68% | -1.71% |
| Apr. 23 | Colombia predicts $10 billion in foreign investment from Europe this year-minister | RE |
| Apr. 18 | Goldman Sachs Raises Price Target on Ecopetrol to $11.90 From $10.30, Maintains Neutral Rating | MT |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 136,301,843 | 92,306,980 | 110,603,909 | 99,502,401 | 96,213,066 | 94,568,398 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 165,841,206 | 131,760,980 | 189,487,781 | 198,074,055 | 96,213,066 | 176,211,570 | 175,494,889 | 167,953,395 |
| P/E ratio | 10.3 x | 58.2 x | 6.63 x | 3.15 x | - | 5.47 x | 5.47 x | 5.7 x |
| Yield | 5.43% | 0.76% | 9.03% | 20.1% | - | 15.6% | 15.5% | 13.7% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 1.92 x | 1.85 x | 1.21 x | 0.62 x | 0.67 x | 0.69 x | 0.71 x | 0.72 x |
| EV / Revenue | 2.34 x | 2.63 x | 2.07 x | 1.24 x | 0.67 x | 1.29 x | 1.31 x | 1.28 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.33 x | 7.82 x | 4.52 x | 2.63 x | 1.58 x | 3.06 x | 3.1 x | 3.09 x |
| EV / FCF | 11.9 x | -71.6 x | 19.6 x | 12.8 x | - | 6.19 x | 9.63 x | 8.98 x |
| FCF Yield | 8.38% | -1.4% | 5.11% | 7.83% | - | 16.2% | 10.4% | 11.1% |
| Price to Book | - | - | 1.54 x | 1.15 x | - | 1.01 x | - | - |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 3,315 | 2,245 | 2,690 | 2,420 | 2,340 | 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,300 |
| Announcement Date | 2/26/20 | 2/23/21 | 3/1/22 | 2/28/23 | 2/29/24 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 70,846,769 | 50,027,000 | 91,744,000 | 159,474,000 | 143,079,000 | 136,419,989 | 133,878,531 | 131,054,029 |
| EBITDA 1 | 31,108,000 | 16,840,000 | 41,967,000 | 75,244,000 | 60,718,000 | 57,613,001 | 56,699,761 | 54,374,966 |
| EBIT 1 | 22,163,000 | 7,633,000 | 29,594,000 | 60,381,000 | 43,746,000 | 44,834,785 | 42,816,054 | 39,978,097 |
| Operating Margin | 31.28% | 15.26% | 32.26% | 37.86% | 30.57% | 32.87% | 31.98% | 30.51% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 19,099,000 | 4,710,000 | 26,322,000 | 54,026,000 | 36,788,000 | 34,536,427 | 37,790,191 | 39,381,008 |
| Net income 1 | 13,251,000 | 1,688,000 | 16,695,000 | 33,406,000 | 19,062,000 | 16,003,436 | 15,985,374 | 14,463,161 |
| Net margin | 18.7% | 3.37% | 18.2% | 20.95% | 13.32% | 11.73% | 11.94% | 11.04% |
| EPS 2 | 322.3 | 38.60 | 406.0 | 768.7 | - | 420.2 | 420.3 | 403.3 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 13,900,915 | -1,839,000 | 9,685,405 | 15,504,000 | - | 28,480,000 | 18,233,000 | 18,702,000 |
| FCF margin | 19.62% | -3.68% | 10.56% | 9.72% | - | 20.88% | 13.62% | 14.27% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 44.69% | - | 23.08% | 20.6% | - | 49.43% | 32.16% | 34.39% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 104.9% | - | 58.01% | 46.41% | - | 177.96% | 114.06% | 129.31% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 180.0 | 17.00 | 243.0 | 487.0 | - | 358.3 | 356.9 | 315.8 |
| Announcement Date | 2/26/20 | 2/23/21 | 3/1/22 | 2/28/23 | 2/29/24 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 Q3 | 2021 Q4 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 23,333,000 | 31,761,000 | 32,473,000 | 43,885,000 | 43,438,336 | 39,678,000 | 38,853,579 | 34,300,183 | 35,130,000 | 34,794,000 | 33,132,045 | 35,395,055 | 34,969,783 | 34,478,872 |
| EBITDA 1 | 10,371,000 | 13,981,000 | 15,896,000 | 22,211,000 | 21,142,000 | 15,996,000 | 17,842,000 | 14,585,000 | 16,038,000 | 12,251,000 | 13,190,024 | 14,535,000 | 14,243,000 | 14,411,000 |
| EBIT 1 | 7,104,000 | 10,423,000 | 12,530,000 | 18,608,000 | 17,222,000 | 12,016,000 | 13,721,000 | 10,499,000 | 11,816,000 | 7,700,000 | 10,152,718 | 11,227,476 | 10,929,269 | 10,346,615 |
| Operating Margin | 30.45% | 32.82% | 38.59% | 42.4% | 39.65% | 30.28% | 35.31% | 30.61% | 33.64% | 22.13% | 30.64% | 31.72% | 31.25% | 30.01% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 6,518,000 | 9,106,000 | - | - | 15,587,000 | 10,377,000 | 12,557,000 | - | - | 4,326,000 | 7,546,000 | 10,351,000 | 8,546,000 | 9,003,000 |
| Net income 1 | 3,807,000 | 6,077,000 | 6,573,000 | 10,470,000 | 9,513,000 | 6,851,000 | 5,660,000 | 4,087,000 | 5,086,000 | 4,228,000 | 4,487,340 | 4,474,227 | 4,678,733 | 3,820,486 |
| Net margin | 16.32% | 19.13% | 20.24% | 23.86% | 21.9% | 17.27% | 14.57% | 11.92% | 14.48% | 12.15% | 13.54% | 12.64% | 13.38% | 11.08% |
| EPS 2 | 92.60 | 147.8 | - | 254.6 | 231.4 | 122.8 | 137.7 | 99.40 | 123.7 | - | 104.2 | 116.9 | 107.5 | 91.66 |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 11/9/21 | 3/1/22 | 5/11/22 | 8/3/22 | 11/8/22 | 2/28/23 | 5/10/23 | 8/8/23 | 11/7/23 | 2/29/24 | - | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 29,539,363 | 39,454,000 | 78,883,872 | 98,571,654 | - | 81,643,172 | 80,926,491 | 73,384,997 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 0.9496 x | 2.343 x | 1.88 x | 1.31 x | - | 1.417 x | 1.427 x | 1.35 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 13,900,915 | -1,839,000 | 9,685,405 | 15,504,000 | - | 28,480,000 | 18,233,000 | 18,702,000 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 24.2% | 3.11% | 27% | 43.2% | - | 22.2% | 21% | 18% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 10.3% | 1.23% | 8.7% | 12.3% | - | 11.8% | 6.91% | 6.72% |
| Assets 1 | 129,262,159 | 137,436,900 | 191,837,016 | 272,608,575 | - | 135,875,665 | 231,504,324 | 215,321,743 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | - | - | 1,745 | 2,095 | - | 2,285 | - | - |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 674.0 | 223.0 | 548.0 | 881.0 | - | 1,764 | - | - |
| Capex 1 | 13,810,852 | 11,026,000 | 12,850,616 | 20,731,000 | - | 22,921,528 | 21,807,824 | 19,801,850 |
| Capex / Sales | 19.49% | 22.04% | 14.01% | 13% | - | 16.8% | 16.29% | 15.11% |
| Announcement Date | 2/26/20 | 2/23/21 | 3/1/22 | 2/28/23 | 2/29/24 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
8
Last Close Price
2,300
COP
Average target price
2,629
COP
Spread / Average Target
+14.29%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.71% | 24.03B | |
| +11.22% | 306B | |
| +12.21% | 153B | |
| +51.38% | 124B | |
| +22.70% | 83.43B | |
| +12.20% | 78.06B | |
| +19.56% | 62.81B | |
| +13.52% | 60.08B | |
| +12.74% | 49.91B | |
| +33.97% | 37.05B |
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