In light of claims that Rovuma basin liquid natural gas finds will uplift local communities in
Since
On
Both the government and mining companies routinely emphasise the enormous economic opportunity the LNG projects will bring to
In reality, however, mining operations have routinely failed to benefit local communities. Many such projects have created unmet economic expectations, generated human rights violations, reinforced ethno-religious inequalities and dispossessed local communities of their land.
In the case of Cabo Delgado, several analysts and President
Unemployment and poverty alone do not predict the emergence of violent extremist organisations. Several studies show that relative deprivation, perceptions of marginalisation and discrimination, violation of human rights and a history of hostility between identity groups are far more relevant in predicting where such groups will emerge and how they will recruit from local populations.
But when mining companies enter regions where these issues are already present, they can greatly aggravate them.
The dark side of coal mining
In
In 2015,
In 2011,
The study found: "In addition to food and water insecurity and the loss of supplementary income, the stress and trauma associated with forced displacement has fractured social networks and eroded trust between community members, local leaders, and company and government representatives.
"Uncertainty about the future, limited access to information and deficiencies in remedy processes further diminish the likelihood of recovery in a low-capacity environment."
Unsurprisingly, there have been several major protests by affected communities, many of them violent.
Ruby ructions in Montepuez
In
In
MRM subsequently won mining rights to a 34,000ha concession.
Over the next three years, multiple instances came to light of artisanal miners allegedly being beaten, shot and buried alive by the Mozambican police, the country's environment protection agency and private security companies.
There were also cases of local communities being forcibly removed from their land and of villages being razed to make way for MRM mining activities.
In 2018, while denying liability,
The company then agreed to pay £5.8m to settle a case, brought before the
Back in
Fallout in the
In 2010 significant deposits of high-quality natural gas were found off the coast of Cabo Delgado. Today the province is home to
Hundreds of families have been forced to resettle away from their ancestral farmland and fishing grounds to make way for onshore support facilities for the projects.
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Speculative investing in land in anticipation of the gas boom -- often by Frelimo elites -- has also fuelled resentment among villagers, who continue to lose access to land and sustainable livelihoods.
In rural areas particularly, land is inextricably linked not only to livelihoods but also to identity, culture and history.
Some of the strongest research on violent extremism, by scholars such as psychologist
The displacement and marginalisation of coastal communities in Cabo Delgado is especially concerning, given pre-existing ethno-religious fault lines.
The Cabo Delgado coastal zone has traditionally been occupied by the Muslim Kimwani-speaking people, who rely predominantly on trading, fishing and seafaring.
Many Muslims in the province backed Frelimo's independence struggle against the Portuguese. However, since the first multiparty elections in 1994, Kimwani speakers have tended to vote for Renamo, and results in Mocímboa da
As journalist
Today, the Makonde form the local elite in Cabo Delgado, while the Kimwani-speaking people are among the poorest in the province and the most negatively affected by the LNG projects.
It is unlikely that the substantial number of jobs created by the LNG projects will go to local coastal communities, given low levels of formal education and the investment in training and support needed to equip community members with the requisite skills.
Any poverty reduction from jobs that do go to these communities has likely already been offset by the thousands of local citizens who have lost access to fishing grounds and small-scale agricultural production.
For communities living in the region, the security situation has deteriorated significantly over the past two years. Not only have they been victim to dozens of attacks by ASWJ, but the region has become highly securitised. Local communities report "living [in] constant fear of mistreatment by the military and by private security actors rather than feeling protected from the attacks".
In late August, Total's subsidiary in the region announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding with the government. The government will deploy a joint task force from the defence and security forces (FDS) to ensure security. In return, the Mozambique LNG project will provide logistical support to the FDS, including equipment and subsidies for troops.
As
The FDS is already stretched beyond the point where it can effectively protect communities in Cabo Delgado.
While the defence of strategic interests is one of the fundamental roles of the ministry of defence, it is easy to see how this relationship between the military and LNG sector would be viewed differently by a local population exposed to violence at the hands of armed groups, private military companies and government security forces on a weekly basis.
The
In
Mining companies will have to work with the government to tackle the grievances already generated by the sector -- particularly around disputed resettlement processes and human rights violations -- and work to address the underlying causes of extremism.
Natural gas revenues will only begin to accrue by 2024, so there is still time for
An Angolan scenario, where a political elite captures all the local content opportunities, will only serve to increase grievances and swell the ranks of the insurgency.
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