Financials GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V.

Equities

GMXT *

MX01GM1Z0019

Ground Freight & Logistics

End-of-day quote Mexican S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
37.15 ^MXN	-0.21%		+3.05%	-2.75%

Jan. 31	GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2023	CI
Jan. 11	Mexican antitrust authority investigates rail freight transport market	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Capitalization ¹	5,350	5,448	6,134	6,919	8,499	9,455	9,455	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	6,628	6,728	6,231	8,076	9,273	10,964	10,428	10,234
P/E ratio	14.7 x	17.2 x	20.7 x	18.6 x	16.2 x	19.6 x	17.7 x	15.6 x
Yield	4.18%	4.73%	3.51%	4.73%	5.48%	5.5%	5.64%	5.83%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.27 x	2.18 x	2.66 x	2.8 x	2.93 x	3 x	2.69 x	2.56 x
EV / Revenue	2.81 x	2.69 x	2.7 x	3.26 x	3.2 x	3.34 x	2.96 x	2.77 x
EV / EBITDA	6.55 x	6.08 x	6.18 x	7.32 x	7.01 x	7.38 x	6.77 x	6.17 x
EV / FCF	23.2 x	13.6 x	10.1 x	13.4 x	8.16 x	17.2 x	14.1 x	12.1 x
FCF Yield	4.32%	7.34%	9.89%	7.47%	12.3%	5.83%	7.12%	8.3%
Price to Book	2.02 x	2.06 x	2.35 x	2.61 x	2.55 x	3.04 x	2.89 x	2.93 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	4,100,595	4,100,595	4,100,595	4,100,595	4,369,940	4,369,940	4,369,940	-
Reference price ²	1.305	1.329	1.496	1.687	1.945	2.164	2.164	2.164
Announcement Date	2/11/19	2/25/20	1/22/21	1/26/22	1/25/23	1/31/24	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net sales ¹	2,358	2,497	2,307	2,475	2,897	3,287	3,518	3,691
EBITDA ¹	1,011	1,107	1,008	1,103	1,322	1,485	1,541	1,659
EBIT ¹	643.5	714.7	655.7	764.3	934.9	1,035	1,137	1,163
Operating Margin	27.29%	28.63%	28.42%	30.87%	32.27%	31.48%	32.31%	31.52%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	527.7	582.2	532.1	666.7	813.1	921.2	-	-
Net income ¹	363.8	316.5	295.7	366.4	522.3	499.1	532.2	627.3
Net margin	15.43%	12.68%	12.82%	14.8%	18.03%	15.18%	15.13%	17%
EPS ²	0.0887	0.0772	0.0721	0.0908	0.1200	0.1152	0.1220	0.1386
Free Cash Flow ¹	286.3	493.5	616	603.5	1,137	638.9	742	849
FCF margin	12.14%	19.77%	26.7%	24.38%	39.24%	19.44%	21.09%	23%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	28.3%	44.59%	61.11%	54.72%	85.99%	43.03%	48.16%	51.18%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	78.7%	155.94%	208.29%	164.72%	217.7%	128.02%	139.42%	135.34%
Dividend per Share ²	0.0545	0.0629	0.0525	0.0798	0.1065	0.1189	0.1221	0.1261
Announcement Date	2/11/19	2/25/20	1/22/21	1/26/22	1/25/23	1/31/24	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	639.9	646.9	632.8	646.1	657.1	709.6	730.3	790	851.8	767.5	803.1	904.4	900.8	891.7	879.8
EBITDA ¹	291.1	289.7	274.2	298.6	290	331.2	332.2	379.6	400.9	335.1	335.3	413.5	412.4	393.3	377.5
EBIT ¹	204.7	203.8	189	211.4	200.8	239.1	233.9	275.4	259.6	229.6	216.7	285.1	287.4	257.6	235.8
Operating Margin	31.98%	31.51%	29.88%	32.72%	30.56%	33.7%	32.03%	34.87%	30.48%	29.92%	26.98%	31.52%	31.9%	28.9%	26.8%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	102.3	96.82	90.74	98.27	99.41	148.4	150.3	116.6	127	131.7	111.6	154	155.5	138.5	127.3
Net margin	15.98%	14.97%	14.34%	15.21%	15.13%	20.92%	20.58%	14.76%	14.91%	17.16%	13.89%	17.03%	17.26%	15.53%	14.47%
EPS ²	0.0254	0.0240	0.0225	0.0244	0.0228	0.0341	0.0345	0.0268	0.0291	0.0302	0.0258	0.0350	0.0350	0.0320	0.0290
Dividend per Share	-	0.0247	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	7/22/21	10/22/21	1/26/22	4/28/22	7/26/22	10/24/22	1/25/23	4/24/23	7/26/23	10/18/23	1/31/24	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net Debt ¹	1,278	1,280	96.6	1,157	774	1,114	973	779
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.264 x	1.156 x	0.0958 x	1.049 x	0.5852 x	0.7499 x	0.6314 x	0.4695 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	286	494	616	603	1,137	639	742	849
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	14.2%	11.9%	11.6%	14.2%	16.8%	14.5%	18.3%	19.6%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	6.69%	5.53%	5.32%	-	-	7.09%	10.1%	-
Assets ¹	5,438	5,725	5,562	-	-	7,041	5,269	-
Book Value Per Share ²	0.6500	0.6400	0.6400	0.6500	0.7600	0.7400	0.7500	0.7400
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.1600	0.2000	0.2200	0.2300	0.3500	0.2500	0.3300	0.3100
Capex ¹	365	347	290	324	405	443	492	459
Capex / Sales	15.46%	13.89%	12.58%	13.08%	13.97%	13.47%	13.99%	12.44%
Announcement Date	2/11/19	2/25/20	1/22/21	1/26/22	1/25/23	1/31/24	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2.164 USD

Average target price

2.423 USD

Spread / Average Target

+11.98%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Railway Freight Operators

	1st Jan change	Capi.
GMÉXICO TRANSPORTES, S.A.B. DE C.V.	-2.75%	9.46B
CSX CORPORATION	-1.96%	66.45B
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORPORATION	+1.51%	54.21B
DAQIN RAILWAY CO., LTD.	+3.19%	18.04B
CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED	+24.24%	7.8B
CHINA RAILWAY MATERIALS COMPANY LIMITED	-2.62%	2.17B
MRS LOGÍSTICA S.A.	+8.31%	1.78B
CHINA RAILWAY TIELONG CONTAINER LOGISTICS CO., LTD	-1.82%	1.07B
NINGXIA WESTERN VENTURE INDUSTRIAL CO.,LTD.	-8.90%	886M
FTAI INFRASTRUCTURE INC.	+87.92%	743M

Railway Freight Operators