Financials Gulf Energy Development

Equities

GULF

TH8319010Z06

Independent Power Producers

End-of-day quote Thailand S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
40 ^THB	-3.03%		+1.27%	-10.11%

Apr. 23	Earth Tech Environment Public Company Limited Enters into Share Purchase Agreement with Gulf West to Energy Holdings Company Limited to Jointly Develop the Project for Industrial Waste-To-Energy Power Plants	CI
Apr. 04	Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited Approves Dividend for the Year Ended December 31, 2023, Payable on April 25, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	354,128	401,860	536,792	648,257	522,125	469,326	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	416,886	522,428	733,171	648,257	795,562	709,603	712,453	714,037
P/E ratio	72.5 x	87.8 x	70.4 x	57 x	35 x	24.9 x	21.3 x	19.9 x
Yield	0.78%	1.11%	0.96%	1.09%	1.98%	2.16%	2.3%	2.75%
Capitalization / Revenue	11.8 x	12.2 x	11.3 x	6.89 x	4.58 x	4.03 x	3.69 x	3.8 x
EV / Revenue	13.9 x	15.9 x	15.4 x	6.89 x	6.98 x	6.09 x	5.61 x	5.78 x
EV / EBITDA	52.3 x	49.9 x	46.5 x	30.1 x	35.7 x	25 x	22.8 x	23.4 x
EV / FCF	-75.5 x	-405 x	-90.6 x	-123 x	-453 x	-57.7 x	347 x	67.5 x
FCF Yield	-1.32%	-0.25%	-1.1%	-0.81%	-0.22%	-1.73%	0.29%	1.48%
Price to Book	9.22 x	5.86 x	5.56 x	5.85 x	4.48 x	3.46 x	3.18 x	2.85 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	10,666,500	11,733,150	11,733,150	11,733,150	11,733,150	11,733,150	-	-
Reference price ²	33.20	34.25	45.75	55.25	44.50	40.00	40.00	40.00
Announcement Date	2/21/20	2/22/21	2/18/22	2/16/23	2/15/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	30,040	32,827	47,467	94,151	114,054	116,461	127,079	123,603
EBITDA ¹	7,969	10,476	15,771	21,548	22,299	28,411	31,273	30,531
EBIT ¹	5,536	7,045	10,782	16,485	18,118	23,364	25,004	26,480
Operating Margin	18.43%	21.46%	22.71%	17.51%	15.88%	20.06%	19.68%	21.42%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	7,152	6,252	9,514	15,453	20,672	22,957	26,509	25,818
Net income ¹	4,887	4,282	7,670	11,418	14,858	18,785	21,800	23,568
Net margin	16.27%	13.04%	16.16%	12.13%	13.03%	16.13%	17.15%	19.07%
EPS ²	0.4580	0.3900	0.6500	0.9700	1.270	1.605	1.878	2.009
Free Cash Flow ¹	-5,523	-1,289	-8,094	-5,264	-1,755	-12,291	2,055	10,572
FCF margin	-18.38%	-3.93%	-17.05%	-5.59%	-1.54%	-10.55%	1.62%	8.55%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6.57%	34.63%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9.43%	44.86%
Dividend per Share ²	0.2600	0.3800	0.4400	0.6000	0.8800	0.8637	0.9198	1.101
Announcement Date	2/21/20	2/22/21	2/18/22	2/16/23	2/15/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	20,277	11,903	15,287	20,662	23,004	23,631	26,888	26,413	32,557	27,419	27,665	31,301	32,553	30,049	31,301	32,853
EBITDA	7,156	-	4,977	5,291	-	5,334	5,917	5,523	5,517	5,825	5,434	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	4,710	2,370	3,705	4,046	3,798	4,057	4,619	4,570	4,516	4,721	4,311	7,190	8,442	5,938	7,190	7,448
Operating Margin	23.23%	19.91%	24.23%	19.58%	16.51%	17.17%	17.18%	17.3%	13.87%	17.22%	15.58%	22.97%	25.93%	19.76%	22.97%	22.67%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	4,172	-	1,856	1,393	7,661	5,378	4,095	4,503	6,697	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-	1,588	3,043	3,395	1,531	1,087	5,406	3,850	2,885	3,360	4,763	4,128	5,465	3,423	4,675	5,068
Net margin	-	13.34%	19.91%	16.43%	6.65%	4.6%	20.1%	14.58%	8.86%	12.26%	17.21%	13.19%	16.79%	11.39%	14.94%	15.43%
EPS ²	-	0.1400	0.2600	0.2900	-	0.0900	0.4600	0.3300	0.2500	0.2900	0.4100	0.3985	0.5052	0.2918	0.3985	0.4320
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	0.4400	-	-	-	0.6000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.9563	-
Announcement Date	8/13/21	11/12/21	2/18/22	5/13/22	8/11/22	11/11/22	2/16/23	5/15/23	8/10/23	11/9/23	2/15/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	62,759	120,567	196,380	-	273,437	240,277	243,127	244,711
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	7.875 x	11.51 x	12.45 x	-	12.26 x	8.457 x	7.774 x	8.015 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-5,523	-1,289	-8,094	-5,264	-1,755	-12,291	2,055	10,572
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	13%	8.36%	9.55%	11%	13.1%	14.8%	15.8%	16%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.79%	2.25%	2.52%	2.92%	3.39%	3.93%	4.4%	4.38%
Assets ¹	128,974	189,928	304,123	390,423	438,838	477,411	495,400	537,795
Book Value Per Share ²	3.600	5.840	8.230	9.440	9.940	11.60	12.60	14.00
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.7500	0.9700	1.190	0.9600	1.560	2.850	3.220	-
Capex ¹	13,571	11,867	22,109	16,541	18,856	26,446	30,638	35,256
Capex / Sales	45.18%	36.15%	46.58%	17.57%	16.53%	22.71%	24.11%	28.52%
Announcement Date	2/21/20	2/22/21	2/18/22	2/16/23	2/15/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Gulf Energy Development

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

40 THB

Average target price

54 THB

Spread / Average Target

+34.99%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Fossil Fuel IPPs

	1st Jan change	Capi.
GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT	-10.11%	12.67B
HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC.	+18.36%	17.24B
JSW ENERGY LIMITED	+46.81%	12.56B
ZHEJIANG ZHENENG ELECTRIC POWER CO., LTD.	+36.88%	11.68B
SHAANXI ENERGY INVESTMENT CO., LTD.	+20.23%	5.32B
ABOITIZ POWER CORPORATION	-1.85%	4.63B
JIANGSU GUOXIN CORP. LTD.	+26.33%	4.33B
GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY	-1.55%	3.64B
GUANGDONG ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT CO., LTD.	+9.41%	3.5B
BEIJING JINGNENG POWER CO., LTD.	+15.54%	3.16B

Fossil Fuel IPPs