Projected Income Statement: Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

Fiscal Period: March 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -12,314 -14,530 -2,570 6,553 3,458 3,691 2,833 74.6
Change - -218% -117.69% 154.98% -47.23% 6.74% -23.25% -97.37%
Announcement Date 5/15/20 5/14/21 5/13/22 5/12/23 5/13/24 - - -
1JPY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

Fiscal Period: March 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 7,892 1,952 5,690 9,236 4,955 6,823 7,594 7,002
Change - -75.27% 191.5% 62.32% -46.35% 37.69% 11.31% -7.8%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,058 7,603 5,145 2,012 6,778 5,506 4,466 6,316
Change - 148.63% -32.33% -60.9% 236.96% -18.78% -18.87% 41.41%
Announcement Date 5/15/20 5/14/21 5/13/22 5/12/23 5/13/24 - - -
1JPY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

Fiscal Period: March 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1% 19.79% 29.77% 27.68% 18.79% 14.89% 22.35% 24.1%
EBIT Margin (%) 0.18% 2.34% 15.31% 14.29% 0.22% -0.47% 9.08% 13.56%
EBT Margin (%) 0.33% 2.75% 15.78% 14.25% -49.48% 8.09% 8.07% 12.96%
Net margin (%) -2.22% 1.79% 11.64% 10.62% -44.46% 5.94% 6.81% 10.04%
FCF margin (%) 8.16% 20.53% 9.01% 2.81% 12.15% 10.07% 6.82% 8.45%
FCF / Net Income (%) -367.55% 1,147.63% 77.45% 26.49% -27.32% 169.57% 100.12% 84.14%

Profitability

        
ROA 0.38% 1.02% 4.69% 7.23% 0.42% 3.2% 2.8% 5.3%
ROE -0.8% 0.7% 6.6% 7.5% -27.1% 3.4% 4.62% 7.81%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - 0.33x 0.33x 0.45x 0.19x 0x
Debt / Free cash flow - - - 3.26x 0.51x 0.67x 0.63x 0.01x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 21.05% 5.27% 9.97% 12.91% 8.88% 12.48% 11.6% 9.37%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 104.73% 26.63% 33.48% 46.65% 47.25% 83.79% 51.91% 38.85%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 258.08% 25.67% 110.6% 459.14% 73.1% 123.93% 170.03% 110.87%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 62.27 74.03 144.6 169 -164.3 133.9 130.9 177.2
Change - 18.89% 95.34% 16.89% -197.21% -181.48% -2.21% 35.33%
Dividend per Share 1 20 20 21 28 20 20 20.75 30.38
Change - 0% 5% 33.33% -28.57% 0% 3.75% 46.39%
Book Value Per Share 1 1,012 1,069 1,027 1,094 836 825.8 846.3 897.6
Change - 5.63% -3.92% 6.48% -23.55% -1.22% 2.48% 6.07%
EPS 1 -8.65 6.88 69.02 79.67 -261 35.45 46.56 79.21
Change - -179.54% 903.2% 15.43% -427.6% -113.58% 31.34% 70.13%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 96,263 96,263 96,263 95,064 94,976 94,993 94,993 94,993
Announcement Date 5/15/20 5/14/21 5/13/22 5/12/23 5/13/24 - - -
1JPY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 137x 104x
PBR 5.89x 5.75x
EV / Sales 8.52x 7.1x
Yield 0.41% 0.43%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG MSCI
B
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
10
Last Close Price
4,865.00JPY
Average target price
3,777.90JPY
Spread / Average Target
-22.35%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. 6324 Stock
  4. Financials Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.