Howmet Aerospace : 2Q21 Analyst Presentation Transcript (PDF)

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EDITED TRANSCRIPT

HWM.N - Q2 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

EVENT DATE/TIME: AUGUST 04, 2021 / 2:00PM GMT

OVERVIEW:

HWM reported 2Q21 revenue of $1.2b and EPS, excluding special items, of $0.22. Co. expects 2021 revenue to be $5.1b, plus or minus $50m and EPS to be $0.99, plus or minus $0.03. 2H21 revenue is expected to up approx. 12% vs. 1H21. For 3Q21 revenue is expected to be $1.3b, plus or minus $20m and EPS to be $0.25, plus or minus $0.02.

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AUGUST 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q2 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

C O R P O R A T E P A R T I C I P A N T S

John C. Plant Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive Chairman & Co-CEO

Kenneth J. Giacobbe Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive VP & CFO

Paul Thomas Luther Howmet Aerospace Inc. - VP of IR

Tolga I. Oal Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Co-CEO & Director

C O N F E R E N C E C A L L P A R T I C I P A N T S

Carter Copeland Melius Research LLC - Founding Partner, President and Research Analyst of Aerospace and Defense Daniel Flick Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division - Associate

David Egon Strauss Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - Research Analyst

George D. Shapiro Shapiro Research - CEO and Managing Partner

Matthew Carl Akers Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division - Senior Equity Analyst

Paretosh Misra Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, Research Division - Analyst

Robert Alan Stallard Vertical Research Partners, LLC - Partner

Robert Michael Spingarn Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Aerospace and Defense Analyst

Seth Michael Seifman JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Senior Equity Research Analyst

P R E S E N T A T I O N

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Second Quarter 2021 Results. My name is Catherine, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Paul Thomas Luther - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - VP of IR

Thank you, Catherine. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Second Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Tolga Oal, Co-Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John, Tolga and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

In addition, we've included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

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AUGUST 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q2 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

John C. Plant - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive Chairman & Co-CEO

Thanks, PT. Good morning, and welcome to the second quarter call. I'll start with an overview of Howmet's second quarter performance then pass to Tolga, who'll talk more to our markets, and then Ken will provide further financial detail. I also plan to talk to ESG, and we'll do so in about once a year going forward and then provide guidance and talk to guidance for the third quarter and the full year 2021.

So let's move to Slide #4. Let me start with some commentary on the second quarter, which was the first comparable quarter for Howmet post separation with no pro forma numbers. Revenue was $1.2 billion and in line with expectations, while EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share exceeded our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $272 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was on par with Q1 2021 and Q4 2020 at 22.8% despite the addition of costs to prepare for the second half ramp-up in commercial aerospace production. Earnings per share, excluding special items, was $0.22 and ahead of our expectations.

Historically, the first half has been a cash outflow for the company. The increased operating performance focus of Howmet has led to improved margins, enhanced working capital control and capital discipline, which generated $160 million of cash in the first half of the year. We expect continued cash generation in the third and fourth quarters. Year-to-date, we have reduced debt by approximately $835 million by completing the early redemption of the 2021 notes in Q1 and the 2022 notes in Q2 with cash on hand. These transactions reduced 2021 interest expense by approximately $28 million and approximately $47 million on an annual run rate basis. This helps with increased 2022 free cash flow.

In the second quarter, we continue to return money to shareholders with the completion of a $200 million share buyback program. The weighted average acquisition price was $34.02 per share for approximately 5.9 million shares. The second quarter end cash balance was $716 million. Lastly, we continue to focus on reducing legacy liabilities. Year-to-date, we have reduced our pension and OPEB liabilities by approximately $160 million. Moreover, full year pension and OPEB expense is expected to improve approximately 50% compared to last year.

Now let's move to markets and performance on Slide 5. Q2 revenue was 5% less year-over-year and in line with our expectations. On a year-over-year basis, commercial aerospace was 31% less, driven by lower aircraft builds, spares and the lingering effects of customer inventory corrections. Commercial aerospace continues to represent approximately 40% of total revenue compared to pre-COVID levels of 60%. The commercial aerospace decline is partially offset by our continued strength in other markets. The industrial gas turbine business continues to grow and was up 13% year-over-year, driven by new builds and spares. The commercial transportation business was up 89% year-over-year as it rebounds from customer shutdowns in Q2 of 2020. Truck demand remains strong as our customers manage through their own supply chain issues with several components which are in short supply.

At the bottom of the slide, you can see the progress on price, cost reduction, margin expansion and cash management. Price increases are up year-over-year and continue to be in line with expectations as they are tied to long-term agreements. Structural cost reductions are also in line with expectations with a $37 million year-over-year benefit which reflects the decisive actions we started in the second quarter of 2020 at the onset of the pandemic and continued through last year. Year-to-date structural cost reductions are $98 million, which have essentially achieved already our target of approximately $100 million. The aerospace decremental operating margins continue to be very good at only 19%, while the Wheels segment had an incremental margin of 47%. EBITDA margin expanded by 310 basis points year-on-year, driven by price, variable cost flexing and fixed cost reductions. The team delivered strong margin expansion despite a reduction in revenue. Capital expenditure was $36 million for the quarter and continues to be less than depreciation and amortization, resulting in a net source of cash. Lastly, free cash flow was $164 million for the quarter, resulting in a record first half.

Now let's move to Slide 6. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 22.8% and consistent with the last couple of quarters on approximately $43 million of less revenue. The margin result overcame both the effects of the low revenue and the cost of many additional employees to meet the increasing production demand coming in the third quarter. Q2 revenue at $1.2 billion was in line with expectations. You can see the benefit of our actions since the start of the pandemic in Q2 with a solid 310 basis points EBITDA margin expansion, while revenue was approximately $58 million less in the same period.

Now let me hand it over to Tolga to give an overview of the markets.

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AUGUST 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q2 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

Tolga I. Oal - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Co-CEO & Director

Thank you, John. Please move to Slide 7 and some more details about our year-over-year revenue performance. Second quarter revenue was 5% less, driven by commercial aerospace, which continues to represent approximately 40% of total revenue in the quarter. Commercial aerospace was 31% less year-over-year, in line with our projections as expected inventory corrections continued. Defense aerospace was essentially flat in the second quarter as we are on a diverse set of programs with the Joint Strike Fighter being approximately 40% of the total defense business. Commercial transportation, which impacts both the Forged Wheels and the Fastening Systems segments, was up 89% year-over-year as second quarter of last year was significantly impacted by customer shutdowns. Finally, the industrial and other markets, which is composed of IGT, oil and gas and general industrial, was up 13%. IGT, which makes up approximately 45% of this market, continues to be strong and was up a healthy 13% year-over-year.

I will now turn it over to Ken to give a more detailed view of the financials.

Kenneth J. Giacobbe - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive VP & CFO

Thank you, Tolga. Let's move to Slide 8 for the segment results. As expected, Engine Products year-over-year revenue was 7% less in the second quarter. Commercial aerospace was 17% less, driven by customer inventory corrections and reduced demand for spares. Commercial aerospace was partially offset by a year-over-year increase of 13% in IGT. The IGT business continues to be strong as demand for cleaner energy continues. Decremental margins for engines were 12% for the quarter as we hired back approximately 300 workers to prepare for the anticipated growth in the second half of this year. In the appendix of the presentation, we have provided a schedule which shows each segment's incremental or decremental margins for the quarter.

Now let's move to Fastening Systems on Slide 9. Also as expected, Fastening Systems year-over-year revenue was 20% less in the second quarter. Commercial aerospace was 42% less. Like the Engine segment, we continue to experience inventory corrections in commercial aerospace. The industrial and commercial transportation markets within the Fastening Systems segment were both up approximately 45% year-over-year. Decremental margins for Fastening Systems were 31% for the second quarter, and segment operating profit margin was approximately 19%.

Please move to Slide 10 to review Engineered Structures. Engineered Structures year-over-year revenue was 30% less in the second quarter. Commercial aerospace was 45% less, driven by customer inventory corrections and production declines for the Boeing 787. Defense aerospace was relatively flat year-over-year. Decremental margins for Engineered Structures were 12% for the quarter.

Lastly, please move to Slide 11 for Forged Wheels. Forged Wheels revenue doubled year-over-year as last year's results were impacted by customer shutdowns. On a sequential basis, volumes were down approximately 7% due to customer supply chain issues. Reported revenue was essentially flat sequentially, driven by a 20% increase in aluminum prices. Although higher metal costs were passed through to customers to avoid a profit impact, you will see a reduction in EBITDA percent resulting from the pass-through. Segment operating profit margin was approximately 27%, and year-over-year incremental margin was 47%. Improved margin was driven by continued cost management and maximizing production in low-cost countries.

Please move to Slide 12. We continue to focus on improving our capital structure and liquidity. In the first half of the year, we completed the early redemption of our 2021 and 2022 bonds with cash on hand. Gross debt stands at approximately $4.2 billion. All debt is unsecured, and the next maturity is in October of 2024. Finally, our $1 billion 5-year revolving credit facility remains undrawn.

Before turning it back to John to discuss ESG and 2021 guidance, I would like to point out that there's a slide in the appendix that covers special items in the quarter. Special items for the second quarter were a net charge of approximately $22 million, mainly driven by the costs associated with the early redemption of the 2022 bonds completed in early May.

Now let me turn it back over to John.

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AUGUST 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q2 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

John C. Plant - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive Chairman & Co-CEO

Thank you, Ken, and let's move to Slide 13. Moving to ESG, I'd I encourage you to read our sustainability report found at howmet.com in the Investors section. For Howmet Aerospace, environmental, social and governance is about generating meaningful change for a more sustainable future, improving our diversity and inclusion inside our company and in the communities in which we operate.

Regarding employee safety, we are maintaining attention on safety through and certain operational conditions presented by COVID-19. Total recordable incidents continue to be significantly better than the aerospace and defense industry average. For 2020, we had a 20% year-over-year improvement in rate to 0.71. Additionally, 84% of our locations worldwide were without a lost workday incident. This is a tremendous testament to the dedication and focus of our workforce.

We continue to underscore the importance and power of diversity, equity and inclusion in our company. We value the rich diversity of expertise, backgrounds and viewpoints that fuel our innovation, and we are committed to improving diversity of employees at all levels. Recently, we were recognized by the 50/50 Women on Boards organization for our commitment to board diversity. In addition to gender diversity, we also partnered with key external organizations, including the Human Rights Campaign, the National Hispanic Corporate Council and Diversity Best Practices, to review and continuously improve our initiatives.

With respect to sustainability, nowhere is this more evident than in the products that we provide to our customers. Our proprietary technologies help reduce fuel consumption and cut carbon emissions contributing to the aerospace industry's goal of a smaller carbon footprint. Five specific areas are at the bottom left of the slide. For commercial aerospace, next-generation jet engine technology reduces fuel consumption by approximately 15%. Moreover, Howmet's increased content on composite aircraft of 2x contributes to lightweighting solutions and reduces fuel use as composite aircraft are approximately 20% more fuel efficient than comparable metallic aircraft.

For Forged Wheels, Howmet's aluminum wheels are 5x stronger than steel while being 47% lighter. Customers can realize up to 1,400 pounds of weight savings from retrofitting an 18-wheeler Class 8 truck of steel to aluminum wheels. For IGT, Howmet's products continue to enable higher operating temperatures in the turbine and also pressures, which increase the load efficiency towards approximately 64% and reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by approximately 40%.

Lastly, for renewables, Howmet's Fastening Systems used with solar panels improve strength and clamping by 5x to 10x and reduce installation time by up to 80%.

Moving to STEM education and inclusiveness. Howmet is dedicated to increasing STEM opportunities and education in the local community through the Howmet Aerospace Foundation with grants to institutions and schools. Also, we renewed our commitment to support our 6 employee resource groups with strategic focus on community, culture and careers.

Let me now move to Slide 14 for our third quarter and annual guidance. The leading indicators for air travel continue to show improvement, notably for domestic travel. This includes online searches for air tickets, increases in flight schedules across most of the world and beginnings of some international travel. Orders for aircraft by airlines and assembly partners are increasing rapidly. The expectation that Howmet will transition into revenue growth in the third quarter continues with growth of approximately 15% in commercial aerospace and total revenue growth of approximately 9%. We look forward to managing and leading this exciting growth phase for Howmet after the devastation of the pandemic on the industry. Growth is expected to continue into Q4 and into 2021 -- sorry, 2022 and beyond. The sequence of our business is that we expect increases in the Engine business, notably starting in the third quarter, followed by Structures in the fourth quarter; and Fasteners, starting in the first quarter of 2022.

In terms of specific numbers, we expect the following: for the third quarter, revenue of $1.3 billion, plus or minus $20 million; EBITDA of $295 million, plus or minus $10 million; EBITDA margin of 22.7%, plus or minus 40 basis points; and earnings per share of $0.25, plus or minus $0.02. And for the year, we expect revenue to be $5.1 billion, plus or minus $50 million; EBITDA baseline to increase to $1.17 billion, plus or minus -- plus $15 million, minus $25 million; EBITDA margin to increase to 22.9%, plus 10 basis points and minus 20 basis points; earnings per share increase to $0.99, plus $0.03, [minus $0.04] (corrected by Company after the event); cash flow baseline increase to $450 million, plus or minus $35 million.

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