MCDONALD'S HOLDINGS COMPANY (JAPAN), LTD.

Financials McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd.

Equities

2702

JP3750500005

Restaurants & Bars

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
6,870 ^JPY	+0.15%		-0.15%	+12.44%

Mar. 16	Big Mac goes Big Tech, with a few hiccups	RE
Mar. 15	McDonald's suffers global tech outage, rules out cybersecurity incident	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	696,706	664,795	676,761	664,130	812,379	913,428	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	639,284	603,361	602,146	603,248	747,531	913,428	913,428	913,428
P/E ratio	41.3 x	32.9 x	28.3 x	33.3 x	32.3 x	32.1 x	28.6 x	26.4 x
Yield	0.63%	0.72%	0.77%	0.78%	0.69%	0.61%	0.61%	0.61%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.47 x	2.31 x	2.13 x	1.89 x	2.13 x	2.22 x	2.12 x	2.02 x
EV / Revenue	2.47 x	2.31 x	2.13 x	1.89 x	2.13 x	2.22 x	2.12 x	2.02 x
EV / EBITDA	18,183,156 x	15,636,351 x	-	-	-	-	-	-
EV / FCF	23 x	70 x	37.4 x	36.7 x	-	35.7 x	27.2 x	24.7 x
FCF Yield	4.36%	1.43%	2.67%	2.72%	-	2.8%	3.67%	4.04%
Price to Book	4.37 x	3.8 x	3.48 x	3.21 x	3.58 x	3.68 x	3.36 x	3.08 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	132,959	132,959	132,959	132,959	132,959	132,959	-	-
Reference price ²	5,240	5,000	5,090	4,995	6,110	6,870	6,870	6,870
Announcement Date	2/13/20	2/9/21	2/9/22	2/8/23	2/8/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	281,763	288,332	317,695	352,300	381,989	411,750	430,900	452,350
EBITDA	38,316	42,516	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	28,018	31,290	34,518	33,807	40,877	46,200	51,100	55,090
Operating Margin	9.94%	10.85%	10.87%	9.6%	10.7%	11.22%	11.86%	12.18%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	26,954	30,554	32,711	31,177	38,768	42,500	45,300	47,000
Net income ¹	16,885	20,186	23,945	19,937	25,163	28,450	31,950	34,540
Net margin	5.99%	7%	7.54%	5.66%	6.59%	6.91%	7.41%	7.64%
EPS ²	127.0	151.8	180.1	150.0	189.3	214.0	240.3	259.8
Free Cash Flow ¹	30,355	9,495	18,095	18,095	-	25,588	33,550	36,933
FCF margin	10.77%	3.29%	5.7%	5.14%	-	6.21%	7.79%	8.16%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	79.22%	22.33%	-	-	-	-	-	-
FCF Conversion (Net income)	179.77%	47.04%	75.57%	90.76%	-	89.94%	105.01%	106.93%
Dividend per Share ²	33.00	36.00	39.00	39.00	42.00	42.00	42.00	42.00
Announcement Date	2/13/20	2/9/21	2/9/22	2/8/23	2/8/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	145,202	139,243	151,266	85,285	81,144	84,289	83,938	168,227	91,703	92,370	92,059	90,401	182,460	99,973	99,556	99,035	98,170	193,510	102,365	112,180	105,100
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	13,352	14,769	17,226	11,321	5,971	9,643	7,836	17,479	9,646	6,682	8,378	9,633	18,011	14,360	8,506	10,030	10,540	19,740	13,270	12,360	11,000
Operating Margin	9.2%	10.61%	11.39%	13.27%	7.36%	11.44%	9.34%	10.39%	10.52%	7.23%	9.1%	10.66%	9.87%	14.36%	8.54%	10.13%	10.74%	10.2%	12.96%	11.02%	10.47%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	14,269	16,839	10,908	-	9,463	-	17,024	8,949	-	8,420	-	17,687	13,681	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	7,220	9,191	10,914	7,023	6,008	6,116	4,897	11,013	5,782	3,142	5,284	6,086	11,370	8,713	5,080	6,490	6,725	12,830	8,650	6,585	7,100
Net margin	4.97%	6.6%	7.22%	8.23%	7.4%	7.26%	5.83%	6.55%	6.31%	3.4%	5.74%	6.73%	6.23%	8.72%	5.1%	6.55%	6.85%	6.63%	8.45%	5.87%	6.76%
EPS	-	69.13	82.09	52.82	-	46.00	-	82.83	43.49	-	39.74	-	85.52	65.53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	2/13/20	8/12/20	8/12/21	11/11/21	2/9/22	5/12/22	8/10/22	8/10/22	11/14/22	2/8/23	5/12/23	8/10/23	8/10/23	11/10/23	2/8/24	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position	57,422	61,434	74,615	60,882	64,848	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	30,355	9,495	18,095	18,095	-	25,588	33,550	36,933
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	11.1%	12.1%	13%	9.9%	11.6%	11.5%	11.3%	10.7%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	12.7%	13.8%	13.6%	12.2%	13.8%	13.8%	13.2%	12.6%
Assets ¹	132,820	146,033	175,608	163,284	181,850	206,159	242,045	274,127
Book Value Per Share ²	1,198	1,317	1,461	1,555	1,705	1,868	2,047	2,233
Cash Flow per Share	204.0	236.0	274.0	254.0	307.0	-	-	-
Capex ¹	14,597	18,386	18,943	24,431	32,654	26,403	21,950	21,950
Capex / Sales	5.18%	6.38%	5.96%	6.93%	8.55%	6.41%	5.09%	4.85%
Announcement Date	2/13/20	2/9/21	2/9/22	2/8/23	2/8/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

6,870 JPY

Average target price

7,350 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+6.99%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Quick Service Restaurants

	1st Jan change	Capi.
MCDONALD'S HOLDINGS COMPANY (JAPAN), LTD.	+12.44%	5.8B
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC.	+39.35%	87.54B
YUM! BRANDS, INC.	+8.50%	39.89B
RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	-5.41%	23.95B
RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC.	-5.52%	23.36B
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC.	+21.07%	17.38B
YUM CHINA HOLDINGS, INC.	-6.55%	15.49B
WINGSTOP INC.	+49.10%	11.24B
AMERICANA RESTAURANTS INTERNATIONAL PLC	+4.47%	7.5B
THE WENDY'S COMPANY	+3.39%	4.14B

Quick Service Restaurants