Financials Naftna Industrija Srbije a.d.

Equities

NIIS

RSNISHE79420

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

End-of-day quote Belgrade S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
864 ^RSD	-0.92%		+1.05%	+6.40%

Jan. 31	Naftna Industrija Srbije a.d. Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2023	CI
Jan. 31	Naftna Industrija Srbije a.d. Reports Earnings Results for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2023	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	122,132	105,011	101,097	110,044	132,405	140,884	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	188,979	168,403	157,479	91,227	181,293	172,755	170,091	159,408
P/E ratio	7.34 x	-14 x	4.82 x	1.19 x	2.96 x	3.32 x	3.37 x	3.35 x
Yield	3.62%	-	5.72%	-	-	7.53%	7.42%	7.46%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.45 x	0.57 x	0.34 x	0.23 x	0.36 x	0.25 x	0.23 x	0.23 x
EV / Revenue	0.69 x	0.92 x	0.53 x	0.19 x	0.5 x	0.3 x	0.28 x	0.26 x
EV / EBITDA	4.25 x	10.6 x	2.96 x	0.67 x	2.66 x	2.07 x	2.05 x	1.88 x
EV / FCF	18.7 x	-	-	-	-	4.65 x	8.92 x	6.27 x
FCF Yield	5.34%	-	-	-	-	21.5%	11.2%	15.9%
Price to Book	0.48 x	0.43 x	0.38 x	0.31 x	0.36 x	0.35 x	0.33 x	0.3 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	163,060	163,060	163,060	163,060	163,060	163,060	-	-
Reference price ²	749.0	644.0	620.0	674.9	812.0	864.0	864.0	864.0
Announcement Date	2/28/20	3/11/21	2/21/22	2/23/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹RSD in Million²RSD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	272,096	183,834	295,162	486,083	364,517	568,650	607,997	612,997
EBITDA ¹	44,480	15,824	53,174	136,201	68,051	83,466	83,024	84,609
EBIT ¹	23,361	-7,404	27,993	110,722	51,264	58,809	57,139	56,795
Operating Margin	8.59%	-4.03%	9.48%	22.78%	14.06%	10.34%	9.4%	9.27%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	21,129	-9,130	25,201	109,838	52,161	53,026	52,288	52,558
Net income ¹	16,611	-7,566	20,957	92,375	44,667	42,421	41,830	42,046
Net margin	6.1%	-4.12%	7.1%	19%	12.25%	7.46%	6.88%	6.86%
EPS ²	102.0	-46.00	128.5	566.5	273.9	260.2	256.5	257.9
Free Cash Flow ¹	10,086	-	-	-	-	37,157	19,063	25,405
FCF margin	3.71%	-	-	-	-	6.53%	3.14%	4.14%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	22.68%	-	-	-	-	44.52%	22.96%	30.03%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	60.72%	-	-	-	-	87.59%	45.57%	60.42%
Dividend per Share ²	27.14	-	35.46	-	-	65.04	64.13	64.46
Announcement Date	2/28/20	3/11/21	2/21/22	2/23/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹RSD in Million²RSD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1
Net sales ¹	98,035	142,239	-	92,756	102,000
EBITDA ¹	-	40,861	-	11,536	11,200
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	15,640	-	18,302	-	-
Net margin	15.95%	-	-	-	-
EPS	-	-	112.2	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	5/13/22	8/1/22	10/30/23	1/30/24	-

¹RSD in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	66,846	63,392	56,381	-	48,888	31,871	29,207	18,524
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	18,817	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.503 x	4.006 x	1.06 x	-	0.7184 x	0.3818 x	0.3518 x	0.2189 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	10,086	-	-	-	-	37,157	19,063	25,405
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	6.68%	-3.04%	8.29%	30.2%	12.4%	11%	10%	9.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Assets ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Book Value Per Share ²	1,562	1,489	1,612	2,143	2,273	2,463	2,656	2,849
Cash Flow per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capex ¹	46,847	-	-	-	-	40,000	50,000	50,000
Capex / Sales	17.22%	-	-	-	-	7.03%	8.22%	8.16%
Announcement Date	2/28/20	3/11/21	2/21/22	2/23/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹RSD in Million²RSD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Naftna Industrija Srbije a.d.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

864 RSD

Average target price

1,120 RSD

Spread / Average Target

+29.63%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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