Financials Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.

Equities

9048

JP3649800004

Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2,074 ^JPY	0.00%		+1.74%	-8.37%

Feb. 13	Nagoya Railroad's Profit Up 35% in Fiscal Nine-Month Period	MT
Feb. 13	Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd. Provides Consolidated and Non-Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: März	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	587,251	595,900	517,785	426,721	401,715	407,627	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	964,911	971,623	927,252	844,360	780,249	802,727	822,327	833,627
P/E ratio	19.3 x	20.6 x	-18 x	45.5 x	21.3 x	18.6 x	15 x	13 x
Yield	0.9%	0.83%	-	0.58%	0.98%	1.21%	1.29%	1.45%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.94 x	0.96 x	1.08 x	0.87 x	0.73 x	0.69 x	0.66 x	0.63 x
EV / Revenue	1.55 x	1.56 x	1.93 x	1.72 x	1.41 x	1.37 x	1.33 x	1.29 x
EV / EBITDA	10.7 x	10.9 x	40.3 x	20.4 x	12.7 x	11.2 x	10.1 x	8.82 x
EV / FCF	76.8 x	-320 x	-32.8 x	2,882 x	423 x	-397 x	133 x	-1,848 x
FCF Yield	1.3%	-0.31%	-3.05%	0.03%	0.24%	-0.25%	0.75%	-0.05%
Price to Book	1.53 x	1.48 x	1.39 x	1.11 x	0.99 x	0.97 x	0.92 x	0.86 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	191,599	196,667	196,652	196,646	196,534	196,589	-	-
Reference price ²	3,065	3,030	2,633	2,170	2,044	2,074	2,074	2,074
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/25/20	5/11/21	5/11/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: März	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	622,568	622,916	481,645	490,919	551,504	587,781	620,257	645,450
EBITDA ¹	90,040	88,958	22,997	41,470	61,393	71,500	81,400	94,500
EBIT ¹	49,456	47,363	-16,354	2,932	22,731	32,483	41,600	49,535
Operating Margin	7.94%	7.6%	-3.4%	0.6%	4.12%	5.53%	6.71%	7.67%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	46,120	47,337	-22,525	16,069	28,634	32,272	42,013	47,980
Net income ¹	30,457	28,879	-28,769	9,370	18,850	22,320	27,793	31,255
Net margin	4.89%	4.64%	-5.97%	1.91%	3.42%	3.8%	4.48%	4.84%
EPS ²	158.9	146.9	-146.3	47.65	95.91	111.3	138.6	159.0
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,570	-3,039	-28,252	293	1,845	-2,020	6,186	-451
FCF margin	2.02%	-0.49%	-5.87%	0.06%	0.33%	-0.34%	1%	-0.07%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	13.96%	-	-	0.71%	3.01%	-	7.6%	-
FCF Conversion (Net income)	41.27%	-	-	3.13%	9.79%	-	22.26%	-
Dividend per Share ²	27.50	25.00	-	12.50	20.00	25.00	26.83	30.00
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/25/20	5/11/21	5/11/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: März	2020 S1	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	316,128	226,942	115,837	224,284	135,863	125,202	137,923	263,125	143,543	144,836	140,977	142,751	283,728	159,755	159,460
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	29,101	-14,987	-831	-2,644	9,311	4,214	5,966	10,180	10,626	1,925	7,760	8,140	15,900	14,220	4,130
Operating Margin	9.21%	-6.6%	-0.72%	-1.18%	6.85%	3.37%	4.33%	3.87%	7.4%	1.33%	5.5%	5.7%	5.6%	8.9%	2.59%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	30,488	-11,566	-	3,543	12,052	5,401	-	12,177	12,463	-	9,538	-	14,753	15,444	-
Net income	19,357	-12,404	-	1,016	7,185	3,187	-	7,746	8,154	-	7,243	-	9,980	11,551	-
Net margin	6.12%	-5.47%	-	0.45%	5.29%	2.55%	-	2.94%	5.68%	-	5.14%	-	3.52%	7.23%	-
EPS	98.49	-63.08	-	5.170	36.54	16.22	-	39.42	41.48	-	36.86	-	50.78	58.76	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/8/19	11/10/20	11/8/21	11/8/21	2/7/22	8/8/22	11/8/22	11/8/22	2/10/23	5/11/23	8/9/23	11/9/23	11/9/23	2/13/24	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: März	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	377,660	375,723	409,467	417,639	378,534	395,100	414,700	426,000
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	4.194 x	4.224 x	17.81 x	10.07 x	6.166 x	5.526 x	5.095 x	4.508 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,570	-3,039	-28,252	293	1,845	-2,020	6,186	-451
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	8.1%	7.2%	-7.4%	2.5%	4.8%	5.42%	6.44%	6.82%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.56%	4.27%	-0.69%	1.1%	2.18%	2.05%	2.42%	2.28%
Assets ¹	667,658	675,684	4,160,496	848,194	864,588	1,086,469	1,148,803	1,372,941
Book Value Per Share ²	2,002	2,053	1,892	1,949	2,058	2,136	2,251	2,402
Cash Flow per Share ²	369.0	357.0	53.80	244.0	291.0	308.0	353.0	-
Capex ¹	54,834	73,286	47,937	49,887	62,351	86,600	69,400	73,850
Capex / Sales	8.81%	11.76%	9.95%	10.16%	11.31%	14.73%	11.19%	11.44%
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/25/20	5/11/21	5/11/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2,074 JPY

Average target price

2,457 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+18.48%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

	1st Jan change	Capi.
NAGOYA RAILROAD CO., LTD.	-8.37%	2.59B
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	-0.50%	22.29B
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORPORATION LIMITED	+17.77%	10.02B
WEST JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+0.78%	9.18B
TOKYU CORPORATION	+8.34%	7.09B
HANKYU HANSHIN HOLDINGS, INC.	-9.24%	6.23B
KEISEI ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD	-11.06%	6.12B
KINTETSU GROUP HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.	-8.41%	4.95B
SEIBU HOLDINGS INC.	+26.72%	4.74B
TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-16.65%	4.15B

Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea