NuVista Energy : Q1 2023 MD&A

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS

For the three months ended March 31, 2023

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

Management's discussion and analysis ("MD&A") of financial conditions and results of operations should be read in conjunction with NuVista Energy Ltd.'s ("NuVista" or the "Company") condensed consolidated interim financial statements (the "financial statements") for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and audited statements for the year ended December 31, 2022, together with the notes related thereto, for a full understanding of the financial position and results of operations of the Company. The following MD&A was prepared at and is dated May 9, 2023. Our December 31, 2022 audited financial statements, Annual Information Form and other disclosure documents are available on SEDAR at www.sedar.comor can be obtained at www.nuvistaenergy.com.

Throughout this MD&A and in other materials disclosed by the Company, NuVista adheres to generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"), however the Company also uses various specified financial measures (as defined in National Instrument 51-112 - Non-GAAPand Other Financial Measures ("NI 51-112")) including "non-GAAP financial measures", "non-GAAP ratios", "capital management measures" and "supplementary financial measures" to analyze financial performance including, "adjusted funds flow", "annualized current quarter adjusted funds flow", "capital expenditures", "net capital expenditures", "free adjusted funds flow", "netbacks", "cash costs", "net debt", "netbacks per Boe" and "cash costs per Boe". For further information, refer to the section "Specified Financial Measures".

These specified financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. The specified financial measures should not be considered to be more meaningful than GAAP measures which are determined in accordance with IFRS, such as net earnings (loss), cash provided by operating activities, and cash used in investing activities, as indicators of NuVista's performance.

This MD&A contains forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Such forward looking-information is based upon certain expectations and assumptions and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. For further information regarding the forward-looking information contained herein, including the assumptions underlying such forward-looking information, refer to the "Forward-looking Information and Statements" in the advisories section.

All Boe amounts as presented in this MD&A have been calculated using the conversion of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil (6 Mcf = 1 Bbl). Condensate is a natural gas liquid ("NGL") as defined by National Instrument 51-101Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"). Throughout this MD&A, NGLs comprise all NGLs as defined by NI 51-101 other than condensate, which is disclosed separately as condensate. For further information refer to the "Oil and Gas Measures" in the advisories section.

NuVista Energy Ltd.

Q1 2023 Management Discussion & Analysis | 1

FINANCIAL AND OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS

Three months ended March 31

($ thousands, except otherwise stated)	2023	2022	% Change
FINANCIAL
Petroleum and natural gas revenues	390,163	381,827	2
Cash provided by operating activities	215,221	162,442	32
Adjusted funds flow (3)	207,464	189,869	9
Per share, basic (6)	0.95	0.83	14
Per share, diluted (6)	0.91	0.80	14
Net earnings	80,709	70,255	15
Per share, basic	0.37	0.31	19
Per share, diluted	0.36	0.30	20
Net capital expenditures (1)	169,870	119,964	42
Net debt (3)	168,985	412,932	(59)
OPERATING
Daily Production
Natural gas (MMcf/d)	253.3	229.0	11
Condensate (Bbls/d)	22,885	21,680	6
NGLs (Bbls/d)	6,113	6,756	(10)
Total (Boe/d)	71,209	66,599	7
Condensate & NGLs weighting	41%	43%
Condensate weighting	32%	33%
Average realized selling prices(5)
Natural gas ($/Mcf)	7.02	5.79	21
Condensate ($/Bbl)	101.31	119.21	(15)
NGLs ($/Bbl) (4)	39.30	49.30	(20)
Netbacks ($/Boe)
Petroleum and natural gas revenues	60.88	63.71	(4)
Realized loss on financial derivatives	(1.42)	(7.54)	(81)
Royalties	(8.04)	(5.56)	45
Transportation expense	(4.13)	(4.58)	(10)
Operating expense	(11.71)	(10.89)	8
Operating netback (2)	35.58	35.14	1
Corporate netback (2)	32.36	31.69	2
SHARE TRADING STATISTICS
High ($/share)	12.67	11.92	6
Low ($/share)	10.42	6.94	50
Close ($/share)	10.93	10.57	3
Average daily volume (thousands of shares)	677	1,576	(57)
Common shares outstanding (thousands of shares)	218,764	228,472	(4)

1. Non-GAAPfinancial measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
2. Non-GAAPratio that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
3. Capital management measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
4. Natural gas liquids ("NGLs") include butane, propane and ethane revenue and sales volumes, and sulphur revenue.
5. Product prices exclude realized gains/losses on financial derivatives.
6. Supplementary financial measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".

NuVista Energy Ltd.

Q1 2023 Management Discussion & Analysis | 2

ABOUT NUVISTA ENERGY LTD.

NuVista is an exploration and production company actively engaged in the development, delineation and production of condensate, NGLs, and natural gas reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. NuVista's focus is on the scalable and repeatable condensate rich Montney formation in the Wapiti and Pipestone areas of the Alberta Deep Basin ("Montney"). The common shares of NuVista trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") under the symbol NVA.

FIRST QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

• Adjusted funds flow - During the first quarter of 2023, NuVista generated adjusted funds flow of $207.5 million, a 9% increase as compared to the same prior year period of $189.9 million. The increase in adjusted funds flow was primarily due to higher production revenues, net of realized losses on financial derivative contracts, offset by an increase in royalties. With adjusted funds flow of $207.5 million, net capital expenditures of $169.9 million and ARO spending of $9.7 million, NuVista delivered free adjusted funds flow of $27.9 million. Adjusted funds flow for the first quarter of 2023, decreased 19% over the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily due to a decrease in commodity prices and lower average production volumes impacted by unplanned outages at third party facilities.
• Liquidity - NuVista ended the first quarter of 2023, with $65.6 million of cash deposits and no amounts drawn on its $440 million credit facility. NuVista's net debt was $169.0 million at March 31, 2023, a 2% reduction from $171.8 million at December 31, 2022. The Company's net debt to annualized first quarter adjusted funds flow was 0.2x, well below its target of 1.0x. During the first quarter of 2023, NuVista successfully redeemed an additional $32.8 million of its 2026 Notes through open market repurchases. The remaining face value of the 2026 Notes at March 31, 2023 was $187.8 million, with a carrying value of $183.6 million. Subsequent to the first quarter of 2023, NuVista increased its financial flexibility through the successful transition from a reserve based lending facility to a covenant based facility. NuVista now has in place a $450 million three-year covenant based credit facility with its existing banking syndicate.
• Production - Production in the first quarter of 2023 averaged 71,209 Boe/d, which was at the lower end of our first quarter guidance range of 71,000 - 74,000 Boe/d, a 4% decrease compared to 74,252 Boe/d in the fourth quarter of 2022 and a 7% increase compared to 66,599 Boe/d in the same period of 2022. Production from 14 new wells brought online throughout the first quarter was offset by unplanned outages at three separate third party midstream facilities impacting the quarter by approximately 1,500 Boe/d, and natural declines. The production composition for the three months ended March 31, 2023 was 32% condensate, 9% NGLs and 59% natural gas.
• Pricing - Commodity prices weakened in the first quarter, with oil prices impacted by recessionary concerns and natural gas prices impacted by unseasonably warm weather conditions. Despite this commodity price volatility, NuVista's exposure was mitigated by its diversified natural gas portfolio, particularly from volumes delivered into the California market which saw elevated pricing. Realized natural gas pricing weakened in the first quarter of 2023 averaging $7.02/Mcf a 7% decrease as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 at $7.55/ Mcf and a 21% increase as compared to the same period of 2022 at $5.79/Mcf. Realized condensate pricing for the first quarter of 2023 averaged $101.31/Bbl, an 8% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 at $109.69/Bbl and a 15% decrease compared to the same period of 2022 at $119.21/Bbl. Realized NGL pricing for the first quarter of 2023 averaged $39.30/Bbl, a 5% decrease as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 at $41.28/Bbl and 20% lower than the same period of 2022 at $49.30/Bbl.
• Operating costs - For the first quarter of 2023, NuVista's operating expenses on a per Boe basis were $11.71/Boe, a 2% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2022 at $11.94/Boe, and an 8% increase over the same period in 2022 at $10.89/Boe. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, operating costs were impacted by inflationary pressures and higher fuel and utility costs, partially offset by the economies of scale associated with increasing facility capacity utilization through production growth.

NuVista Energy Ltd.

Q1 2023 Management Discussion & Analysis | 3

• Corporate netback - The corporate netback for the first quarter of 2023, including a $1.42/Boe realized loss on financial derivatives, was $32.36/Boe. This was 14% lower than the fourth quarter netback of $37.62/Boe largely impacted by lower commodity prices, and 2% higher than the corporate netback of $31.69/Boe for the first quarter of 2022.
• Net capital expenditures - Net capital expenditures were $169.9 million in the first quarter of 2023, inclusive of capital expenditures of $195.9 million and proceeds from the disposition of a non-operated working interest in an underutilized gas processing facility of $26.0 million. Approximately half of the proceeds will be reinvested to replace the sold processing capacity with higher efficiency operated capacity at the NuVista Elmworth compressor station. In the first quarter of 2023, 72% of NuVista's capital expenditures were allocated to drilling and completion related activities with 12 gross (11.7 net) wells drilled and 17 gross (16.2 net) wells completed.
• Return of capital to shareholders - During the first quarter of 2023, NuVista continued its disciplined and value-adding growth strategy concurrently with continuing the reduction of net debt and return of capital to shareholders. On June 9, 2022, NuVista announced the approval of its normal course issuer bid ("NCIB"). The NCIB allows NuVista to purchase up to 18,190,261 of its outstanding common shares over a 12-month period, commencing June 14, 2022. During the first quarter ended March 31, 2023, NuVista repurchased and subsequently cancelled 1,060,900 common shares at a weighted average price of $11.54/share for a total cost of $12.2 million. As of May 9, 2023, an additional 1,696,761 common shares remain available for repurchase by NuVista under the NCIB. Since inception of the NCIB, repurchases represent a 7.2% reduction in common shares outstanding(1) with 91% of the approved NCIB complete. As the current NCIB will expire on June 13, 2023, NuVista's Board of Directors approved the filing of a renewal application of NuVista's existing NCIB with the TSX. Once approved, it will allow NuVista to buy back up to 10% of its public float as defined by the TSX over a one year period.
  (1) Based on common shares outstanding at May 31, 2022 of 230,748,703.

ENVIRONMENT, SOCIAL & GOVERNANCE ("ESG")

In August 2022, we released our 2021 ESG report which highlights our performance through 2021. We have made significant progress on our ESG targets and continue to advance projects that support and enhance our objectives. For more information regarding our ESG performance and targets, please refer to our 2021 ESG report which is available on our website at www.nuvistaenergy.com.Our 2022 ESG Report is currently in progress and will be released later this year.

Environment

Approximately 60% of our current production is comprised of natural gas which has the lowest carbon footprint of any hydrocarbon. Our ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions led to a 16% reduction in our Scope 1 & 2 GHG intensity for 2021 relative to our 2020 baseline year. Implementation of our GHG reduction plans continued in 2022 and we are now in the process of evaluating results and compiling annual emissions data. We are well on track to achieve our stated goal of realizing a 20% reduction in GHG intensity by 2025. Efforts to reduce flaring, venting and fugitive emissions continue to be a major area of focus for us. Moreover, in late 2022 we achieved FID approval for a cogeneration project at our Wembley Gas Plant with an expected startup in early 2024, which will significantly reduce operating costs, fuel consumption and GHG emissions. More details on our emissions reduction efforts can be found within our annual submissions to the Carbon Disclosure Project. Our 2022 score for the 2021 reporting year was a B; the highest score given across our peer group.

We continue to make strides in the reduction of fresh water use for drilling and completions activities and look to expand our water recycling pilot in our Pipestone South field, which yielded a positive technical result towards our long-term goal of utilizing recycled produced water in our completion operations. We have also increased the usage of non-potable sourced water and municipal waste water throughout our operations.

We had an active abandonment and reclamation program in the first quarter of 2023, spending close to $10 million on the abandonment of inactive wells and pipelines, and progressing environmental reclamation at numerous sites in our Northwest Alberta legacy area. Final abandonment occurred at 10 of the 19 well sites

NuVista Energy Ltd.

Q1 2023 Management Discussion & Analysis | 4