Financials Odakyu Electric Railway Co., Ltd.

Equities

9007

JP3196000008

Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
1,757 ^JPY	-0.23%		+0.57%	-18.32%

Apr. 02	China Factory Outlook Lifts Asian Stock Markets	MT
Apr. 02	Odakyu Group to Switch Fully to Renewable Energy for Operations of Odakyu Line, Hakone Tozan Railway, and Others	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	966,621	861,424	1,098,592	739,806	625,013	628,696	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,555,427	1,477,599	1,754,538	1,468,489	1,258,624	1,171,777	1,147,940	1,139,405
P/E ratio	29.8 x	43.1 x	-27.6 x	61.1 x	15.3 x	8.7 x	15.6 x	17.6 x
Yield	0.78%	0.89%	0.33%	0.49%	1.22%	1.25%	1.48%	1.68%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.84 x	1.61 x	2.85 x	2.06 x	1.58 x	1.53 x	1.5 x	1.47 x
EV / Revenue	2.95 x	2.77 x	4.55 x	4.09 x	3.19 x	2.85 x	2.75 x	2.66 x
EV / EBITDA	15.7 x	16.3 x	64.8 x	26.5 x	16.9 x	12.3 x	11.6 x	11.3 x
EV / FCF	-92.5 x	-88.5 x	-49.1 x	473 x	44.6 x	11.1 x	28.3 x	32.5 x
FCF Yield	-1.08%	-1.13%	-2.04%	0.21%	2.24%	9.05%	3.53%	3.08%
Price to Book	2.53 x	2.23 x	3.14 x	2.13 x	1.61 x	1.41 x	1.32 x	1.25 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	360,276	363,164	363,171	363,184	363,380	357,824	-	-
Reference price ²	2,683	2,372	3,025	2,037	1,720	1,757	1,757	1,757
Announcement Date	4/26/19	5/14/20	4/28/21	4/28/22	4/28/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	526,675	534,132	385,978	358,753	395,159	411,850	418,099	427,644
EBITDA ¹	98,816	90,731	27,068	55,515	74,467	95,425	98,785	100,640
EBIT ¹	52,089	41,103	-24,190	6,152	26,601	47,800	50,772	52,090
Operating Margin	9.89%	7.7%	-6.27%	1.71%	6.73%	11.61%	12.14%	12.18%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	45,194	35,998	-41,261	23,227	58,767	99,600	59,000	50,300
Net income ¹	32,468	19,923	-39,804	12,116	40,736	73,000	40,612	36,009
Net margin	6.16%	3.73%	-10.31%	3.38%	10.31%	17.72%	9.71%	8.42%
EPS ²	90.11	55.08	-109.6	33.36	112.1	202.1	112.7	99.89
Free Cash Flow ¹	-16,821	-16,702	-35,765	3,102	28,216	106,022	40,494	35,065
FCF margin	-3.19%	-3.13%	-9.27%	0.86%	7.14%	25.74%	9.69%	8.2%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	-	5.59%	37.89%	111.11%	40.99%	34.84%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	25.6%	69.27%	145.24%	99.71%	97.38%
Dividend per Share ²	21.00	21.00	10.00	10.00	21.00	22.00	26.00	29.50
Announcement Date	4/26/19	5/14/20	4/28/21	4/28/22	4/28/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	261,766	272,366	167,645	86,422	174,777	92,955	91,021	91,469	98,515	189,984	105,664	99,511	100,527	95,727	196,254	97,379	118,184	100,900	102,400	102,500	121,000
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	25,657	15,446	-19,193	-312	2,808	6,329	-2,985	7,252	7,260	14,512	9,330	2,759	14,620	11,981	26,601	13,822	7,688	13,800	13,300	14,500	7,400
Operating Margin	9.8%	5.67%	-11.45%	-0.36%	1.61%	6.81%	-3.28%	7.93%	7.37%	7.64%	8.83%	2.77%	14.54%	12.52%	13.55%	14.19%	6.51%	13.68%	12.99%	14.15%	6.12%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	24,712	-	-22,886	2,563	15,278	11,722	-3,773	8,423	-	15,623	4,620	-	15,099	-	36,692	7,583	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	16,598	-	-21,280	645	7,986	7,999	-3,869	5,593	4,493	10,086	881	29,769	10,855	15,269	26,124	4,986	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	6.34%	-	-12.69%	0.75%	4.57%	8.61%	-4.25%	6.11%	4.56%	5.31%	0.83%	29.92%	10.8%	15.95%	13.31%	5.12%	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	46.07	-	-58.60	1.770	21.99	22.03	-10.66	15.39	12.37	27.76	2.420	81.93	29.87	42.02	71.89	13.76	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	11.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.00	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	10/31/19	5/14/20	10/30/20	10/29/21	10/29/21	2/9/22	4/28/22	7/29/22	10/28/22	10/28/22	2/8/23	4/28/23	7/28/23	10/31/23	10/31/23	2/8/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	588,806	616,175	655,946	728,683	633,611	543,080	519,244	510,709
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.959 x	6.791 x	24.23 x	13.13 x	8.509 x	5.691 x	5.256 x	5.075 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-16,821	-16,702	-35,765	3,102	28,216	106,022	40,494	35,065
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	8.7%	5.2%	-10.8%	3.5%	11.1%	17.8%	8.81%	7.37%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.81%	2.9%	-2.35%	0.36%	1.96%	4.68%	3.68%	3.27%
Assets ¹	852,678	686,851	1,692,527	3,367,707	2,080,023	1,561,330	1,104,927	1,101,515
Book Value Per Share ²	1,061	1,066	963.0	955.0	1,066	1,244	1,330	1,402
Cash Flow per Share ²	220.0	192.0	31.50	169.0	244.0	341.0	266.0	230.0
Capex ¹	89,554	91,599	62,943	64,693	52,889	58,500	66,667	68,333
Capex / Sales	17%	17.15%	16.31%	18.03%	13.38%	14.2%	15.95%	15.98%
Announcement Date	4/26/19	5/14/20	4/28/21	4/28/22	4/28/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Odakyu Electric Railway Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

UNDERPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

1,757 JPY

Average target price

2,000 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+13.83%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

	1st Jan change	Capi.
ODAKYU ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-18.32%	3.99B
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	-0.50%	22.29B
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORPORATION LIMITED	+17.77%	10.02B
WEST JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+0.78%	9.18B
TOKYU CORPORATION	+8.34%	7.09B
HANKYU HANSHIN HOLDINGS, INC.	-9.24%	6.23B
KEISEI ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD	-11.06%	6.12B
KINTETSU GROUP HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.	-8.41%	4.95B
SEIBU HOLDINGS INC.	+26.72%	4.74B
TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-16.65%	4.15B

Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea