Oppenheimer : Biogen Inc. Maintains Outperform Rating

The Alzheimer's Drug Developer Who Cried Wolf? Forget That

Investors remain skeptical in the wake of Biogen's March 2019 announcement that aducanumab was the latest A-beta antibody to fail in Phase 3 only to update us today with news that it actually succeeded and will be filed for FDA approval. Biogen shares rallied on the news, closing +26% (vs NBI +1% and S&P500 flat 10/22/2019) but couldn't sustain the initial ~35% gain earlier today after investors lost confidence while digesting this unexpected development.

Oppenheimer Analyst are encouraged by the FDA's suggestion to Biogen that aducanumab clinical data from EMERGE, ENGAGE and PRIME could support registration. Our Analysts doubt management would go down this path without solid assurance from the FDA and maintain our Outperform rating. Separately, Biogen delivered solid financial results in the third quarter of 2019, significantly outpacing consensus.

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