Europe hotel performance update
Robin Rossmann - Managing Director
Source: 2020 STR, LLC / STR Global, Ltd. trading as "STR". © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. The information in the presentation should not be construed as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice.
Questions we will look to answer today
Based on insights from high-quality actual achieved and business on the books data from 70,000 hotels around the world
- Where is the world in the recovery cycle?
- Can Europe save it's summer season?
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. | 2 |
Where is the world in the recovery cycle?
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Slow-BBQ'ing meat gives us insight into the shape of hotels recovery
After an initial recovery, demand seems likely to plateau until a 'cure' is found for COVID-19
Typical recovery
shape
COVID-19
recovery shape
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Half way through May most of the world still had restrictions
Level of restrictions on hotels / hotel demand drivers as at May 17
Hotel recovery driver levels
1. Enforced closures
2. Hotels allowed to open
3. Domestic leisure returns 4. Domestic business returns
5. International returns 6. Group returns
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. | 5 |
By the end of May things had started to ease
Level of restrictions on hotels / hotel demand drivers as at May 31
Hotel recovery driver levels
1. Enforced closures
2. Hotels allowed to open
3. Domestic leisure returns 4. Domestic business returns
5. International returns 6. Group returns
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. | 6 |
Now just a handful of countries with enforced hotel closures
Level of restrictions on hotels / hotel demand drivers as at July 13th
Hotel recovery driver levels
1. Enforced closures
2. Hotels allowed to open
3. Domestic leisure returns 4. Domestic business returns
5. International returns 6. Group returns
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
A month ago Europe in red, US emerging and China mixed
Occupancy of reporting (open) hotels in STR sub-markets. Rolling 7 days to 30 May 2020
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. | 8 |
Global Recovery
Occupancy of reporting (open) hotels in STR sub-markets, Rolling 7 days to July 4th 2020
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. | 9 |
Hotels are re-opening at pace
% of hotels closed based on STR sample - Data as at 09.07.2020
United States | Spain | Italy | United Kingdom | France | Poland | Germany | China | |||||||||||||||||||||
100% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
90% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
70% | Spain still 60 - 70% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60% | closed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
France, UK, and Italy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40% | heading towards 50 - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20% | Germany only 15% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10% | closed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0% | China almost fully re- | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
feb-05 | feb-12 | feb-19 | feb-26 | mar-04 | mar-11 | mar-18 | mar-25 | apr-01 | apr-08 | apr-15 | apr-22 | apr-29 | maj-06 | maj-13 | maj-20 | maj-27 | -03jun | -10jun | -17jun | -24jun | 01-jul | 08-jul | open, US not far | |||||
-01jan | -08jan | -15jan | -22jan | -29jan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
behind | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 10
China & US similar. Europe, Africa & LATAM lag. ME & Asia in-between
Occupancy actuals, open hotels (reporting) & full supply (economic), Week ending July 5th
North America
44%
40%
Central America
15%
6%
15%
Europe
27% | Mainland China |
15% | 46% |
Middle East | 46% |
Northern Africa
35% | Asia (excl. Mainland China) | |
12% | 31% | |
27% | 23% | |
8% |
Australia & Oceania
20%40%
South America excl. Venezuela
Reporting Occ
Economic Occ
7%
7%36%
Southern Africa
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 11
China & ME plateau? - US still recovering - Europe awakes
Absolute Rolling 7 days Occ % of participating (open) hotels
China | Europe | Middle East | United States | |||
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
46,3
45,3
35,0
27,4
* China data for week ending June 28 not yet available
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Occupancy on full inventory (economic) much lower for Europe
Absolute Rolling 7 days Occ % of full inventory hotels (economic occupancy)
China | Europe | Middle East | United States | |||
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
45,8
41,9
27,5
15,0
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
China recovery seems to have stalled due to new virus outbreak
Occupancy % change on same week prior year
11-17 May | 18-24 May | 25-31 May | 1-7 June | 8-14 June | 15-21 June | 22-28 June | 29 June-5 July | |||||||
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
1st Tier cities
recovery lagging
-50%
-60%
other cities
Mainland China | 1st Tier Cities | Other Cities |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Are RevPAR's plateauing at 50% below 2019 levels?
RevPAR % change on same week prior year, local currency
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
11-17 May | 18-24 May | 25-31 May | 1-7 June | 8-14 June | 15-21 June | 22-28 June | 29 June-5 July | |||||||
1st Tier cities
recovery lagging
other cities
Mainland China | 1st Tier Cities | Other Cities |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
US recovery continuing towards 50% below 2019…. For now
Total U.S., Rolling 7 day RevPAR % Change and New COVID19 Cases
20% | RevPAR PC | New COVID19 cases | 250 000 |
1,2
0%
200 000
-20%
150 000
-40%
-44,5 100 000 | ||||||||||
-60% | ||||||||||
-80% | 50 000 | |||||||||
-83,6 | ||||||||||
-100% | 0 | |||||||||
15-Feb | 29-Feb | 14-Mar | 28-Mar | 11-Apr | 25-Apr | 9-May | 23-May | 6-Jun | 20-Jun | 4-Jul |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
US Class Performance: Lower End Classes Outperform
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, week ending July 5th 2020
-26,4 | ||
-30,7 | ||
-39,1 | ||
-48,1 | ||
-54,1 | ||
-61,3 | ||
Luxury Class | Upper Upscale | Upscale Class Upper Midscale Midscale Class Economy Class |
Class | Class |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
How quickly can Europe get to temperature?
STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
European country occupancy of open hotels ranges from 10%-40%
Occupancy, open hotels (reporting), Week ending July 5th
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
… but on a full inventory basis things look quite different
Occupancy, open hotels (reporting) & full inventory (economic), Week ending July 5th
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
… and occupancy ranges from 5-25%
Occupancy, open hotels (reporting) & full inventory (economic), Week ending July 5th
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Regional markets are leading the recovery - main cities lag
Occupancy, open hotels, week ending July 5th 2020
Regional | Main City |
67 | ||||||||
55 | ||||||||
47 | 49 | 49 | ||||||
43 | ||||||||
38 | 40 | |||||||
35 | ||||||||
34 | ||||||||
27 | 30 | 28 | ||||||
27 | ||||||||
26 | ||||||||
20 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 22 | ||||
19 | 19 | 18 | ||||||
16 | ||||||||
15 | ||||||||
10 |
Portugal | Denmark | Belgium | Russia | Turkey | Austria Netherlands | Czech | Italy | Switzerland | France | Germany | Finland |
Republic |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Regional markets showing more resilience in rate
ADR change on same week in prior year, local currency, week ending June 28th 2020
Regional | Main City | ||||||||
22 | |||||||||
11 | 12 | ||||||||
2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | ||||||
-3 | |||||||||
-12 | -10 | -8 | -8 | ||||||
-14 | |||||||||
-16 | |||||||||
-18 | -18 | ||||||||
-21 | -22 | ||||||||
-23 | |||||||||
-27 | |||||||||
-29 | |||||||||
-30 | |||||||||
-39 | -38 | -36 | |||||||
-57
Italy | Switzerland Portugal Netherlands Belgium | France | Russia | Turkey | Denmark | Austria | Czech | Germany | Finland |
Republic |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
UK shows this is likely due to change in business mix - not discounting
Weekly rolling 7 days until 4 July 2020. ADR actuals by UK market
London
UK regional
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 25
Now Europe is re-opening is business on books bouncing back?
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 26
Since march, the level of cancellations has been relentless
Aggregated next 83 day pickup for last 18 weeks
Amsterdam Zurich Edinburgh Madrid
4%
2%
0% -2%-4%-6%-8%-10%-12%-14%
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 27
Forward Occupancy next 12 months
Forward Occupancy as at 6th July
Edinburgh | Dublin | Zurich | Amsterdam | Brussels | London | Madrid | Paris | |||||||
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
July | August | September | October | November December | January | February | March | April | May | June |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 28
Positive pick up in next month, mixed thereafter
Pickup from previous month as at 6th July
Edinburgh | Dublin | Zurich | Amsterdam | Brussels | London | Madrid | Paris | |||||||
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
July | August | September | October | November | December | January | February | March | April | May |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 29
Yes, there is short lead life to be seen!
Pickup for next 83 days as at July 6th
Edinburgh | Dublin | Zurich | Amsterdam | Brussels | London | Madrid | Paris | ||||||
10% | |||||||||||||
8% | |||||||||||||
6% | |||||||||||||
4% | |||||||||||||
2% | |||||||||||||
0% | |||||||||||||
-2% | |||||||||||||
-4% | |||||||||||||
-6% | |||||||||||||
-8% | |||||||||||||
06-jul | 13-jul | 20-jul | 27-jul | 03-aug | 10-aug | 17-aug | 24-aug | 31-aug | 07-sep | 14-sep | 21-sep |
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 30
Conclusions
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Our forecasts assume we salvage some summer… but be careful
Europe, monthly occupancy actuals, full inventory, 2019 vs 2020
2019 | 2020 | 2020 Forecast* | ||
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November December |
Forecast data is an average of the European Forecast markets
Source: STR. 2020 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 32
Questions
Source: 2020 STR, LLC / STR Global, Ltd. trading as "STR". © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.
Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR.
The information in the presentation should not be construed as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice.
Nordic Hotel Market Current State
Webinar 2020-07-15
Development since bottom (Nordic capitals)
Occupancy 7 days rolling average 13 Apr - 12 Jul 2020
- Clear upward trend, helped by summer leisure travelers - Stockholm more flat than other capitals
Comparison year on year
Occupancy 7 days rolling average 13 Apr - 12 Jul 2020
- Some markets close to last year's levels - Norway broadly, leisure capitals and Swedish leisure destinations
Recovery path (Sweden)
Occupancy 30 days rolling average 1 Jan - 12 Jul 2020
- Sweden - Slow upward trends with a leisure "kick" in last couple of weeks
Leading the way (short term) - Leisure market (Kalmar)
Occupancy 7 days rolling average 1 Jan - 12 Jul 2020
- Leisure destinations close to or in some exceeding 2019 levels - risk of backlash in virus spread?
Adjusting to a new reality (short term) - MICE market (Sigtuna)
Occupancy 7 days rolling average 1 Jan - 12 Jul 2020
- MICE venues re-focusing on leisure segment and starting to see smaller meetings return (still 50 person limit)
Outlook 12 months forward
Occupancy On the Books Jul 2020 - Jun 2021
Stockholm | Oslo |
Compared to July LY
Pickup last month
Helsingborg | Kalmar |
- Pickup short-term has improved, medium-term more passive - pickup even shorter than a month ago
Outlook OTB short-term (Helsingborg)
Occupancy On the Books per week Jul 2020 - Nov 2021
- Pickup significant 1-4 weeks ahead
Current State Nordic Hotel Market
Summary
- We see the start of a recovery - will it last?
- Occupancy roughly on half the normal levels overall
- Summer started at midsummer - at least in outdoor leisure destinations
- Pickup extremely short - almost entirely leisure, no business and events
- Some destinations suffer more from being cut of from the world
- E g Stockholm
- When will business travel and larger events return?
- How large is the impact from adaptations to online meetings etc?
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Pandox AB published this content on 13 October 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 13 October 2020 12:54:10 UTC